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Sunday, January 1, 2023

Education & Media: Tools of National Cohesion

By Amir Zia
Monthly Hilal
December 2022

Without a common education system, and a common and shared story of our history, the nation building task would remain incomplete and the goal of national cohesion and unity elusive. 

It was sometime in 2010 when I had veteran broadcaster, play-write and one of the pioneer team members of the Pakistan Television, Agha Nasir sahib as a guest on one of my current affairs shows, in which he briefly spoke about the initial days of radio and television in Pakistan and the kind of role they played to promote the Pakistani identity and national cohesion.

Yes, we all know that soon after the partition of British India in August 1947, Pakistan was struggling to set-up new institutions and expand the ones which already existed. Resources were scarce and the challenge of making the new country work and stand on its feet was humongous. In the initial years of independence, Radio Pakistan was the only nerve-center of electronic media in the country, attracting a galaxy of creative minds, including writers, poets, drama artists, singers and musicians. The who’s who of Pakistan’s intellectual world were associated with Radio Pakistan, carved out of the All India Radio. The Pakistan Television made its entry sometime in 1964. Agha Nasir had served both the institutions in their formative phase.
One of the key challenges for the nascent state and its pioneers was countering the Congress propaganda which banked on oneness, the commonality and shared culture and values of the people living under British rule in South Asia. For the Indian National Congress and its followers, the creation of Pakistan was just an aberration in history that would soon be corrected.
But for the founding fathers of the new Muslim homeland, it was the sharp difference and contrast in the religious and cultural values of Muslims and Hindus that led to the creation of Pakistan. And that point had to be asserted and reasserted on every front. The state-run Radio Pakistan and then later, the Pakistan Television were the vanguards of this battle of narratives that raged full blown in the initial decades of independence.
According to Agha Nasir sahib, there was a drive to carve out a separate Pakistani identity in every field. “We even coined new Urdu words for the broadcast medium,” he said. For actor, it was adakar, voice artist, sadakar,musician, musiqar vvvvv, song-writer, naghma-nigar, director, hidayatkar etc., the veteran broadcaster recalled.
This small anecdote shows the passion and the kind of effort the first-generation of Pakistanis put into developing this country on each and every front, focusing even on the small details, like thinking up new words and phrases so that the baggage of British India can be thrown away altogether. We had mega problems, but there was hope and drive. The objective of nation-building was clear. And in the task of nation-building, concepts, perceptions, ideology and narrative take precedence over brick-and-mortar. Yes, only big visions and dreams can make brick-and-mortar work for the nations.
In the initial formative decades of Pakistan, despite the presence of the fringe centrifugal political forces, the dominant narrative stressed on developing the Pakistani identity and the uniqueness of the world’s biggest Muslim state, which the country was at that time until the tragic fall of Dhaka in 1971.
Pakistani cinema, music, radio and television, art, literature, including fiction, poetry and even the genre of detective novels roared in the mainstream of the country in 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, and to an extent in 1980s. The Pakistani public followed Pakistani actors and actresses, many of whom became larger than life personalities in their own right. The soft power of Pakistan was potent, vibrant and growing.


The state-run Radio Pakistan and then later, the Pakistan Television were the vanguards of this battle of narratives that raged full blown in the initial decades of independence.


Compared to the Pakistani media of yesteryears, today there has been massive expansion of electronic media, but its traditional role to inform, educate and entertain stands undermined. When it comes to the news channels, unfortunately they are overwhelmingly contributing to intensifying polarization and creating divide in the society through sensational content, half-truths and ill-informed and biased discussions and opinions. There are hardly any investigative reports, documentaries and even informative news packages aired by any of the dozens of 24/7 news channels. Even entertainment channels appear nowhere when it comes to advancing the national cause. No wonder then it is left to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) to come up with new national songs and even support the production of television plays and movies.
In the Pakistan of yesteryears, Radio Pakistan (the Pakistan Broadcasting Corporation of today) and Pakistan Television used to churn more content for national cohesion and unity than all the private channels and radio stations of today put together.
Coming back to the country’s formative phase, serious work was being done on history to ensure that it helped promote Pakistani identity and contribute to the task of nation-building, overriding ethnic, sectarian and provincial differences and biases.
The first generation Pakistanis were the thought leaders of this unannounced nation-building project and needed no schooling in it. The literacy rate was low, but the educational institutions, including the government-run schools–which were the backbone of the education system–worked and produced future leaders of the nation in every field, from sports to leading scions of civil and military bureaucracy.
The belief was that Pakistan–a bouquet of different languages, and sub-cultures–would develop and help transform them into a grander and bigger Pakistani identity and culture by assimilating them under one umbrella. While the uniqueness of regional languages and sub-cultures would be very much there, this one colourful bunch be the representative of all under the flag.
In the nation-building process, the most important front is education, which also feeds and strengthens the country’s soft power. Education not only leads to national progress and development, but also serves as the main vehicle to bring about national cohesion and unity and develop a common narrative that serves as a bedrock for any state.
Unfortunately, here as a nation, we lack the most. I remember reading in a work of an Islamic scholar that nations get defeated in the battlefield later; they first lose at their educational institutions. And yes, here we are losing the most.
Although an estimated 22.8 million children aged 5-16 years old, representing a massive 44 percent of the total population in this age group are not attending school, according to the United Nations International Children Emergency Fund (UNICEF), still many could argue that the picture is not that bleak on the educational front, given a massive expansion in the number of schools, colleges and universities in the country. They can rightly point out that compared to 1947, Pakistan’s literacy numbers have increased. Yes, the standards of the government-run schools have gone abysmal, but the private sector has come forward to bear the burden. In a nutshell, to many die-hard optimists, the graph is showing signs of improvement.
This may be the case, if one counts the number of buildings, including some very plush and elite educational institutions, but the basic question remains: are they contributing to the goal of nation-building as they should have? 
If on the one hand, the 22.8 million out of school children is a tragedy, on the other, the multiple systems of education and their quality should also be a cause of concern.
In Pakistan, we have not one or two, but many systems of education running parallel to one another. We have seminaries mainly for the poorest of the poor, we have government-run schools–a vast number of which are deprived even of boundary walls, toilets, and clean drinking water along with trained and motivated teachers. Then we have various categories of private-run institutions which cater to the demand from the lower middle class to the elite. The Cambridge system is also there, in which even the Pakistan Studies textbook has been penned by a foreign author.
Instead of uniting the nation, education has become a divider. There is a divide between the Urdu and the English-medium institutions, the divide between seminary and the rest, between institutions of poor and middle class and elite and the rest, between those institutions which follow the Cambridge curriculum and those which do not. The world view and aspirations of students being churned out from each set of these institutions is different from the other. Each for their own bubble and look at the other suspiciously. The system and type of education give a head start to some in their lives and not to the others. Each set wants to create and mold Pakistan according to their own liking. 
In the past few years, there has been an effort to introduce a single national curriculum, which is being resisted tooth and nail by the vested interests as they try to dilute it as best as they can. Even many in the so-called intellectual elite are opposing the single national curriculum. Perhaps they want to see education continue to remain as the main social and class divider in the country. 
While one can rightly debate and argue about the quality and content of the single curriculum, at least on principle, one should agree that there is a need for one. Of course, the intent of the single curriculum should not be seen as dragging down the standard of education, but instead of raising it. For this, a constant review and debate would remain necessary in every generation, so that the national curriculum ensures that students develop a critical thinking and a creative and questioning mind. However, whatever basic education is being given to one set of students should also be given to the other, regardless of the class or which part of the country he/she belongs to.
A special emphasis needs to be given to two languages–Urdu and English and subjects of mathematics, science and Pakistan Studies up to the higher secondary or intermediate level, so that all students have got a common grounding before they embark on higher and more specialized education.
Without a common education system, and a common and shared story of our history, the nation building task would remain incomplete and the goal of national cohesion and unity elusive. Therefore, the project of a single national curriculum should be taken as a state project, which should continue despite the change of governments. Education is the first step and the most important front of the task of nation-building, aimed at promoting Pakistan, its uniqueness and a shared national ethos and ideology.

Editorial: An uncertain new year

Bol News
January 1, 2023

Although no political player or institution seems to take ownership of the rumours concerning the caretaker set-up, with a slightly long term mandate — which ironically has no constitutional provision –, those pushing the case make some strong arguments against the existing set-up.

Pakistan enters a new year amidst speculations about a caretaker government, consisting of technocrats, to be installed. While all the mainstream political parties, including the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), have rejected the idea altogether, there are many leading experts and civil society members who think that under the present circumstances, when Pakistan remains stuck in continuing and aggravating political and economic crises, this remains the only way forward for the country. Although no political player or institution seems to take ownership of the rumours concerning the caretaker set-up, with a slightly long term mandate — which ironically has no constitutional provision –, those pushing the case make some strong arguments against the existing set-up.

Firstly, a government eying the next general elections – whether held early or on time, by October or November, 2023 – will not go for the painful economic and institutional reforms required by Pakistan right now, at this critical juncture. Already, the half-measures taken by the Shehbaz Sharif-led government to get the IMF’s stalled programme back on track under the stewardship of former finance minister Miftah Ismail resulted in a lot of criticism, not just from the general public and the opposition, but also from within the ruling coalition. After Miftah’s departure from the finance ministry, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) brought its so-called ace-economic wizard, Ishaq Dar, to run the economy. But Dar’s antics not just stalled the IMF programme again, but his financial juggling landed Pakistan into a greater economic mess, from where there seems to be no easy way out.

Therefore, to expect the Pakistan Democratic Movement’s (PDM) government to go for any meaningful reforms in the remaining few months in power – at the most eight – would be false expectations. The only way this government could be forced to carry out the reforms will be if it gets a longer mandate, which is not possible without delaying the general elections for a year or two – a desire of some of the PDM’s bigwigs. But even for this, the government will have to do away with Dar type economic management and push for reforms under a new set of financial managers. This is easier said than done on four accounts. One, that under a PML-N government, no one but Dar is seen competent to run the economy because he is not just a close aide of three-time premier Nawaz Sharif, but his son is also married to the self-exiled former premier’s daughter. When family interests are so entrenched, there is hardly any room left for rational and objective decision-making.

The second objection of those calling for an immediate caretaker set-up is that the Shehbaz Sharif government lacks credibility and trust of the people because of the allegations of corruption and misrule against its top leaders. A government lacking credibility and popularity is hardly in a position to push for reforms, and is likely to face stiff resistance from the general public even if it does so.

Thirdly, with an incomplete National Assembly (NA), where one-sided and self-serving legislations are being done, expecting political stability and pushing any agenda for reforms is not just undoable, but even unthinkable. And fourthly, Imran Khan, despite his anti-government campaign having apparently lost steam, remains a potent challenge for the government. The fact that he and his party are staying out of the NA and are in a continuous protest mode will keep the government under pressure and unsettled. Under these circumstances the installation of a caretaker government led by technocrats could act as a buffer between the warring political interest groups and help defuse the situation.

For the PDM, it would mean getting some time to revive its political fortunes, given the public’s short memory. As for the PTI, Imran Khan’s arch nemeses – the Sharifs, Zardaris and Fazl – won’t be in the driving seat. The caretakers can take all the tough economic decisions needed to revive the economy, and create a conducive environment for the next general elections to be held in a transparent and fair manner. However, the first hitch here is who would bell the cat – meaning who will decide the caretakers acceptable to both the rival sets of politicians. The second hitch is how to give legal and constitutional cover to a caretaker set-up beyond its three-month mandate. Here, perhaps the judiciary can step in.

All of this is wishful thinking and speculation for now, without any solid basis and ownership from the powers that matter. However, under these abnormal circumstances, when all else fails, this may prove to be the last option. The plan needs to be seriously explored and implemented before it is too late.

Yes, 2023 welcomes Pakistan with all its uncertainties and risks. May it, hopefully, still be a happy new year!


Stormy Waters

By Amir Zia
January 1, 2023
Bol News

The New Year begins with Pakistan adrift in a sea of economic and political uncertainty

For a politically polarised and economically impoverished Pakistan, the New Year starts on a dismal note. The mega-mess on the country’s political chessboard is stymieing efforts to fix the economy, while the deteriorating macro-economic indicators are fueling political and social chasms. In a nutshell, a myriad of political and economic crises are feeding on one another, pushing the state of Pakistan into unchartered stormy waters. And the ruling elite has no bailout plan — tried, tested or new — to save the country from the shipwreck that is increasingly becoming all too frighteningly possible.

On the economic front, experts say that there are only two options for Pakistan in 2023: implement the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme in totality or face default on foreign debt repayments.

But Finance Minister Ishaq Dar’s obsession with the exchange rate, which he is trying to maintain at artificially high levels by hook or crook, has emerged as the main bone of contention in regard to the release of the 9th IMF tranche due since early November. The IMF wants the foreign currency market to determine the value of the Pakistan currency, while Dar is fixated on keeping the rupee over-valued. This obsession has not just stalled the IMF programme, but created a parallel black market. The continued fall in foreign remittances sent by overseas Pakistanis is the result of a thriving black market.

The outflow of dollars to Afghanistan through illegal means has also become a massive problem for Pakistan. Until the US-led NATO troops remained in Afghanistan, the flow of dollars was the other way round — from Afghanistan to Pakistan.

The other two main IMF demands are energy sector reforms and expanding the tax base. Both these items have been on the agenda of every successive Pakistani government, but none wanted to pay the political price of their implementation.

The IMF wants Pakistan to manage its circular debt now hovering at the staggering level of 3.5 trillion rupees in both the power and gas sectors. This means hiking electricity and gas prices, rationalising both, and slashing their distribution losses.

The IMF also wants the government to mobilise an additional 600 billion rupees through taxes and increased revenues. But all these measures are a big “no” for the Shehbaz Sharif government, which has an eye on the 2023 general elections. But if the government fails to take the steps asked for by the IMF, it will hurt Pakistan even more.

According to experts, the measures suggested by the IMF are painful, but the default on debt repayments will be much more devastating for the country. Yet, reforms are nowhere on the agenda of this beleaguered government, which appears to lack both the capacity and the political will to take unpopular measures. Since coming to power in April, the coalition government of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) has wasted eight precious months by not taking the necessary steps. And if it wastes another eight because of political expediency, the results will be disastrous for the country. Therefore, the first six to eight weeks of 2023 are crucial for economic decision-making and will define which path the government wants to take.

Experts say that while implementing the IMF programme, the government should try to go for a long-term rollover of its short-term liabilities to get some breathing space. The flow of money from friendly countries, like China and the Gulf states, could ease pressure for a month or two, but things will inevitably go back to square-one in the absence of reforms. So minus reforms, borrowing more to settle old loans is a self-defeating exercise. And now, even Pakistan’s longstanding friends appear wary of this never-ending cycle of dishing out loans, one after another.

Indeed, the working and the middle classes, already suffering the brunt of record-high inflation and the economic crunch, will further be squeezed, whether the government implements the IMF programme or not.

The government’s failure to give targeted subsidies is also compounding the problem. The IMF stands opposed to untargeted subsidies, which benefit the rich and the upper classes more than the deserving, at the cost of the national exchequer. These untargeted subsidies need to be stopped — a decision which no government wants to take.

While the industrial output is declining in Pakistan due to the slowdown of the economy, including the government’s measures to curb demand and squeeze imports, another big challenge for the country comes from the agriculture sector. There are fears that the wheat crop will be at least 40 per cent lower in 2023 due to last year’s devastating floods and a steep rise in the prices of Di-ammonium Phosphate, popularly known as DAP, used by farmers for sowing Pakistan’s main food grain. According to the market sources, there has been a steep decline in DAP sales due to its rising cost. This means a likely wheat shortage would aggravate the economic crisis and push up the flour prices even further.

While the economic outlook is bleak, on the political front uncertainty looms large against the backdrop of the seemingly unending confrontation between the key political players. The entire country is guessing whether the highly unpopular Shehbaz Sharif government will be able to cross the August finish-line when the Parliament completes its five-year term, and even if it does, at what cost? With the sword of elections hanging over its head, this coalition government is in a state of paralysis, avoiding those life and death reforms and decisions which are a must to stabilise the economy. Given a chance, it would certainly want to extend the term of the assemblies for a year or more, but that is easier said than done. The paucity of time is the real dilemma for the government. It cannot call early elections given the expected blowback from the voters, reeling because of the record inflation, eroding incomes, and slowdown of economic activity.

So will the economic situation change by the time elections are due in October or November 2023? Even the senior pundits within the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) are not ready to bet on the change of the country’s economic fortunes in such a short time. The pain has to increase before the country’s economic health starts recovering — and that can only happen in time, over a period of two to three years. Therefore, early elections or even those on time do not suit the political parties in the ruling coalition.

The state institutions, too, find themselves cornered and short of choices. The negative perception about many top faces in the Shehbaz Sharif-led government is a millstone around their necks. While the institutions are silently working to politically and economically stabilise the country, taking too much ownership of the PDM – consisting mainly of the Sharifs, Zardaris and Maulana Fazl-ur Rehman & Co. – offers bad optics. Although both the Shehbaz Sharif government and the state institutions are working together for now, they have a history of trust deficit. The Pakistan Army – under the command of the new Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Syed Asim Munir – is spread too thin on many fronts, including fighting the new wave of terrorism. Playing a role to help end the political instability without dirtying their own hands in politics will be a Herculean task for the military high command. Yet, many Pakistanis believe that the Pakistan Army – the country’s most disciplined, organised and modern institution – alone can play a decisive role in disentangling the current political knot the country is mired in.

Meanwhile, the tireless anti-government campaign of former premier Imran Khan seems to have lost momentum after his November 26 Rawalpindi rally. Although the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman remains by far the most popular leader in the country, his anti-government campaign seems to be losing steam. The system and the state have proved too powerful for him – at least for now — as they have managed to stall Imran Khan from dissolving the two provincial assemblies of the Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, which he wanted to do in his bid to force early elections. Imran Khan is playing with an increasingly weak hand because of an unreliable ally in the form of Chief Minister Punjab Chaudhry Pervaiz Elhai and his Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q), and the wavering of many lawmakers within the ranks of his own PTI. The ferocious and no-holds-barred character assassination campaign and the string of cases against him show what awaits him in 2023 as his opponents in the government get relief after relief in mega corruption cases. Despite his massive public support, Imran Khan will have to perform a high-wire act to mend fences with the military establishment and revive the trust of a number of foreign and local stakeholders in the fact that he won’t act just as a spoiler, but will play ball within the conventional boundaries of Pakistan’s statecraft. But for now, it seems 2023 will be a tough year for Imran Khan, even while making the life of his political opponents tough.

In the midst of all this, is the renewed speculation about the installation of a technocratic government with a long-term mandate? While the PTI and apparently the PDM both reject the very idea, it is seen more as a test balloon than fact — at least at present.  However, if someone, somewhere decides to turn the speculation about the technocrat set-up into reality, at least a section of the mainstream political parties will have to take ownership for it – covertly or overtly. In the present scenario, any possible technocrat set-up would suit the PDM, because it would take all the unpleasant decisions and allow the current set of ruling parties to recover from the dent in their following because of their latest stint in power.

In a nutshell, political stability appears elusive in 2023’s Pakistan, where elections appear so near, yet so far.

Thursday, December 1, 2022

Editorial: A Glimmer Of Hope

Editorial 
Bol News 
November 27, 2022 

The announcement of a change of command in the Pakistan Army’s leadership has been hailed across the country – from the corridors of power to the proverbial man on the street.

As the current Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa prepares to hang up his boots on November 29 after a six-year stint in the country’s most powerful office, he leaves behind a highly divided and politically polarized country teetering on the brink of default on its foreign exchange payments.

This is the opposite of what he had inherited when his predecessor, General Raheel Sharif, handed him over the command of Pakistan’s most powerful and respected institution – the Pakistan Army.

At that time, the Pakistan Army was at the zenith of its popularity, particularly for its successes in the war against terrorism, starting an anti-corruption drive within the institution and supporting a similar campaign in the civilian domain.

General Bajwa did carry the momentum forward, but towards the fag end of his career, he lost the plot.

General Bajwa’s abrupt decision of transforming the institution into an “apolitical and neutral” entity is largely being blamed for the country’s current political and economic mess.

Even the Pakistan Army as an institution became controversial as people reacted to the way graft cases against some of the most corruption-tainted politicians collapsed and they got back into power. These developments widened the trust gap between the masses and the ruling elite.

But now it is the time to pick up the pieces. The nation is once again looking towards the Pakistan Army and its new leadership to help bring political stability in the country, which cannot be done until the institution returns back to its traditional role of acting as a stabilizing factor for the state and the strongest guardian of the country’s core national interests, including the Kashmir cause.

The COAS-designate General Asim Munir and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) General Sahir Shamshad Mirza both enjoy tremendous goodwill across the political divide. And that’s the reason expectations are huge from the new military leaders.

Although it is not part of the new-COAS’ job description, the biggest and most pressing item on his list would be the country’s continuing political deadlock and the simmering instability.

This has emerged as the biggest national security risk in recent months as without addressing it, neither a roadmap of economic recovery can be given and implemented, nor foreign relations can be managed.

Stability and unity of action on all these fronts are directly linked with the country’s defence as they fall under the broader ambit of national security. Therefore, defusing political tensions and breaking the deadlock is of prime importance and the new COAS will be forced to play his role in this regard.

Yes, when politicians, as per their tradition, are unable to resolve their differences inside or outside the parliament, it becomes the responsibility of the Pakistan Army to help them find a middle-ground and ensure that they chalk out a roadmap that can take the country forward.

In a developing country like Pakistan, this is a justified demand and expectation from the country’s most disciplined, powerful and modern institution.

The Pakistan Army should not yield to the pressure, propaganda and demand of those foreign and local players, who want to curtail and contain its role in the name of democracy.

Pakistani democracy needs the support of all the state institutions, including the Pakistan Army, to become pro-people, honest and genuinely representative of the people.

For the vast majority of Pakistanis, the support of the Pakistan Armed Forces is vital for the success of the project called democracy in the country that needs to be freed from the clutches of dynastic politicians, elite capture and the corrupt.

Therefore, the army should religiously stick to its traditional role and continue to help the weak civilian institutions improve, reform and deliver. The political parties should also need to review the ground situation objectively and instead of falling prey to the verbosity of civilian supremacy, they need learn to work with the institutions, introduce internal democracy within their ranks and allow not just middle and lower-middle class representation in the parliament but also of the urban working class and the farmers.

As an overwhelmingly youthful Pakistani population craves for a change, the state institutions must facilitate it rather than be seen standing with the tried, tested and failed dynastic politicians. With the change of military command, there are high expectations that the institution will keep itself aligned with the aspirations of the masses in line with the demands of the 21st century rather than sticking with the old political order.

The Hour of the General

By Amir Zia
November 27, 2022
Bol News

More than his epaulets, the new army chief will be carrying the weight of Pakistan on his shoulders


General Asim Munir will take command of the Pakistan Army as its eleventh Chief of Army Staff (COAS) on Tuesday, November 29, amid high expectations that he will act swiftly to pull the country out of the lingering political crisis it is embroiled in, which is having a crippling effect on the economy of the world’s lone Muslim nuclear power.

The burden of expectations on the COAS-designate is huge. On one hand, General Munir will have to manage the traditional internal and external security challenges facing the country, and on the other, he will need to address the domestic political logjam and growing polarisation on a war-footing. The increasing political instability is now seen as posing an existential threat to the country that might even deny the new COAS the traditional settling-in ‘honeymoon’ period. He will be expected to get into the thick of action from day one, regardless of the outgoing Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa’s declaration of the Pak Army’s decision to remain apolitical since February this year.

With the former premier, Imran Khan, now out on the roads with tens of thousands of supporters  demanding early elections in the country, and the Shehbaz Sharif government determined to cling to power despite its growing unpopularity, the politicians have proved once again that they are unable to settle their differences on their own — inside or outside Parliament. Against this backdrop, there is a growing realisation in all segments of society that the system is crumbling. And this is why many eyes are looking towards the GHQ, expecting it to play its traditional role of ensuring stability in the country.

“General Asim Munir won’t be able to remain apolitical – whether he likes it or not,” said Huma Baqai, a prominent analyst and political commentator. “He will have to apply unconventional methods to end this dangerous political polarisation and confrontation, which Pakistan can ill-afford…the new army chief will have to play the role of a bridge either covertly or overtly.”

Other analysts lay the blame for the current state of affairs squarely on the military’s doorstep. They contend that the country became a victim of political instability since the Pakistan Army, under the command of General Qamar Javed Bajwa, announced its policy of being “neutral and apolitical.” Even in his last public speech, General Bajwa asserted this position, which appears unpopular among many Pakistanis, who have always looked towards the Pakistan Army in every moment of crisis. Indeed, for a vast majority of Pakistanis, the army has remained a stabilising force. But this image has taken a hit by the way traditional political dynasties with a horrendous record of corruption and misrule have been allowed to return to power.

For Lt. General (Retired) Ghulam Mustafa, the one silver lining in these tough times is that the appointments of both, the COAS, General Asim Munir, and the Chairman Joint Chief of Staff Committee, General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, have been endorsed by all the political parties and generally welcomed by the people.

“This gives them the moral authority to help defuse the political crisis,” said General Mustafa. “There are huge expectations from the new army chief about playing a role in sorting out this political mess and ensuring that the system continues to work. These are the expectations harbored by the people and the military rank and file. This political crisis is compounding the country’s economic crisis.”

Lt. Gen. (Retired) Naeem Khalid Lodhi also highlighted the expectations of the masses from the new army chief. “People are expecting him to help bridge the political gulf and ensure that all political parties are treated equally. He should play his role in defusing the political tension and make the politicians sit across the table. This would be taking a positive role. It cannot be construed as political interference,” he stated.

Baqai echoed the same line of thinking saying that when politicians fail to find a political solution, others have to act and find one. She maintained, “The new chief will have to demonstrate that he is engaged on behalf of the state and not for the government. This symbolism is vital… he has to operate in a way that he wins the trust of both the political camps.”

Since the ouster of the Imran Khan government in April this year, even many erstwhile die-hard supporters of the Pakistan Army have been criticising the institution, saying that its neutrality and silence helped the most corrupt political dynasties’ return to power.

The anti-corruption narrative was once the bedrock of the Pakistan Army and General Bajwa himself pushed it in his initial years as the COAS.

Analysts say that the new chief will have to work hard to dispel the perception that the Pakistan Army has now become the protector of the corrupt in any way.

General Mustafa said that the public image of the Pakistan Army needs to be restored. “The bond between the people and the barracks and the military rank-and-file with its leadership is vital,” he contended.

Javed Jabbar, Information Minister during the days of General Pervez Musharraf, however, demurred. According to him, the army chief should have no role in ending the country’s political logjam. “It is the responsibility of the politicians … they should stop looking at the military for solutions, and instead take this responsibility upon themselves. The onus lies on them.”

Jabbar added that the new COAS is a highly-rated and acknowledged officer, who has won the sword of honour. “Hopefully in this position, he will review the role of the army and go for a comprehensive disengagement in the civilian domain.”

But the polarised domestic political front is only one of the many pressing challenges which are on the new COAS’ plate.

According to Gen Lodhi, the Shehbaz government does not know or comprehend the new kind of war that has been unleashed against Pakistan. “The TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) is once again carrying out terrorist attacks on our soil, there is trouble in Balochistan, while the Indian generals are threatening Pakistan on a daily basis. Pakistan needs to refocus on the war against terrorism and reassert its position in region,” Gen. Lodhi asserted. “There is also a need to take hold of foreign policy which appears directionless. Relations with China are of prime importance and need to be rejuvenated … And besides the important task of rebuilding the army’s image and review of the security matrix, the new COAS must review the military system to make it affordable, yet maintain its strategic deterrence and operational efficacy in this time of economic crunch.”

General Ghulam Mustafa agreed that foreign relations would also be a front requiring some deft handling by the new COAS. “The national sentiment about Kashmir has to be taken into account… The challenge emanating from India has to be addressed. The new COAS has to give the people confidence that Pakistan is fully capable of countering the Indian threat.”

He, too, asserted that since relations with China appear to be “cooling-off,” they must be revitalised. Similarly, he said, the Afghan Taliban need to be reengaged out of the public glare to secure the western frontiers. The General however, acknowledged that the economic meltdown is the gravest challenge and even the rank and file of the armed forces are affected by the current record inflation.

Baqai spoke of the spate of anti-army propaganda witnessed in recent months. “The new military leadership will have to work hard to address this challenge and restore the image of its institution,” she maintained.

Given the need for a drastic course correction, Pakistanis now fervently hope the new military leadership will act in line with their traditional role and with the aspirations of the people, rather than be seen helping restore the discredited politicians of the 1990s in 21st Century Pakistan.

https://www.bolnews.com/newspaper/national-nerve/2022/11/the-hour-of-the-general/

Ends




Sunday, September 18, 2022

Editorial Ominous Times

Bol Weekly Newspaper
Sept. 18, 2022

The task of putting the house in order starts by bringing in a strong and stable government which enjoys the trust of the masses. This can only be done by calling snap-elections. Those who want this Parliament – with an incomplete National Assembly – to complete its term, want Pakistan to implode from within.

Pakistan remains in the grip of intense political confrontation, instability and uncertainty since the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) announced bringing a no-confidence motion against the then premier Imran Khan in February this year. After all the palace intrigues and buying and selling of lawmakers, finally the vote of no-confidence took place on April 10, which paved the way for Shehbaz Sharif to become Prime Minister in a highly controversial manner. But since then, the political polarisation has only intensified.
Those analysts do not exaggerate when they say that these are the most testing times for the country since 1970-71. Those sharp divisions of led to the East Pakistan debacle against the backdrop of a massive cyclone there. Today, the signs are equally ominous as the divide and confrontation is not just restricted between the political rivals – the PDM versus Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), but it has seeped into the very core of our civil society and institutions.
In the 1970s, if the core of the problem was the power and economic imbalance between the Eastern and Western wings of Pakistan, today the political division and discord is over whether the country should again be handed over to the corruption-tainted political dynasties through a dubious and flawed process in the name of democracy and parliament.
Attached to this question are other fundamental issues that include reforming this non-performing parliamentary system, which is elitist in nature and deny people belonging to the middle and the lower-middle classes, and workers and peasants a representation in the law and decision-making process. The tried, tested and failed system allows politicians to run political parties like their personal or family fiefdoms, and condones and encourages corruption, nepotism and the elite capture of the national resources. The 18th amendment, which has allowed provinces to function as states within a state, and the flawed distribution formula of the national resources in which the centre remains responsible for all the responsibilities, but without any money, has made Pakistan unsustainable. Against this backdrop, Imran Khan’s call for the creation of smaller provinces, accountability of the corrupt and sweeping political and economic reforms backed by an independent foreign policy makes sense. Whether his own party, the PTI, has the capacity and ability to make this happen is a separate discussion.
The crux of the matter is that Pakistan under the current form appears to be getting weaker, and more and more unmanageable and ungovernable with each passing day. The situation has become even more complicated because of one of the worst natural calamities that has befallen Pakistan in the form of devastating floods. This has aggravated Pakistan’s already precarious economic situation. There is a need to put an immediate halt to this non-stop steep deterioration.
But the question remains where to start? An unpopular, controversial coalition government, which itself is mired with unresolvable internal contradictions, is unable to give any direction and pull the country out of this political and economic quagmire. The past five months are a living proof of how the Shehbaz Sharif government has failed the country on every front, particularly the economy. Inflation is hovering at more than 27 percent – a 49 year high. The rupee is taking a beating against the dollar every day. Economic activity had slowed down even before the floods hit the country. The body language of the government stalwarts – from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to Finance Minister Miftah Ismail – is defeatist as they fail to convince the big businesses and corporates to bet on Pakistan.
The task of putting the house in order starts by bringing in a strong and stable government which enjoys the trust of the masses. This can only be done by calling snap-elections. Those who want this Parliament – with an incomplete National Assembly – to complete its term, want Pakistan to implode from within. They just want to serve their personal agenda and narrow political interests. A country of more than 220 million people cannot be allowed to ruin itself on the whims and fancies of a handful of individuals or political dynasties.
The state institutions – particularly the Pakistan Army and the judiciary – must act before it is too late for the country. They should facilitate the installation of an independent caretaker setup with a clear roadmap for the next general elections. Anything short of that and any delays would only damage Pakistan. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

Imran Khan’s New Gamble

Former premier’s proposal to defer the appointment of the new army chief raises hopes of a breakthrough in the lingering stalemate, but insiders say the political tussle remains far from over

By Amir Zia
Sept. 18. 2022
Bol Weekly Newspaper



F
ormer prime minister Imran Khan has created waves in the murky waters of Pakistani politics with his call for “deferring” the appointment of the new army chief until fresh elections are held, but senior officials of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) say the proposal does not mean that the party’s top leaders have established any formal contacts with the military establishment.
“There has been no official response either from Rawalpindi or Islamabad as to whether they have accepted or rejected this idea,” a close aide of Imran Khan told Bol News. “But they are under tremendous pressure because their strategy to bring economic and political stability in the country has totally failed.”
Imran Khan had said in an interview given to senior journalist Kamran Khan on Monday, 12 September, that the minority Shehbaz Sharif government which only has 85 seats of its own in the National Assembly should not appoint the new army chief, and that this important decision should be left to the new government.
However, a number of senior leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) have rejected Imran Khan’s proposal, saying the appointment of the new army chief remains a prerogative of the prime minister, whether or not Mr. Khan likes it.
The incumbent Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), General Qamar Javed Bajwa, is set to retire in November after completing his second three-year term in office. Imran Khan’s supporters say that this important appointment should be made by the new government rather than what they call the “corruption-tainted” politicians.
Imran Khan’s aide, who requested anonymity, said that his party wanted early elections in the country without resorting to any “conflict or bloodshed.”
“But there are serious moves to get Imran Khan disqualified,” he said. “Those in power must remember that when Nawaz Sharif was disqualified from holding public office, or when doors of domestic politics were slammed on Altaf Hussain, they both were among the most unpopular politicians. Here you have a leader who is already at the zenith of his popularity.”
Another senior PTI official said that Imran Khan had not proposed that General Bajwa be given another extension. “What he meant was that a status-quo should be maintained until the holding of the next elections. By doing this, Imran Khan has given a way out to the army to defuse political tensions and prevent any controversy for the new army chief if he is appointed by a compromised set of politicians.”
A senior army official, while explaining the process of the army chief’s appointment, said that there are important matters which cannot be deferred or put on hold because of politics.
“Appointment of the army chief is the prime minister’s responsibility. He can pick any Lieutenant General among the top four or five on the seniority list for this slot. It hardly matters whether he is selected by prime minister ‘A’ or prime minister ‘B’. The system should work as per the Constitution… there is a chain of appointments that follows once this decision is made.”
The PTI sources allege that the entire system is working to damage and erode the support-base of their party.
“They are targeting Imran Khan and trying to dismantle our party… there has been a multi-front assault on us. They tried to bring a change in the provincial government in Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa, but failed. Now the same effort is on in Punjab,” the PTI official said.
Imran Khan, too, has made the same allegations in his public meetings.
The PTI official also alleged that the PTI lawmakers and leaders are receiving threatening calls in which they are asked to change their loyalties.”
“The minus-one formula (minus Imran Khan) is on top of their agenda. The powers that be know that without Imran Khan, the PTI would collapse.”
Multiple PTI sources say that Imran Khan appears determined to give a final protest call sooner than later. “It will be done this month. There will be agitation.”
However, the former premier’s aide said that defusing political polarization should be on top of the agenda. “The government should be clear that eventually they will have to go for elections. The longer the government delays it, the more unpopular it is going to become because they are unable to manage the economy which is likely to worsen further in the days ahead. Therefore, early elections should also suit them.”
He said that the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) – comprising the PML-N, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and others – committed a blunder by shooting down the proposal of early elections by Prime Minister Imran Khan when it was conveyed to them through the COAS. “If elections were held at that time, the fight would have been even. But now it will be a landslide victory for the PTI.”
A senior PML-N leader and a close aide of Nawaz Sharif, who spoke on condition of anonymity, admitted that early elections remain the only way out of this simmering political and economic crisis.
“I am not saying that the economic mess would go away the moment elections are held. But a new elected government would come with a fresh mandate and would be in a better position to take long-term economic decisions, something this government can’t do,” he said.
Admitting that the PDM leadership made a mistake by forcing the no-confidence motion against Imran Khan in April this year, he said it had revived Mr. Khan’s politics and popularity.
“During a year between March 2021 and February 2022, the PTI won only one out of 13 seats to which by-elections were held. It also lost recent local bodies elections in Cantonment areas… as well as in the PTI-ruled KP province during the first phase. But now the tide has turned. One example is the NA-245 by-election in Karachi, where the government-backed candidate lost against the PTI with a huge margin despite support from the federal, provincial as well as the city governments. But irrespective of who wins or loses, Pakistan needs to go for elections. No government can deliver without having a complete five-year mandate,” the PML-N leader said.
Another PML-N leader, who hails from Karachi and enjoys close ties with Nawaz Sharif, said the current polarisation and divisions are dangerous for the state. “There is a division not just in society, but also within the institutions. The best solution would be that each institution works within its constitutional parameters. As far as Imran Khan is concerned, his brinkmanship won’t pay off as the contempt of court case is of a serious nature. He and his party would soon be history.” 
However, the PML-N leader quoted earlier differs with this view. “The Imran Khan phenomenon won’t go away by banning him from politics. He will be back on D-Chowk in case he is artificially ousted. Therefore, elections remain the only way forward.”

Education & Media: Tools of National Cohesion

By Amir Zia Monthly Hilal December 2022 Without a common education system, and a common and shared story of our history, the nation building...