The HazeOf Talks

By Amir Zia
Monday, Sept 23, 2013
The News

Our salvation lies in talks, even repeating the mantra of talks for the sake of talks. Come hell or fire, let’s talk. This is all we can do.
 
It is heartening to know that Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan has told the National Assembly on September 19 that there won’t be any change “in the government’s position on talks with (the local) Taliban” even after the assassination of Maj-Gen Sanaullah Khan and other Pakistan Army personnel in a roadside bomb explosion in Upper Dir earlier this month. This is what one may call courageously keeping on course for peace come hell or high water.
The same day, the Foreign Office said that dialogue with the local Taliban remains Pakistan’s “internal affair” and any “reaction” from the outside world would be considered as interference in Pakistan’s “domestic affairs.” These are also brave words underlining the government’s unwavering resolve of brokering peace with the Al-Qaeda-inspired-and-linked local militants, who just want to use the Pakistani territory to foment violence and terrorism in various parts of the world to punish ‘infidels’ and impose their brand of Islam in the country by getting rid of the ‘evil democratic system’ and its ‘satanic constitution’.
The day these inspiring and morale-boosting words of our interior minister and Foreign Office were carried in this newspaper, a front-page news story also informed that a bombing at a Peshawar mosque killed three people. These worshippers were attending a ‘Mehfil-e-Naat’ when the attack occurred. Also the same day, there was a report of a hand grenade attack at an Imam Bargah in Karachi, killing one person and wounding16 others.
The same paper enlightened us that militants handed over a list of 50 prisoners to the ruling party’s former lawmaker, Ibrahim Paracha, demanding their release.
This snapshot of one day’s The News shows that the Islamic Republic – Mashallah – is heading in the right direction. Sooner or later – Inshallah – there will be a peace deal with these ‘soldiers of Islam’ and we will live happily after. Let’s not doubt it – for we are a people of great faith.
The few deaths reported in the media are nothing but just faceless numbers. After all we have seen and lived through much worse and blood-soaked days. An addition of a few more bodies, probably a dozen, a hundred or two hundred, or perhaps more – say thousand or a couple of thousands – in the small, negligible pile of 50,000 plus such victims of terrorism that also include more than 4,000 security personnel, can be endured.
Pain, trauma, loss and grief are nothing more than unnecessary adjectives. Sooner or later, this emotional phase will fade away. Time will heal every wound. Statesmanship requires delicate navigation through the minefield of those insane voices that cry for a crackdown on these God-fearing, pious, religiously upright and brave fighters of Islam, who just want to run a state within state and expand their turf from the mountainous tribal areas to the settled areas – from Peshawar to Karachi – which have now become unsettled thanks to their holy interventions.
The only small offence of these devout warriors, if one may like to call it, is of carrying out a string of bombings at countless mosques, shrines, congested bazaars, a few hotels, attacking the military headquarters and a handful of other sensitive installations and slitting throats of soldiers, paramilitary troops etc. And that too, spanning just over a decade or slightly more. These small ‘actions’ and slight breaches of law can be forgiven and forgotten for the sake of peace – perhaps at their terms in the larger national interest.
Yes, the geographical and ideological boundaries of the world’s lone Islamic nuclear power remain secure. The small problem of Pakistani armed forces and their installations being unsafe within the country is a mere footnote. It should not raise any eyebrows. As our prime minister has rightly said following the killing of the major general that the armed forces have made “substantial” sacrifices in this unwanted conflict. In the course of time, these substantial sacrifices have the chance of becoming great sacrifices as the militants continue to fight, while our rulers implore and beg for talks.
Those calling for fighting the local Taliban, their allied bands of warriors organised under the banner of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Jandullah, this jaish or that harkat, their dissident factions, or faceless cells are western stooges (please read: American agents).
These misguided ones are working against Pakistan by asking the state to establish its writ on its territory. How can that be? The Islamic Emirates of Pakistan…(oops sorry, it is still an Islamic Republic) is the fortress of Islam. If not under a stated policy, at least in practice, here all are free to do whatever they want in the name of Islam. This not only includes Pakistani fighters, but Arabs, Chechens, Uzbeks, Afghans, Indonesians…whosoever manages to sneak in or openly walk into the country.
The former military ruler unnecessarily provoked holy warriors when he tried to stop them from operating from the Pakistani soil. He should not have listened to the world or the United Nations Security Council. Rather some direct advice from Afghan Ameerul Mominneen Mullah Omar, or the martyred Osama bin Laden or any of his aides should have been the preferred choice. Even the wise counsel of clerics of the Lal Mosque in Islamabad or leaders of the once active Pak-Afghan Defence Council would have served him and the country better.
The government should talk to the TTP and its likes without any preconditions. And it won’t be any crime if for the sake of talks, the government yields to some or all of their demands, including pulling out troops from some of the militants’ infested areas. If our estranged brothers continue to explode bombs, the government must make bigger bangs by issuing statements and crying for talks. If they attack and kill our soldiers, officers and civilians, we must continue to stay on the righteous course of negotiations. The holy ones should remain free to kick and punch us (metaphorically speaking as in reality they simply kill), violate the law of the land, undermine the country’s sovereignty, but we should still talk of peace and negotiations – for they are one of us.
The government’s policy of repeating the mantra of national pride, national security, and sovereignty of the state can only be advanced through the September 9 All-Parties Conference resolutions, which also plead for talks with militants. Our words speak louder. Who cares about actions? Inaction, coupled by high-sounding words and phrases should be able to do the trick for us. Therefore, the government must talk, talk, and talk to everyone…we must wheel and deal with militants. The issues of world reaction or the use of Pakistani territory for terrorism around the world will be dealt with later. We must have faith that the free world and the brother Islamic countries will come to rescue us at the last minute no matter what we do.
In this stream of consciousness or unconsciousness – depending on how one takes it – the government should also abandon the operation in Karachi against all the politically-connected gangsters, extortionists, kidnappers, and killers and instead talk to them. The operation is a waste of time and energy. Given our record, we don’t have much appetite or spine for fighting. After all, the local Tehreek-e-Taliban also indulges in many of these small crimes. When the government can talk to one set of militants or criminals – whatever a reader would like to call them – then why not the other?
The ruling Pakistan Muslim League, its band of allies, the opposition – those forces that attended the APC and hold the destiny of the 180 million plus Pakistanis in their hands – represent the collective wisdom and will of this nation. We must believe in the sagacity and political acumen of the APC leaders. Like the past, they never can be wrong and can make no mistakes. The government should not pay any heed to those advocating the use of force against militants. Our salvation lies in talks, even repeating the mantra of talks for the sake of talks. Come hell or fire, let’s talk. This is all we can do.

Inviting Catastrophe

By Amir Zia
The News
September 16, 2013

Emotional posturing against the US drone strikes and attempts to neutralise terrorists through the policy of appeasement are not going to help.  

It is now official. By offering talks to the ‘Pakistani Taliban’, the government-sponsored All-Parties Conference (APC) has formally handed over a strategic and morale-boosting advantage to the Al-Qaeda inspired and linked local extremists operating in the tribal areas of the country. 
The APC resolution of September 9 gives a loud and clear message to insurgents as well as to the world that the Pakistani state is too weak to stand against a determined and resolute enemy and lacks the capacity and will to establish its writ. Rather than dispensing justice and working towards establishing rule of law, it prefers to negotiate and wheel and deal with those non-state actors who are responsible for slaying thousands of Pakistani soldiers, attacking sensitive military installations and killing countless innocent civilians, including women and children.
The ‘collective wisdom’ of our ruling elite as reflected in the APC resolution should send shivers down the spines of all those patriotic Pakistanis committed to Quaid-e-Azam Mohammed Ali Jinnah’s vision of a modern, progressive and democratic Pakistan. The declaration fails to grasp the gravity of the situation. It appears simplistic and naïve in tone and content and follows the tried, tested and failed strategy of appeasing extremists who defy and challenge the constitution and sovereignty of the state. This APC declaration would serve to further embolden violent non-state actors, and their supporters, who are trying to expand influence, dictate terms and run a state within the state.
Although the declaration says that “the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Pakistan are paramount and must be safeguarded at all costs”, in reality and in spirit it has undermined the state and its institutions. By offering talks, the civil and military leadership has implicitly accepted these militants as equal and legitimate stakeholders, forgiving and forgetting all their heinous crimes and atrocities committed in the sacred name of Islam. This policy will have dangerous implications for the country’s politics and encourage other such shadowy players – organised under the banner of various lashkars, sipahs and jamiats – to follow similar tactics. It is also a blow to the morale and confidence of all those who supported and stood loyal to the state and made sacrifices in this conflict. 
Interior Minister Chaudhary Nisar’s ‘innocent’ assertion that “a dictator” dragged Pakistan into this unwanted and unnecessary conflict is flawed and exposes the limits of his imagination.
The conflict started when the then government, in line with its international responsibility and resolutions of the United Nations Security Council, attempted to ensure that Pakistani territory was not used for planning and fomenting terrorism and violence in neighbouring countries and around the world. This international obligation meant eradication of terrorists’ safe havens in the tribal areas where thousands of foreign militants and their local supporters have been operating. 
The facts speak for themselves. 
Osama bin Laden was found hiding on Pakistani soil. So are many other kingpins of Al-Qaeda and other extremist groups from Chechens to Uzbeks and Indonesians to Afghans. Pakistani authorities had been pressing the local warlords to abandon their support to these foreigners and hand them over to their respective countries for justice. But such a deal couldn’t be pulled through. Had the security forces not moved against these militants and attempted to establish the writ of the state in these areas, we would have been witnessing more than US drone attacks on our soil.
However, Pakistan’s internal contradictions and the mishandling of the war against terrorism by the United States and its Nato allies, in which they failed to address Islamabad’s concerns about Afghanistan’s 21st century Great Game, prevented a just solution to this conflict. But this does not mean that Pakistan should shut its eyes to the presence of international terrorists and their local allies, who have both regional and global ambitions. Dealing with these elements remains in our national interest and is a must to avoid making Pakistan a pariah state. The policy of self-denial followed by the mainstream political and religious parties won’t help Pakistan.
The international fallout should not be the only concern. Defeating these forces and the extremist mindset is all the more important for Pakistan’s own sake to prevent it from sliding into complete anarchy and collapse.
Ironically, none of the political parties including those which portray themselves as democratic, liberal and secular, have been able to raise themselves to the challenge and come up with a strong counter narrative to the religious and right-wing parties which have been acting as cheerleaders of the extremists and declaring this conflict for Pakistan’s survival as an ‘American war’.
The bitter fact is that the civilian leadership has been failing to give the much-needed support to the armed forces which have been acting as the vanguard in this conflict and declaring it to be ‘Pakistan’s war’.
Another ominous sign is that like the previous two APCs, the latest one also fell short of defining the rules of engagement or setting any pre-conditions for talks. Any negotiations between two forces are a game of give and take. The question is what the government plans to concede to the militants. Will it allow foreign extremists to continue to operate from Pakistan’s territory unchallenged and unchecked? 
Will it allow them to rule parts of Pakistan according to their narrow and controversial interpretation of Islam, which has few takers even among learned ulema and clerics and the majority of Pakistani Muslims? Will it free all the terrorists and return the weapons and ammunition seized from their possession? Will it concede that Pakistan’s constitution is against the principles of Islam and democracy is an ‘evil system’? And will the government agree to pull back troops from the restive tribal areas to appease these militants? All these remain pertinent questions and need categorical answers not just from the government but all those political forces that advocate talks with the militants. 
It is also shocking that our political leadership seems to take these non-state actors as a monolith force with a central command and control. Our security establishment must have explained Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, his close aides and the leaders of the main opposition parties the complex nature of this extremist challenge in which sectarian, Islamist, pan-Islamist and Afghanistan-specific small and big bands of warriors and terrorists overlap and support one another’s efforts as well as carry out operations independently. There are cells and sub-cells within each group, many of which see the Pakistan Army as their number one enemy. These forces are targeting the armed forces directly as well as trying to penetrate its ranks.
The APC’s declaration that “we reaffirm our complete trust and confidence in our valiant armed forces and assure them of our full solidarity and support in overcoming any challenge to our national security or threat to our national interests” is simply not enough. The politicians will have to match their words with actions.
It is sad to see the intellectual bankruptcy and dishonesty of the civilian leadership, which remains unable to grasp the seriousness and enormity of the challenge posed by the extremist and terrorist groups. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his team seem devoid of the resolve, courage and ideas needed to pull the country out of this crisis. In fact, they have become hostage to those elements that want to keep Pakistan in the pit.
Emotional posturing against the US drone strikes and attempts to neutralise terrorists through the policy of appeasement are not going to help. The only way forward is to defeat these parochial forces by evolving a holistic counter-terrorism strategy, which should include both the determined use of force and challenging them ideologically on each every platform. 
But so far there are no signs that our leaders are prepared to do what is required of them. They are applying the same failed formula and are hoping to get a different result. Yes, we are sleepwalking towards an imminent disaster. Despite all these bombings, suicide attacks, jailbreaks and targeted killings, our leaders refuse to open their eyes and see the danger.

The Sensible Course

By Amir Zia
The News
Wednesday, June 13, 2012

The tense Pakistan-US relations can only be good news for Al-Qaeda, the Afghan and the Pakistani Taliban and of course their cheerleaders in the country’s mainstream religious and rightwing parties opposed to Islamabad’s cooperation in the international effort against terrorism. But this bodes ill for Pakistan’s long-term geo-strategic and economic interests.


The tidings from Washington are getting ominous for Pakistan. In yet another sign of worsening ties, the Pentagon announced withdrawal of its negotiators from Pakistan after weeks of talks over the reopening of Nato supply routes into Afghanistan ended in failure. Though the Pentagon tried to give a diplomatic gloss to its decision by saying that the United States remains willing for dialogue over the issue, there are clear indications that the gridlock between the two sides is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.

Earlier, Washington’s frustration with Pakistan was highlighted by US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta, who in hard-hitting statements made in New Delhi, Kabul and Washington in a span of less than a week, reiterated his government’s position of no letup in drone strikes on what it terms Al- Qaeda and Taliban militants hiding in Pakistan’s northern region. His warning that the United States was “losing patience” with Islamabad over its failure to eliminate safe havens for insurgents reflects the growing chasm and distrust between these two uneasy allies in more than a decade-long war on terrorism. In the words of Panetta, the United States is now at war in Pakistan’s Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (Fata) from where militants allegedly mount cross-border attacks on US forces in Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s efforts to underplay these statements – now being echoed at the highest level of the US administration and Congress – and cliché-ridden diplomatic explanations that the country will follow its well-thought-out strategy to eradicate terrorism under its own timeline, falls too short, given the grave challenge it faces on the external and internal fronts. The point is that it’s not business as usual in Pakistan-US relations and the country’s international isolation is growing. Under the current civilian and military leadership, Pakistan has not only lost its initiative – which once it had – in the fight against Al-Qaeda and its inspired local militants, but is increasingly seen as an unwilling partner in the UN-mandated international efforts against terrorism. This lack of drive in combating terrorism stands in stark contrast to former military ruler Pervez Musharraf’s days in which quick decisions were taken on crucial foreign policy issues and there was a sea-change in the way Pakistan dealt with militants.
The tense Pakistan-US relations can only be good news for Al-Qaeda, the Afghan and the Pakistani Taliban and of course their cheerleaders in the country’s mainstream religious and rightwing parties opposed to Islamabad’s cooperation in the international effort against terrorism. But this bodes ill for Pakistan’s long-term geo-strategic and economic interests.
In politics, be it national or international, perceptions matters the most. And the hard fact is that today the international perception about Pakistan’s commitment in the war on terrorism remains highly questionable. The country is seen as a safe haven for terrorists from across the globe. In many high-profile terrorist incidents not just in the region, but around the world, investigation threads often lead towards Pakistan.
The Haqqani network, the Al-Qaeda operatives and the Afghan Taliban – from their lowly soldiers to their leaders – all have footprints on our soil and allegedly use it to rest, regroup and plan assaults across the porous border into Afghanistan. The response of Pakistan’s current civil and military leadership to this perception appears to be that of self-denial and their position of tackling the problem at their own sweet pace lacks the urgency which the international community demands from them. No wonder, Pakistani narrative finds few takers in important world capitals. This, indeed, is sad, given the fact that Pakistan paid a far higher price than the US and any of its Nato allies in this war, with more than 36,000 dead that include thousands of security personnel.
The recent killing of Al-Qaeda’s number two, Abu Yahya al-Libi, in a US drone attack in a village of North Waziristan, has come as yet another blow to Pakistan, where terror mastermind Osama bin Laden was also killed by the US Marines in May last year. These high-profile killings of Al-Qaeda leaders and operatives came against the backdrop of continued rejections of charges by top Pakistani officials about the presence of militant leadership in the country. But the killing of al-Libi again exposed these statements and undermined Islamabad’s demand for a halt to US drone attacks, which have been fairly effective in targeting militants despite concerns about civilian deaths in collateral damage.
The surge in the number of drone attacks under US President Barrack Obama’s administration – seen as one of the key stumbling blocks in Pakistan-US relations – has resulted largely because of Pakistan’s inability or unwillingness to act against foreign and local militants. From the US point-of-view, the logic is simple: if you can’t act against them, we will.
Given the high-stakes in Afghanistan’s endgame in which Nato allies plan to end their combat operation sometime in 2013 and hand over security to Afghan security forces, Pakistan indeed appears an odd man out as its leadership drags its feet in going for decisive steps to combat the twin ghost of extremism and terrorism that also threaten its own stability and future.
Since Bin Laden’s killing, which embarrassed Pakistan’s military establishment, there has been a rapid deterioration in relations between the two sides as Pakistan curtailed cooperation in the fight against terrorism. The attack of US choppers on the Salala check post in November that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers proved to be the proverbial last straw, following which Islamabad closed the Nato supply routes.
As anti-American sentiment was drummed up in an organised manner through different shades of legal and banned religious groups, as well as rightwing leaders like Imran Khan, the mainstream political parties present in parliament got swayed away under what is being dubbed as “popular pressure,” rather than moving quickly on addressing the fundamental issues marring Pakistan-US relations. The civilian and military leadership failed to give a vision and direction to Pakistan’s foreign and geostrategic policy keeping in view the new realities and challenges. Apparently, they remain stuck with the old game of keeping a few options handy among militants on the assumptions that it will be back to the good old days of 1990s once the United States and Nato troops end combat operations in Afghanistan. But the world has changed and the old games of duplicity in the stated policy and covert action won’t take us anywhere.
The brinkmanship in relations with the United States on account of the Salala post tragedy and connecting it to unrelated issues including revision of Nato cargo tariff upwards is in no way any kind of statesmanship. Instead of trying to resolve the issue on a war footing, the government wasted precious time in emotional debate in parliament and tried to play the popular card rather than leading and moulding public opinion for a sensible and rational solution. When the United States wanted to get over Salala after issuing an apology, we jacked up stakes from where it is now difficult for the civil and military leaders to climb down without losing face.
In the US election year, Obama will be more aggressive in getting results on the Afghan warfront as he wants to be seen as a strong leader. Expecting concessions at this crucial juncture from his administration is too unrealistic. On the other hand, the Pakistani establishment’s strategy, if there is one, appears to wait for the exit of the US and Nato troops and then show its cards. Therefore, to expect a breakthrough in the impasse seems a fry cry in the coming months, which will have its negative repercussions on Pakistan especially its economy. For Islamabad, the sensible course should be to keep itself aligned with the international community, rather than going for an adventurous course. But perhaps common sense and rationality is too much to ask in the Land of the Pure.

The Inner Conflict

By Amir Zia
Newsline
June 2011

Time has run out – we must decide: are we with the terrorists or against them?

Are the drone attacks a bigger challenge for our sovereignty, or those bands of foreign and local militants, who freely roam around establishing a state within a state, masterminding and planning acts of terror and sabotage across Pakistan? What undermines Pakistan’s security more, unilateral action by US forces against Osama bin Laden, or the fact that the terror mastermind remained hidden here for years?
Today, these fundamental questions are not only polarising an already ideologically divided country, but are likely to play a pivotal role in determining its future. The manner, in which state institutions, civil society, political parties and other stakeholders tackle these questions and influence the narrative, it will either help align Pakistan with the international community, or put it in the category of a pariah state. There is no third option.
Sticking to the controversial 1980s-era policy of supporting, nurturing and protecting non-state actors and using Islamic militant groups as proxies in both Afghanistan and India, will not work now. Times have changed and carrying the burden and vision of General Zia-ul-Haq any further will only wreck the country. The long-followed policies of double-speak and duplicity, are already demonstrating disastrous results. The sooner our ruling elite realises this, the better. Pakistan needs clarity of mind and action so it can earn a place in the comity of nations.
It is an irony that the country which has suffered the most in the decade-long war on terrorism, appears unable to set its priorities right. The ongoing suicide bombings and terror assaults, from one end of Pakistan to the other, have claimed the lives of more than 30,000 civilians and 5,000 security officials. Al Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban and their other local allies have hit every segment of society and each institution that matters. From mosques to schools, posh hotels to bustling markets, military headquarters to police stations – all have suffered the brunt of terrorism and the common man has paid in blood and tears.
Yet state institutions have been selective when it comes to tackling these elements. Even when militants and their masterminds have been dealt with by military might, the state has failed to fight this battle on the ideological and political fronts. The breeding grounds of extremism remain untouched.
Against this backdrop then, an organised and vocal minority led by religious parties, right-wing opinion-makers and politicians are succeeding in convincing Pakistanis that their security, sovereignty and national pride is hurt more by US drones, which target militants, than by the militants who murder Pakistani citizens.
Consider how the Jamaat-e-Islami, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam and Imran Khan will conduct widely-publicised ‘dharnas’ against the drone attacks, but not even protest, let alone stage a rally to condemn suicide bombings or the masterminds of terrorism. The religious right continues to incite people about unilateral action by the US to take out OBL, but does not question what bin Laden, his wives and children were doing holed up in a garrison town in Pakistan. Why do they not ask if bin Laden was here on a visa, or whether Islamabad had bestowed Pakistani nationality on him and his family? Or question why international terrorists gravitate towards Pakistan and manage to find a support structure here that not only permits them to conceal themselves, but also recruit other extremists and flourish.
When President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani publicly welcomed the elimination of the world’s most-wanted terrorist, it was an appropriate and welcome response, since Pakistan has been one of the biggest victims of Al Qaeda-inspired terror. But soon thereafter, the country’s religious parties and right-wing politicians –¬ many without any representation in parliament – managed to swing the direction of the national debate to what they bellowed was an attack on Pakistan’s sovereignty. Resultantly, mainstream parties, including the ones in the ruling coalition, caved in to the pressure and decided to flow with the tide.
The result: a unanimous parliamentary motion on May 14, which rather than taking into account the challenge of extremism and militancy, vigorously condemned the Abbottabad operation by the US and drone attacks.
Gradually, all attempts at objective self-criticism, debate about the future course of action and willingness to take responsibility gave way to denial, hysteria and finger-pointing. The unanimous resolution was certainly not the epitome of national pride and honour. In fact, it reflected the intellectual and moral bankruptcy of our ruling elite, which has neither courage, nor any vision for the future.
Bin Laden’s presence and killing in Pakistan raises many thorny questions. In a world that has little tolerance for terrorist adventurists, the bin Laden affair has exposed the country to unprecedented internal and external risks and pressure. And there can be no arguing that the international community is justified in asking tough questions and demanding from Pakistan’s civilian and military leaders an unequivocal reaffirmation of their commitment in regard to the fight against terrorism. Most vital perhaps is that Pakistan has to recognise that ultimately, combating the monster of terrorism is in Pakistan’s own long-term interests, and perhaps even its very survival as a viable state hinges on this recognition.
If Pakistan is to have any real sovereignty, the civil and military leadership will have to fight to earn it. Not by taking on the world, but by ending the need for unilateral military operations by foreigners. Pakistan has to become proactive on a war footing: it has to identify terrorist hubs, root out terrorist havens, establish its writ on its territory, and create awareness among its people through a sustained and credible campaign of the need to eliminate the menace of terrorism permanently.
Pakistan’s leaders need to talk to the nation, plainly, bluntly is now an imperative. The people overwhelmingly seek economic development, progress, peace and normalcy in their country, not conflict with any of their neighbouring countries, or the United States and the West.
Perhaps now more than ever before, the civil and military leadership has an opportunity to use current international concerns toward Pakistan to its advantage by writing an agenda of change. But this can only be done when all pillars of the country’s leadership, in conjunction with the collective will of the people, take ownership of the struggle for a moderate Pakistan that focuses on improving the lives of its people.

Analysis: Attack and After

By Amir Zia
The News On Sunday
May 29, 2011

The dominant narrative following the terror assault on Mehran airbase in Karachi is that of an audacious denial in accepting the reality of terrorism in the country

Naval Chief Admiral Nauman Bashir denies that there has been a major security breach at the airbase, where a small band of terrorists destroyed two multi-million dollar P-3C Orion surveillance aircrafts and killed 10 security officials in an 18-hour long standoff.
Many of Pakistan’s leading analysts, politicians and opinion-makers remain convinced that “an unholy nexus” of Indian, Israeli and US intelligence agencies masterminded and sponsored this brazen attack to undermine the country’s armed forces and raise questions about the security of its coveted nuclear arsenal. They deny that any Islamic radical group linked to the Taliban, al-Qaeda or its local or foreign allies could have carried out this assault. The closest few of them could get to blame these forces is when they, as a matter of faith, say that some foreign intelligence agency penetrated and used Islamic militants against Pakistan.
As the atmosphere remains thick with weird conspiracy theories, aired primarily through television news channels, Pakistan appears to be living in this state of denial despite losing more than 30,000 civilians and 5,000 security personnel in the decade-long campaign of terrorism and violence unleashed by al-Qaeda and its local allies of all shades and colours.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has already claimed responsibility of the Mehran base attack, but a vast number of conspiracy theorists, in their anti-US and anti-West zeal, conveniently ignore this fact -- as they always do in such cases -- and are trying to find a foreign hand in this incident too.
However, closing one’s eyes does not change the ground reality and the fact that the biggest threat to Pakistan security is from within. With the May 2 killing of terror mastermind Osama bin Laden by the US forces in Abbottabad, the terrorists have one more reason to intensify their war on Pakistan.
The Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) led government struggles to keep its direction and focus toward the elusive enemy on the ideological plane, but besieged by scandals and political opposition, it has failed to galvanise and effectively lead the public opinion against extremists, who have loads of direct and indirect defenders among the legal religious and political parties. It is ironic that many of these politicians see Islamabad’s cooperation with the international community against the global terror network as a problem rather than terrorism and extremism, which finds a perfect breeding ground on our soil.
The sharp ideological chasm, indeed, affects the country’s resolve and capabilities in taking on terrorists, who appear to be going for hard and strategic military targets now. The assault on Mehran airbase appears as a watershed as it is for the first time that operational assets -- P-3C Orion -- and not the men remained the real target. In a way, this attack holds bigger symbolic value than the October 2009 assault on the army headquarters because Mehran base serves in the frontline of the country’s conventional defense system.
Pakistani armed forces, which scored huge successes against militants, in their operations in parts of tribal areas and Swat, for the first time appears at the receiving end. Yes, never before, Pakistan’s mighty security apparatus appeared so ill-prepared, directionless and lethargic in confronting the internal security challenges as it has appeared in the recent months. It is the terrorists, who have the initiative rather than Pakistani armed forces.
Interior Minister Rehman Malik and other officials have been underlining the point that terrorists, who attacked the naval base, were trained and motivated. But this raises the question how prepared and trained are we in combating them?
The terrorists, indeed, have a huge advantage of not just element of surprise but also of selecting their turf for an action. Like any guerrilla group, they hide when hunted and strike when least expected. They also have the advantage of melting away in the civilian population. This is a nightmare situation for any army, especially if it is operating on the home front and remains unable to take those excessive measures, which stand justified during full-blown conflicts in the enemy territory.
Although Pakistani armed forces have been locked in this war on terror for a decade now, their grooming and training has been largely done for conventional warfare and that too mainly for the eastern front. The problem compounds given the fact that within the armed forces there are elements which once used the Islamic militants as proxies. The mindset that these shadowy groups could again prove an asset has not entirely changed.
One big challenge for the military leaders of today is how to readjust and reorient the training of their men that they get prepared to deal with home-grown ideological foes that includes the Taliban and other banned terrorist organisations. The military needs not just special counter terror units, but also to indoctrinate their ranks on the importance of taking on these extremists, who exploit the sacred name of Islam because of their distorted worldview.
But the military alone cannot deliver in this kind of fight in which the civilian government, political parties and the police should remain most crucial players. It is the civilian authorities which have the prime responsibility of spearheading this war on ideological plane and isolating militants. For this, Pakistan needs a comprehensive counter-insurgency policy, addressing both the symptoms and causes of extremism and terrorism.
The Mehran base attack, while calls for the accountability of officials responsible for lax security, also underlines the risk of operating defense installations amidst the densely populated neighbourhoods -- especially in an urban jungle like Karachi. The military leadership should think of moving cantonment areas and defense assets out of the civilian areas on a fast track basis and ensure that housing schemes and commercial areas do not spring up again around them.
There is also a need to closely scrutinise the internal security mechanism within the armed forces and make them foolproof against the penetration of extremist Islamic groups. There is ample evidence of inside help in many high-profile terror attacks in the past. The Mehran airbase assault also need to be reviewed from this point-of-view because the band of terrorists not just managed to sneak inside the base, but also remain undetected until they themselves fired the first shots.
Authorities face an uphill task in confronting the massive terror network, which remains loosely knit and is without a centralised command. Besides known major terror organisations, which themselves are more than two dozen, the terrorists have multiplied in countless of small shadowy cells. This includes not just the hardcore ones, but also who are in the making. Many of them remain undetected until they commit their first and last act of terror -- the suicide bombing.
While security officials appear convinced that incidents of terrorism and extremism are likely to hit a new peak as the al-Qaeda and its local sympathisers are out to avenge the killing of bin Laden, the Mehran airbase attack should be used to galvanise the street and barracks against this monster. This happened during the Swat operation, which remains a resounding success story in this conflict. The civil and military leadership must grab the initiative from extremists. If our leadership seriously wants to stop the country’s slide into anarchy, guard its sovereignty, prevent unilateral Abbottabad like operations as done by the US Marines, it has to act and succeed against the monster of militancy and extremism itself. We have no other choice.

Now bin Laden’s ghost to haunt Pakistan economy

By Amir Zia
May 08, 2011
The News

An angry, bitter Pakistan appears more on the path of confrontation than keeping pace with the international community on the issue of terrorism. This, in itself, is a major contradiction as Pakistan has suffered the most -- both financially and in terms of human lives — at the hands of al Qaeda, the Taliban and their local allies

Pakistan is now considered amongst some of the most dangerous countries in the world, placed in the wretched company of conflict-ridden Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine, Congo, Somalia, Sudan and Haiti. Whatever grand, self-deluding image we might have of ourselves as defenders, torch-bearers and promoters of Islam and the world's lone Muslim nuclear power, others see us as an abnormal society and a weak state that appears all set to implode. This negative perception strengthens itself due to the state’s inability and incapacity to establish writ on its territory and resolve the simmering internal contradictions that have transformed Pakistan into the hotbed and breeding ground of violence and terrorism.

No wonder, many of the mid-level and small foreign investors and businessmen have long stopped visiting the country. Instead, Pakistani businesspeople and exporters have to go all the way to the UAE, Malaysia and other peaceful and safe places just to hold meetings with them. The giant multinationals and foreign companies also remain reluctant to send their top officials to this land of the pure because of security concerns. They mostly operate businesses from abroad or through their local representatives.

Many leading foreign apparel brands have asked their Pakistani partners to shift their production units abroad, to ensure that their supply-line remain intact in times of crisis. As a result, some top Pakistani textile manufacturers have already and some are in the process of establishing their units abroad, including countries like Bangladesh.

Under these circumstances, it should be no surprise to see the net flow of foreign investments plunging to a meager 2.08 billion dollars in financial year 2009/10 (July-June) from the highs of 8.42 in 2006/07, according to the State Bank of Pakistan figures. In the first nine months of the current fiscal, the total foreign investment stands at around 1.31 billion dollars compared with 1.32 billion dollars during the same period a year ago.

The domestic investment climate also remains bleak with many local investors and businesspeople putting plans on hold due to the country's continuing political uncertainty and the dark specter of terrorism and violence, which has been affecting every section of our society.

The signs of times, indeed, are ominous and have got only worse with the killing of the world's most wanted terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden in the garrison town of Abbottabad on May 2. Media reports that bin Laden had been living in Abbottabad for more than five years — despite all the denials by top civilian and military leaders all these years — has come as another huge blow to Pakistan’s already battered world image.

Although the focus of popular debate in Pakistan remains violation of its sovereignty by the American assault on bin Laden’s den rather than about his presence in the country, the international community is rightly asking how the al Qaeda chief managed to find a safe-haven here. Was it the sheer incompetence of our security apparatus or was there connivance at some level? Whatever the answer to this tricky question, Pakistan remains in the dock and will be under close international scrutiny for all of its sins of commission and omission in the years to come.

The distrust of Pakistan’s establishment and its institutions will grow, which is bad news for the country’s struggling economy dependent on foreign aid, trade and support. Although the world’s leading rating agency -- Moody’s Investors -- has said that Pakistan does not face an immediate risk of a withdrawal of foreign aid in the aftermath of bin Laden’s killing, analysts say that the country will remain under intense pressure in the mid- to long-run.

Yes, bin Laden, has even in his death, given a major jolt to the Pakistani economy, already caught in the cycle of low growth and double-digit inflation for the last three years. And Pakistan is not going to get rid of bin Laden’s ghost easily.

Nervous Pakistani representatives of multi-national and foreign companies have been frantically revising the risk and threat perception to their operations. “Forget now about expansion and fresh investment in Pakistan. There is a lot of talk of the curtailment or downsizing of our operations,” said an official of a western company requesting anonymity.

Understandably, even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) officials, who were supposed to hold the crucial pre-budget meetings in Islamabad from May 8, shifted this venue to Dubai. Let alone foreigners, even President Asif Ali Zardari now finds it unsafe to travel within the country. Therefore, the Karachi Stock Exchange’s top companies’ award ceremony is being held outside Karachi for the first time ever on May 23 in the President House Islamabad so that President Zardari can grace the event as the chief guest.

As the anti-US and anti-west rhetoric intensifies among the rightwing political parties, on television screens and in the vernacular media, backed by some tough talk by the armed forces of downing US drones if ordered and defending the country’s sovereignty, an angry, bitter Pakistan appears more on the path of confrontation than keeping pace with the international community on the issue of terrorism. This in itself, is a major contradiction, as Pakistan has suffered the most -- both financially and in terms of human lives — at the hands of al Qaeda, the Taliban and their local allies.

Pakistan’s civil and military leadership will have to perform a high-wire act to minimize the damage in the aftermath of bin Laden’s killing on our soil. Until Pakistan manages to beat the monster of extremism and terrorism in all its shades and manifestations, the dream of a prosperous and economically stable Pakistan will remain elusive. It is high time for the country’s ruling elite to work sincerely and honestly, to clear the mist of doubt and distrust, which the world has towards Pakistan on the issue of terrorism.

The right actions, not words, are needed to restore Pakistan’s image and pull it out of its present morass. This will serve as a first step towards the goal of economic revival and prosperity.

After Bin Laden

By Amir Zia
The News
Tuesday, May 03, 2011

In the country’s own enlightened self-interest, there is need to ensure that the state’s writ is established across the country and all terror havens are abolished. Our failure to do so will prompt others to go for terrorists as happened in the case of Bin Laden.

The killing of Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden is indeed a triumph in the global war against terrorism, but for Pakistan its implications should be more a cause for concern than relief. The mere fact that Bin Laden was holed inside a luxury compound in Abbottabad not very far from the Pakistan Military Academy should be seen as a massive security lapse.

For how long had Bin Laden and his aides been using this plush compound, surrounded by 18-feet high walls and barbed wire, as a hiding place? Why did such a big compound, which was without a telephone or internet connection, not raise suspicion within the ranks of our intelligence agencies? Who were the Pakistani collaborators of Bin Laden and his gang and how did they manage to secure this property? Why was it the US and not the Pakistani security forces which conducted the raid? And, most importantly, why did the world’s most dreaded terrorist gravitate to Pakistan and manage to find a foothold here?

Although details about Bin Laden’s last hideout, his final moments, his life in Abbottabad and the raid remain sketchy so far, in the era of Wikileaks and an aggressive media, these facts and the gloss over them are likely to hit us sooner than later.

US president Barrack Obama has certainly talked about Pakistani cooperation in efforts to fight terrorism while announcing the death of America’s number one enemy, but Al-Qaeda leader’s killing on our soil has given Islamabad’s opponents and critics a brush to paint Pakistan black.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has already said that the war against terrorism should not be fought in Afghanistan but in Pakistan. New Delhi has expressed concern over the presence in Pakistan of safe havens for terrorists. There are strong lobbies in the West, especially the United States, which have been carrying out a sustained propaganda campaign against the Pakistani armed forces, and the Inter-Services Intelligence, accusing them of doublespeak and double games.

It is indeed ironic that Pakistan, which suffered and sacrificed the most because of terrorism, including the deaths of more 30,000 civilians and 5,000 security officials in recent years, is seen as providing sanctuaries to terrorists.

Bin Laden’s killing will intensify pressure on the country both on the international and domestic fronts. On the international front, there will be now increased demands on the civil and military leadership to pursue and strike the local and the Taliban terror network, especially in the country’s northern rugged mountainous region, more decisively. The focus of the war on terror will be on Pakistan than Afghanistan, which is being portrayed by the Afghan leadership as a victim of militants coming from across the porous frontier.

This will lead to tremendous covert and overt pressure of Washington and its allies on Pakistan, which will be asked to do more against militants.

There also remains a possibility of an escalation in US drone attacks and operations against Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants following Bin Laden’s death, which is all set to create problems for the civil and military leadership and compound their image problem.

On the domestic front, there is a huge possibility that Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and their shadowy Pakistani sympathisers will try to hit back – just to prove that they still matter and remain a force to reckon with, even without Bin Laden.

Members of the local terror network, which remains intertwined with Al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban militants, have the potential to carry out assaults with more vengeance. To create mayhem and terror, they are likely to go for soft targets more aggressively now, along with selective attacks on the security forces and government officials whom they see as collaborators of the West. In an era of ideological confusion in which sacred Islamic teachings have been misinterpreted and the concept of jihad, or holy war, distorted by religious fanatics and extremists, there isn’t a dearth of willing recruits.

Legal religious parties, including the Jamaat-e-Islami and the major factions of the Jamiatul Ulema-e-Islam, which have a history of keeping mum over the spate of terror attacks within the country, need to show maturity and come out openly to condemn and disown terrorism. This is not the time to ignite emotions but to help the security agencies in getting rid of extremism and terrorism in the country.

The killing of Bin Laden in Pakistan is a big blow to those religious parties and their likeminded politicians who opposed Pakistan’s cooperation with the international community in its bid to defeat terrorism. Living in a state of self-denial is not going to help Pakistan’s cause. The world is justified in its demand that Pakistani soil should not be used for terrorism against any country or to provide shelter to the extremists. This has also remained the stated policy of successive Pakistani governments. In the country’s own enlightened self-interest, there is need to ensure that the state’s writ is established across the country and all terror havens are abolished. Our failure to do so will prompt others to go for terrorists as happened in the case of Bin Laden. This is necessary if Pakistan wants to keep pace with the international community in the 21st century.

Bin Laden’s killing on Pakistani soil is indeed a test case for both our civilian and military leadership as to how they handle the pressure and turn this incident into an opportunity to get rid of the twin monsters of terrorism and extremism that have bled Pakistan more than the United States. It is time not just for a more decisive, resolute and determined action against these monster groups on our own but to increase our collaboration with the international community to defeat these groups. It is time to seize the moment.