Saffron Terrorism

By Amir Zia

Monthly Hilal

July 2019

The dominance of hardline Hindu nationalism in Indian politics is not just acting as a destabilizing factor within India, but threatens peace in South Asia and beyond.

When on June 30, the Indian cricket team appeared at Edgbaston to face England in the Cricket World Cup 2019 tie, it donned a new “away kit” – a bold splash of orange (saffron) on the shoulders and back of the players’ shirts. The change of colour in the kit – from traditional blue to the splattering of saffron, one of the three colours in the Indian national flag, is perhaps a sign of times, coinciding with the second consecutive victory of Hindu extremist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in India’s April-May polls. 

In Hinduism, saffron is the most important colour. No wonder the BJP and its allied groups are all out to paint “Bharat” orange. Yes, it is for the first time in more than thousand years of history that the Hindu extremists are firmly in power and in a position to assert themselves and promote their hate-ideology as they could have never done in the past.  
So if Indian politics has turned saffron, it makes sense for cricket to follow suit – the money-minting game for which there is more passion in India than providing toilets to the teeming masses.
Therefore, for promoters of Hindutva, cricket is just another means to showcase Hindu-ness and muscle-power of their country rather than sport and a gentleman’s game. Falling in line, wicketkeeper Mahendra Singh Dhoni felt the need to display a military logo on his gloves at the World Cup. Mercifully, the International Cricket Council barred him from doing this, though many feared that the big money clout of Indians may force it to bend rules. 
And prior to the gloves’ controversy, Indian cricketers shocked the world of sports by wearing army’s camouflage caps during the 3rd One-Day International match against Australia at Jharkhand. 
However, saffron coloured kit, gloves with the military logo or the camouflage caps in cricket hold only a small symbolic value in the big picture of India. The real cause of concern for the world should be Hindutva’s ominous and scary agenda being unfolded with a rapid speed on the domestic and external fronts following Modi’s re-election.
The BJP’s second innings in power has started off with a sharp spike in anti-minority mob violence and rhetoric, particularly against Muslims – raising the mega question about what does the dominance of Hindutva mean for the so-called world’s largest democracy? It is also important to analyze how the Hindutva agenda would impact the region, particularly India’s immediate neighbours? And where this unbridled rise of politics of extremism and hate could lead to?  

Targeting Minorities
In India, the frequency and ferocity of attacks by the Hindu extremist vigilante mobs targeting followers of the minority faiths continue to increase. 
According to the New York-based Human Rights Watch report – released in February 2019 – radical cow protection groups have killed at least 44 people and injured around 280 in more than 100 attacks carried out between May 2015 and December 2018. Out of these 44 slain victims, 36 were Muslims.  
Following Modi’s re-election, vigilantism has shown an upward trend. And media – by design or default – reports only tip of the iceberg of all the discrimination, harassment, exploitation and violence meted out to the members belonging to the religious minorities and people belonging to the so-called lower castes. 
For example, in Jharkhand a 24-year-old Muslim, Tabrez Ansari, was tortured to death by a Hindu mob. The video clip of this horrific incident appeared on June 22, showing Ansari begging for mercy as he was being tortured and forced to chant “Jai Shri Ram” and “Jai Hanuman” by the mob.    
Two days after the Jharkhand incident, a 26-year-old Muslim cleric, Hafeez Mohammed, was pushed out of a train in West Bengal by a mob chanting “Jai Shri Ram.” Luckily, Hafeez escaped death, but sustained some minor injuries.
Countless such incidents can be quoted underlining the fact that Hindu extremists are out to further squeeze space for people belonging to the other faiths in their bid to transform India in line with the Hindutva ideology. 
India’s national identity is being defined only as Hindu identity by the BJP and its allies like Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and Hindu Mahasabha. 
For a country, where one-fifth of the population comprises non-Hindus, this push towards establishing a Hindu state is seen widening its fissures.

Discrimination
The BJP government has either taken or plans a series of highly discriminatory and controversial actions against the minorities by changing the constitution and the law. 
The most inflammatory plan is to abolish the special status of the disputed region of Kashmir – the only Muslim majority state of Hindu India – and scrap all its constitutional guarantees.
If this plan materializes it would diminish all possibilities for a peaceful solution to this protracted conflict in which Kashmiris have been forced to turn to armed and unarmed resistance in the wake of growing atrocities and human rights violations by the Indian forces. 
The BJP is also changing India’s refugee and citizenship policies to make them more discriminatory and anti-minorities. Under this plan non-Muslim refugees will get Indian citizenship more easily than Muslims.
Hindu hardliners are also pursuing their agenda to falsify and distort history by rewriting textbooks, changing names of places and pressuring Muslim institutions to amend their charters. 
This sort of discrimination is not just isolating the religious minorities, especially the Muslims, but is likely to force retaliation. 
Abdul Basit, Pakistan’s former high commissioner to India, said that Hindutva’s extremist ideology is intrinsically dangerous as it is heavily inspired by Nazism. 
“Savarkar, the founder of Hindutva, was critical of Jews for retaining their separate identity in Germany and compared them to Indian Muslims. It is, therefore, hardly surprising what is happening to Muslims in India under the BJP and Modi.”
According to Air Vice Marshal Shahzad Chaudhry (R) India's declaratory policy of Hindutva has sharpened the divide in this multi-cultural state. “It has placed communities on warpath inside India, while it has spawned similar polarity of sentiment in the neighbourhood.”

Threat to Regional Peace
Indeed, the dominance of hardline Hindu nationalism in Indian politics is not just acting as a destabilizing factor within India, but threatens peace in South Asia and beyond.
India’s tense relations with Pakistan over Kashmir is an old story. But under the BJP’s adventurous policies, they have aggravated and fears of a full-blown conflict increased as witnessed in February this year when the armed forces of the two nuclear-armed states briefly locked horns following the violation of Pakistan’s airspace by Indian fighter jets. The retaliatory action by Pakistan Air Force had downed two Indian aircraft.    
Any miscalculation amidst this kind of Indian brinkmanship and war-hysteria fanned by its leadership could prove catastrophic for the entire region.
“The BJP is an extension of the RSS, which sees Kashmir dispute not as a political but religious one,” says Dr. Syed Rifaat Hussain, who specializes in international relations with a focus on South Asia, arms control and proliferation.
With all their temples and some holy places, they even consider Kashmir as a sacred Hindu land and therefore, are not ready to open talks on the disputed Himalayan region. “Congress also had the same problem, but it was not averse for talks,” he said.  
According to Mr. Basit, now even engaging with Pakistan by India is considered a concession.  “Indian leadership wants their country to become an economic hub by isolating Pakistan… they want to keep Pakistan under pressure. Even if they talk, they will not talk on Kashmir… in the current situation, at the most conflict between the two countries can be managed, but not resolved.”  
While Kashmir remains an old problem, India is using Afghanistan to stoke ethnic tensions, terrorism and violence in Pakistan. The arrest of Commander Kulbhushan Jadhav – a serving Indian naval officer – by Pakistan in 2016 is a living proof of how India is responsible for terrorism in Pakistan.  
Other disputes between Pakistan and India including on Sir Creek and Siachen Glacier also remain unresolved due to New Delhi’s belligerence and obstinate attitude.
Mr. Basit said that one can see how Hindutva agenda is working to damage bilateral relations between Pakistan and India, as well as impeding regional cooperation. “India's bullying tactics vis-á-vis SAARC is [a] clear manifestation of the latter.”

A Regional Bully  
Pakistan is not the only South Asian country which has tensions with India. Almost all the other South Asian neighbours have maritime, border or water disputes with India, which is trying to establish its hegemony in the region in all spheres – from trade to military power.
For example, Bangladesh’s relations under Prime Minister Hasina Wajid’s rule have improved in recent years, but Dhaka has not been able to convince its big neighbour to ensure its water share during drier season and manage its flow during monsoon to avoid floods. 
The construction and operation of Farakka Barrage by India over Hoogly River is a key bone of contention along with the distribution and management of the waters of River Ganges. 
India and Bangladesh also have problems on their porous frontiers as the Indian Army shoots to kill Bangladeshi villagers, branding them illegal immigrants or terrorists. 
Land-locked Nepal often remains the target of Indian belligerence. In 1962, India forcibly occupied Kalapani, which is still claimed by Nepal. Similarly, disputes over Susta and Lipulekh are also unresolved. Indian interference in the affairs of its small neighbour can be gauged from the fact that in 2016, it tried to topple down the Nepalese government.  
In 2015, India created a humanitarian crisis in Nepal by blocking its supplies as New Delhi supported the Madheshis population against the Nepalese government. 
Pakistan’s former envoy to India, Mr. Basit also said that the world had seen how India under Modi tried to bully Nepal by imposing an economic blockade for months. 
“One must commend the people of Nepal for refusing to compromise their sovereignty and national dignity,” he said, adding that despite being a Hindu majority country, Nepal, too, remains apprehensive of the regressive worldview of Hindutva.
India’s controversial intervention in Sri Lanka’s civil war is also a case in point. Initially, the Indian Army supported Tamil Tigers despite being peacekeepers and then changed track. 
Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination in 1991 by Tamil Tigers was in response to this change of position. 
In recent years, Sri Lanka has moved closer to China, yet maintaining good relations with India. 
AVM Chaudhry said that even the recent communal troubles in Sri Lanka remain an extension and a manifestation of the trend in its closest neighbourhood India. “It is time for the world to take notice and pine for greater inclusiveness as a sine qua non for social and political stability in the region.”
Similarly, despite billions of dollars of trade, India’s relations with China remain distrustful and complicated. While one of the main bone of contentions is India’s dispute with China over Aksai Chin and Ladakh regions, New Delhi’s growing strategic relations with the United States are fundamentally aimed at containing Beijing. 
India wants to ensure that the Indian Ocean becomes its domain, but it is not in a position to counter China and its influence. Therefore, it has partnered with Australia, Japan and the U.S. to achieve this end. In an attempt to dominate the sea lanes, India and its allies are trying to establish their influence and control over islands stretching from Maldives to Diego Garcia and beyond by placing fighter aircraft, sea and air surveillance, naval ships and listening posts. India will gain the most if this happens.  
If this happens, not only maritime interests of China and Pakistan will be threatened but Gulf States, Indonesia and Malaysia and even Russia will be hurt. 
Pakistan and China have to develop a strategy to counter this move in which they have to ensure that Maldives maintains its autonomy and independence and doesn’t fall prey to India’s expansionist designs. New Delhi is trying to influence. Maldives and its politics through diplomacy as well as using its intelligence. It is trying to change the Islamic character of Maldives and create a negative image about Pakistan.  

In a nutshell, ‘Saffron’ India with its grand dream of emerging on the world stage as a major power, maintains from uneasy to outright hostile relations with all its neighbours. 
The dominance of aggressive Hindutva agenda, which is not a temporary phase in India, is widening cracks and fissures within the Indian polity as well as complicating and aggravating relations with neighbouring countries, threatening regional peace and stability. 

ENDS

The Crisis Of Leadership

By Amir Zia 
Feb 10, 2014
The News

Among all the challenges, the rapid erosion in the writ of the state against the backdrop of the growing and expanding influence of violent non-state actors should be the biggest cause of concern for both civilian and military leaders. The continued weakening of the writ of the state has all the potential to throw Pakistan into the deadly vortex of strife and civil war. 


Last year, many Pakistanis were celebrating the country’s first democratic transition from one elected government to another with a lot of hope and optimism. Today, many are wondering whether our elected representatives have the capacity and ability to grasp and deal with the grave challenges that threaten the very existence of the state and the society.
The signs of time are depressingly telling, while the response to the life and death issues faced by the nation remains weak and meek. The elected representatives seem to lack the vision, commitment, courage and integrity needed to confront any of the challenges faced by the country – from the issue of terrorism to that of a crumbling economy and the crisis of governance.
Among all the challenges, the rapid erosion in the writ of the state against the backdrop of the growing and expanding influence of violent non-state actors in recent months should be the biggest cause of concern for both civilian and military leaders. The continued weakening of the writ of the state has all the potential to throw Pakistan into the deadly vortex of strife and civil war.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government has embarked on a dangerous course by accepting the Al-Qaeda linked local Taliban as a ‘legitimate’ stakeholder in the country and starting negotiations with their nominated committee. This move is all set to further weaken the state and its writ as it has allowed the Taliban and their sympathisers to dictate the agenda of political discourse and set the national narrative that has all the deadly ingredients to further polarise and divide the people on religious grounds. To their credit, the Taliban have always made it explicitly clear that they want to change the structure of the Pakistani state and scrap its constitution in line with their interpretation of Islam.
Even the outcome of the first round of the so-called ‘peace talks’ between the government- and the Taliban-nominated committees makes it evident what one should expect from this controversial process and how these non-state actors want to use it to their advantage.
The core issue of these talks, according to one of the Taliban committee members, Maulana Abdul Aziz of the Lal Masjid, should be the ‘implementation of Shariah’ rather than terrorism. The Taliban spokesman Shahidullah Shahid has backed Maulana Aziz’s stand by saying that talks would only be held under the Quran and Sunnah.
With just one master-stroke, the Taliban successfully managed to (or should we say allowed to) shift the focus of talks and sidetrack the real issue of religiously motivated violence and terrorism. The Taliban note of dissent came when the echo of the official statement issued after the first round of talks had not even died down.
The government-nominated team hardly managed to bring the issue of all the suicide bombings and killings of innocent civilians and the security personnel into the focus. It seems that the Pakistani state and its institutions are being tried and held accountable rather than the terrorists who are responsible for more than 50,000 deaths since early 2002. 
Ironically, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and their respective allies have helped the Taliban achieve this upper hand both in negotiations and conflict. These mainstream political forces begged, pleaded and argued in favour of talks for months – deliberately ignoring the complexity and gravity of the challenge of extremism and terrorism and how it threatens the entire fabric of the society. 
The other major political parties, including the Pakistan People’s Party, appear divided and confused, failing to create any forceful alternate voice. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari does tweet aggressively against the Taliban, but his parliamentary party leader and other stalwarts definitely are on a different plane. 
In a nutshell, in the name of national consensus and so-called peace, the elected civilian leaders are all set to surrender the country to violent non-state actors. This strategy (if it can be called one) gives a loud and clear message that our weak-kneed government will yield to any terrorist group that raises weapons against the state and has the determination to kill and get killed for its mission.
Welcome to the Pakistan of 2014 where civilian leaders are ready to forget and forgive all the heinous crimes and mass murders carried out by non-state actors like the Taliban. 
And now compare this to the former British premier Margaret Thatcher’s iron resolve who once said; “To me consensus seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values, and policies in search of something in which no one believes…”
What great cause could be served, fought and won under the banner of so-called national consensus as advocated and interpreted by most of our civilian leaders? This only shows that none of them is ready to take the responsibility or has the guts to fight for his beliefs.
Our civilian leaders seem ignorant of the fact that a bad peace is even worse than a war. There are times in history when the only option available is to fight a war that has been imposed on a nation. And wars cannot be won without fighting. The policy of appeasing non-state actors has never worked in any country – from neighbouring India to Sri Lanka. 
The Indians dealt with all insurgencies – from Kashmir to East Punjab and Assam to Manipur – with an iron hand. Our Sri Lankan friends did the same while crushing the Tamil fighters, as did Saudi Arabia in the bloody siege of Mecca in 1979. The so-called fervour of the Islamic militants holed in the Masjid al-Haram did not deter the Saudis from taking decisive action against them.
There are many other such instances in modern history where courageous and determined leadership successfully managed to crush those who raised arms against the state.
But not so in Pakistan under the present set of civilian rulers. If the former PPP government dillydallied in taking ownership of the war against terrorists and left it only to the khakis to deal with the challenge, the Sharif government seems all set to handover Pakistan to the militants on a silver platter.
Perhaps, this is the short-cut Sharif has selected in an attempt to impose his style of Shariah, which once he wanted to do in 1999 and become the ameerul momineen. At that time his aspirations were cut short by the bloodless military coup of October 1999. Sharif seems to have picked up the thread from where he left it last, perhaps believing his road is now open and clear.
But aren’t our civilian lords and masters playing with fire. Aren’t they putting the country at stake by appeasing the militants and trying to cut unholy deals with them?
In politics, often a right decision becomes wrong if taken after too much delay. And here, it is the ‘tragedy of delay’ that is costing Pakistan dearly. Pakistan’s armed forces have all the capacity, courage and resolve to overcome this existentialist internal threat. The only thing the country needs is a courageous and determined leadership. Is there any elected civilian leader who can take up the gauntlet? The landscape appears too barren.

The Stalling Game

By Amir Zia
May 2011
Newsline

Faced with increasing pressure from the IMF and the World Bank, will this government swallow the bitter pill of reforms or resort to stalling tactics yet again?

When it comes to Pakistan’s relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), one thing is now clear – there is no money for the country under any new or old programme until the government implements its promised reforms in which expanding the tax base and stopping wasteful expenditures remain the top items on the agenda.
This was perhaps the crux of the matter that emerged from Finance Minister Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh and his team’s recent trip to Washington where they met with top IMF and the World Bank officials in an attempt to salvage the government’s reputation, tarnished by its inability to keep its promises to the global lending agencies. The toughening of IMF’s stance toward Pakistan was clear even in its programme note issued on April 7, a few days prior to Dr Shaikh and his entourage’s departure for Washington for a series of much-hyped spring meetings.
The IMF, in an unprecedented strongly-worded language, said that the structural reforms “have been retarded or reversed in 2010 and 2011.”
IMF, which approved a standby arrangement for Pakistan in November 2008 and augmented it in August 2009, imposed a technical suspension of its $11.3 billion programme in May 2010 after the disbursement of $7.6 billion due to the government’s inability to implement the reform agenda. Islamabad did manage to get a nine-month extension in the programme as a face-saving measure. However, its efforts to get the IMF programme back on the track have so far proved futile because the global lending agency is not prepared to settle on anything less than practical steps.
IMF’s April 7 programme note says that under its standby arrangement, Pakistan’s economy initially made progress toward stabilisation. “Macroeconomic imbalances shrank and inflation fell below 10% in mid-2009. More recently, however, the budget deficit has increased, reaching 6.3% of the GDP in 2009/10 (July-June), and inflation has been on the rise, recording 13% in March 2011.”
The note further states that since June 2009, the authorities exceeded the budget deficit targets under the programme, among others, due to large additional subsidies for the electricity sector. “The overrun on the fiscal deficit target at end-June 2010 reached 1.7% of GDP.”
According to Finance Ministry sources there appears to be an increasing frustration among top IMF officials towards the government’s lack of willingness and commitment to the reform process.
The value-added tax (VAT) had effectively been torpedoed by political parties and various interest groups. The reformed general sales tax (RGST), which was supposed to be enforced at the start of the current fiscal year, has been delayed by one year.
The untargeted subsidies on energy remain a constant drain on the national exchequer. The subsidy on electricity alone stands at more than 200 billion rupees during the current fiscal, while the haemorrhage from the public sector companies stands around 300 billion rupees. The fuel subsidy during a three-month period of November 1 to end-February also stands at around 15 billion rupees.
This has resulted in the widening of the budget deficit, slashing of annual development programmes, and an increased bank borrowing, which not only had an inflationary impact, but also crowded out the private sector from the credit chain.
The government’s measures to mobilise more than 50 billion rupees in March through three ordinances came as too little and too late. Even on this front, the government scrapped some vital measures under the pressure of vested groups.
Finance Minister Shaikh and his team have been unable to get rid of their lethargic and laid-back attitude, which has become a hallmark of their management style. They not only failed to convince their political bosses of the necessity of reforms, but have made little effort to build a consensus and advocate their case by proactively engaging various trade and business organisations, the media, and the opposition parties.
Sources say that the IMF officials in their Washington meetings have made it clear to Shaikh and his delegation members that the resumption of the stalled programme remains linked to the implementation of reforms – for which the coming budget would provide a litmus test. An IMF team will be here in Pakistan in May to engage Pakistani officials in the budget preparations. It will revisit Pakistan in July to review whether the government has been able to get the promised budgetary measures passed through the parliament – which has so far proved to be the main stumbling block in the reform process.
Tax on agricultural income, enforcement of RGST and stopping wasteful expenditure remain top items on the agenda and the government will have to move on them and convince its allies and the opposition that they remain vital for the economy.
“Getting a new IMF programme was not on the table for discussion,” says a source close to Finance Minister. “We aim to get the stalled programme resumed because it is the matter of the country’s credibility.”
Government officials say that remaining on track with the IMF is extremely important for Pakistan because engagement with, and support from, the global lending agency sends a positive signal to the foreign investors and the international community.
However, Pakistan’s finance team has not been able to win the confidence of IMF officials, who view their promises with increasing scepticism. Some officials in the Pakistan team are known for their anti-IMF stance because of their political beliefs and their participation in the discussions did not prove to be of much help in ironing out the differences with the fund, say government sources.
While IMF-bashing remains the best pastime of most leading Pakistani politicians and political parties, the fund should not be blamed for the country’s economic woes, which stem from the government’s myopic policies and its inability to take the right decision at the right time. This has hit the common man the hardest.
The government should focus on measures to boost growth, increase revenues including taking measures to tax the rich and the affluent and stop wasteful expenditures. That’s what the world, including the IMF, is asking Pakistan to do – and it makes sense.
Shockingly, in a country of more than 170 million people, less than 3.0 million are registered tax payers and out of them only 2.7 million are active tax payers. The country’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains one of the lowest in the world at a slim 10%, only ahead of countries like Afghanistan and lagging behind even regional countries including Sri Lanka and India, which stand at a respectable 15% and 18% respectively.
As Pakistan remains in the vicious cycle of low growth, high-inflation and widening budget deficit for the last three years, the government appears clueless on how to put the country back on the high growth trajectory for which low and stable inflation and low interest rates remain a must.
But for a government, which wasted the first three years of its term and hesitated to take tough decisions on the economic front, would it be prudent to expect that it would be able to bite the bullet and go for the bitter pill of reforms at the fag-end of its term when political pundits are already setting eyes on the next elections.
Few believe that the government will be able to go for any meaningful reforms. But under pressure from the global lending agencies and the world powers, it can’t just sit and wait either. The era of free money and free lunches is now over. How the government balances the demands of popular politics with the demands of the economy remains a moot point. The budget for 2011-2012 will reveal how the government sets its priorities and manages the political dissent of its allies and the opposition. The government’s record in this regard is not exactly encouraging, but it would make sense even for the opposition parties to help push the reforms through now when the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) is in power so that they can reap the benefit of the tough decisions two to three years down the road. Will sanity prevail and will the opposition stop opposing the reforms for their own narrow vested interests?

Talking Tax Reforms: Fault Lies With Parliament

By Amir Zia
Sunday, April 24, 2011
The News

The government needs to boost growth, increase revenues and stop wasteful expenditure if it wants to end the low growth and high inflation cycle in which the country has been caught for the last three years.

Finance Minister Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh hit the bull’s eye when he held parliament responsible for blocking the much-needed tax reforms, while meeting with officials of the global lending agencies in Washington. Ironically, he had to retract those remarks, which created an uproar in parliament and made many honourable lawmakers fume with rage. But even if the Pakistani media misreported the finance minister’s statement by design or default, it reflected a fact about the country’s depressing tax culture, which one cannot hide or deny.

Yes, tax collection has long been a thorny issue in Pakistan, where only the salaried class and the organised corporate and industrial sectors form the backbone of direct taxpayers. The liquidity-flushed agriculture sector, the money minting retail outlets, the middleman, the vast services sector and the informal economy remain, by and large, out of the tax net. The real estate sector infamously thrives by under-reporting transactions and a majority of private businesses finds ways to evade taxes and duties by under-invoicing in this Islamic republic.

No wonder, the tax-to-GDP ratio in Pakistan hovers at a slim 10 percent against more than 15 percent in Sri Lanka and 18 percent in India. Pakistan’s small tax base is reflected by the fact that there are less than three million registered taxpayers in a country, having an estimated population of more than 170 million. The active taxpayers, out of these three million, are not more than 2.7 million.

Who is responsible for this state of affairs?

Of course, the powerful vested interests, who resist and oppose every reform. Parliament and the political parties — which ideally should be vehicles of change, improvement and the rule of the law — remain their main strongholds. The ruling elite effectively blocks any moves aimed at creating a fair and equitable tax system.

Agricultural tax remains a taboo though apparently provincial governments are empowered to collect it. The reason is understandable - our parliament and provincial assemblies are dominated by tribal chiefs and landlords, who jealously guard their self-interest. The government’s effort to impose tax on retailers, represented by political parties with an urban base, has been confronted by shutter power. Value-added tax was shot down. The proposal for reformed general sales tax (RGST) is being bitterly opposed. Do we have any fresh ideas to raise revenues other than to milk the ones who already pay taxes?

The politics of expediency — mastered by our mainstream parties — are not letting the country and its people achieve their potential. It is the narrow vested interests and not the national interest, which dictates policies.

A leading Pakistani economist, who once used to work for an international lending agency, summed up the guiding principle of the country’s ruling elite and successive elected governments aptly in these words; “they steal for themselves and beg to run the government”.

But the problem in today’s world is that money is hard to get without conditions. The global lending agencies, foreign donors and the world powers refuse to provide a free lunch. They want Pakistani rulers and the rich to share the burden by paying taxes and removing untargeted subsidies. They want the government to put its house in order by stopping the financial hemorrhage caused by the public sector companies, which wipe out a staggering 300 billion rupees annually in subsidies aimed just to keep them afloat. Subsidies on fuel and electricity also remain a massive drain on the country’s meager economic resources.

The problem for Finance Minister Shaikh and his team stems from the fact that their political bosses are not prepared to take those measures, which are the critical need of today. The minority government of the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) is being kept on a tight leash by its allies and the opposition. They all have one thing in common — hostility to reform, change and an unwillingness to sacrifice their interests.

The half-measures, which came in the form of ordinances in March to mobilise more than 50 billion additional resources in the wake of last year’s devastating floods came as too little and too late. They provide short-term relief and a recipe to marginally slash the yawning budget deficit. This trick will not rescue the economy from its present morass.

The message, which came loud and clear during the spring meetings of Finance Minister Shaikh and his team with officials of the IMF, is that they have to go for the promised reforms if Pakistan wants support of the global lending agencies and the world powers.

A new programme from the IMF will remain out of the question and the resumption of the existing stalled standby arrangement linked to practical steps, which include the key condition of enforcement of RGST to broaden the tax base and the removal of untargeted subsidies.

The government needs to boost growth, increase revenues and stop wasteful expenditure if it wants to end the low growth and high inflation cycle in which the country has been caught for the last three years. The problems of a low tax base, the power sector’s massive losses and controversy about passing on any increase in international fuel prices to the consumers are certainly not new ones. Who is stopping the ruling elite from resolving them? Of course, the IMF, the World Bank, the United States, the West, India or Israel cannot be blamed for the government’s inaction and the ruling elite’s failure.

The fault is with those state institutions, including parliament, which are unable to rise up to the challenge and lead the country from the front.

One should perhaps sympathise with Hafeez Shaikh and his team, who may know the panacea for the present ills, but are incapable of taking the right step at the right time because they carry no weight within the ruling party and share a bed with those allies and opponents who serve narrow vested interests. It appears a fail-fail situation for everyone!