Editorial: An uncertain new year

Bol News
January 1, 2023

Although no political player or institution seems to take ownership of the rumours concerning the caretaker set-up, with a slightly long term mandate — which ironically has no constitutional provision –, those pushing the case make some strong arguments against the existing set-up.

Pakistan enters a new year amidst speculations about a caretaker government, consisting of technocrats, to be installed. While all the mainstream political parties, including the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), have rejected the idea altogether, there are many leading experts and civil society members who think that under the present circumstances, when Pakistan remains stuck in continuing and aggravating political and economic crises, this remains the only way forward for the country. Although no political player or institution seems to take ownership of the rumours concerning the caretaker set-up, with a slightly long term mandate — which ironically has no constitutional provision –, those pushing the case make some strong arguments against the existing set-up.

Firstly, a government eying the next general elections – whether held early or on time, by October or November, 2023 – will not go for the painful economic and institutional reforms required by Pakistan right now, at this critical juncture. Already, the half-measures taken by the Shehbaz Sharif-led government to get the IMF’s stalled programme back on track under the stewardship of former finance minister Miftah Ismail resulted in a lot of criticism, not just from the general public and the opposition, but also from within the ruling coalition. After Miftah’s departure from the finance ministry, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) brought its so-called ace-economic wizard, Ishaq Dar, to run the economy. But Dar’s antics not just stalled the IMF programme again, but his financial juggling landed Pakistan into a greater economic mess, from where there seems to be no easy way out.

Therefore, to expect the Pakistan Democratic Movement’s (PDM) government to go for any meaningful reforms in the remaining few months in power – at the most eight – would be false expectations. The only way this government could be forced to carry out the reforms will be if it gets a longer mandate, which is not possible without delaying the general elections for a year or two – a desire of some of the PDM’s bigwigs. But even for this, the government will have to do away with Dar type economic management and push for reforms under a new set of financial managers. This is easier said than done on four accounts. One, that under a PML-N government, no one but Dar is seen competent to run the economy because he is not just a close aide of three-time premier Nawaz Sharif, but his son is also married to the self-exiled former premier’s daughter. When family interests are so entrenched, there is hardly any room left for rational and objective decision-making.

The second objection of those calling for an immediate caretaker set-up is that the Shehbaz Sharif government lacks credibility and trust of the people because of the allegations of corruption and misrule against its top leaders. A government lacking credibility and popularity is hardly in a position to push for reforms, and is likely to face stiff resistance from the general public even if it does so.

Thirdly, with an incomplete National Assembly (NA), where one-sided and self-serving legislations are being done, expecting political stability and pushing any agenda for reforms is not just undoable, but even unthinkable. And fourthly, Imran Khan, despite his anti-government campaign having apparently lost steam, remains a potent challenge for the government. The fact that he and his party are staying out of the NA and are in a continuous protest mode will keep the government under pressure and unsettled. Under these circumstances the installation of a caretaker government led by technocrats could act as a buffer between the warring political interest groups and help defuse the situation.

For the PDM, it would mean getting some time to revive its political fortunes, given the public’s short memory. As for the PTI, Imran Khan’s arch nemeses – the Sharifs, Zardaris and Fazl – won’t be in the driving seat. The caretakers can take all the tough economic decisions needed to revive the economy, and create a conducive environment for the next general elections to be held in a transparent and fair manner. However, the first hitch here is who would bell the cat – meaning who will decide the caretakers acceptable to both the rival sets of politicians. The second hitch is how to give legal and constitutional cover to a caretaker set-up beyond its three-month mandate. Here, perhaps the judiciary can step in.

All of this is wishful thinking and speculation for now, without any solid basis and ownership from the powers that matter. However, under these abnormal circumstances, when all else fails, this may prove to be the last option. The plan needs to be seriously explored and implemented before it is too late.

Yes, 2023 welcomes Pakistan with all its uncertainties and risks. May it, hopefully, still be a happy new year!

Stormy Waters

By Amir Zia
January 1, 2023
Bol News

The New Year begins with Pakistan adrift in a sea of economic and political uncertainty

For a politically polarised and economically impoverished Pakistan, the New Year starts on a dismal note. The mega-mess on the country’s political chessboard is stymieing efforts to fix the economy, while the deteriorating macro-economic indicators are fueling political and social chasms. In a nutshell, a myriad of political and economic crises are feeding on one another, pushing the state of Pakistan into unchartered stormy waters. And the ruling elite has no bailout plan — tried, tested or new — to save the country from the shipwreck that is increasingly becoming all too frighteningly possible.

On the economic front, experts say that there are only two options for Pakistan in 2023: implement the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme in totality or face default on foreign debt repayments.

But Finance Minister Ishaq Dar’s obsession with the exchange rate, which he is trying to maintain at artificially high levels by hook or crook, has emerged as the main bone of contention in regard to the release of the 9th IMF tranche due since early November. The IMF wants the foreign currency market to determine the value of the Pakistan currency, while Dar is fixated on keeping the rupee over-valued. This obsession has not just stalled the IMF programme, but created a parallel black market. The continued fall in foreign remittances sent by overseas Pakistanis is the result of a thriving black market.

The outflow of dollars to Afghanistan through illegal means has also become a massive problem for Pakistan. Until the US-led NATO troops remained in Afghanistan, the flow of dollars was the other way round — from Afghanistan to Pakistan.

The other two main IMF demands are energy sector reforms and expanding the tax base. Both these items have been on the agenda of every successive Pakistani government, but none wanted to pay the political price of their implementation.

The IMF wants Pakistan to manage its circular debt now hovering at the staggering level of 3.5 trillion rupees in both the power and gas sectors. This means hiking electricity and gas prices, rationalising both, and slashing their distribution losses.

The IMF also wants the government to mobilise an additional 600 billion rupees through taxes and increased revenues. But all these measures are a big “no” for the Shehbaz Sharif government, which has an eye on the 2023 general elections. But if the government fails to take the steps asked for by the IMF, it will hurt Pakistan even more.

According to experts, the measures suggested by the IMF are painful, but the default on debt repayments will be much more devastating for the country. Yet, reforms are nowhere on the agenda of this beleaguered government, which appears to lack both the capacity and the political will to take unpopular measures. Since coming to power in April, the coalition government of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) has wasted eight precious months by not taking the necessary steps. And if it wastes another eight because of political expediency, the results will be disastrous for the country. Therefore, the first six to eight weeks of 2023 are crucial for economic decision-making and will define which path the government wants to take.

Experts say that while implementing the IMF programme, the government should try to go for a long-term rollover of its short-term liabilities to get some breathing space. The flow of money from friendly countries, like China and the Gulf states, could ease pressure for a month or two, but things will inevitably go back to square-one in the absence of reforms. So minus reforms, borrowing more to settle old loans is a self-defeating exercise. And now, even Pakistan’s longstanding friends appear wary of this never-ending cycle of dishing out loans, one after another.

Indeed, the working and the middle classes, already suffering the brunt of record-high inflation and the economic crunch, will further be squeezed, whether the government implements the IMF programme or not.

The government’s failure to give targeted subsidies is also compounding the problem. The IMF stands opposed to untargeted subsidies, which benefit the rich and the upper classes more than the deserving, at the cost of the national exchequer. These untargeted subsidies need to be stopped — a decision which no government wants to take.

While the industrial output is declining in Pakistan due to the slowdown of the economy, including the government’s measures to curb demand and squeeze imports, another big challenge for the country comes from the agriculture sector. There are fears that the wheat crop will be at least 40 per cent lower in 2023 due to last year’s devastating floods and a steep rise in the prices of Di-ammonium Phosphate, popularly known as DAP, used by farmers for sowing Pakistan’s main food grain. According to the market sources, there has been a steep decline in DAP sales due to its rising cost. This means a likely wheat shortage would aggravate the economic crisis and push up the flour prices even further.

While the economic outlook is bleak, on the political front uncertainty looms large against the backdrop of the seemingly unending confrontation between the key political players. The entire country is guessing whether the highly unpopular Shehbaz Sharif government will be able to cross the August finish-line when the Parliament completes its five-year term, and even if it does, at what cost? With the sword of elections hanging over its head, this coalition government is in a state of paralysis, avoiding those life and death reforms and decisions which are a must to stabilise the economy. Given a chance, it would certainly want to extend the term of the assemblies for a year or more, but that is easier said than done. The paucity of time is the real dilemma for the government. It cannot call early elections given the expected blowback from the voters, reeling because of the record inflation, eroding incomes, and slowdown of economic activity.

So will the economic situation change by the time elections are due in October or November 2023? Even the senior pundits within the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) are not ready to bet on the change of the country’s economic fortunes in such a short time. The pain has to increase before the country’s economic health starts recovering — and that can only happen in time, over a period of two to three years. Therefore, early elections or even those on time do not suit the political parties in the ruling coalition.

The state institutions, too, find themselves cornered and short of choices. The negative perception about many top faces in the Shehbaz Sharif-led government is a millstone around their necks. While the institutions are silently working to politically and economically stabilise the country, taking too much ownership of the PDM – consisting mainly of the Sharifs, Zardaris and Maulana Fazl-ur Rehman & Co. – offers bad optics. Although both the Shehbaz Sharif government and the state institutions are working together for now, they have a history of trust deficit. The Pakistan Army – under the command of the new Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Syed Asim Munir – is spread too thin on many fronts, including fighting the new wave of terrorism. Playing a role to help end the political instability without dirtying their own hands in politics will be a Herculean task for the military high command. Yet, many Pakistanis believe that the Pakistan Army – the country’s most disciplined, organised and modern institution – alone can play a decisive role in disentangling the current political knot the country is mired in.

Meanwhile, the tireless anti-government campaign of former premier Imran Khan seems to have lost momentum after his November 26 Rawalpindi rally. Although the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman remains by far the most popular leader in the country, his anti-government campaign seems to be losing steam. The system and the state have proved too powerful for him – at least for now — as they have managed to stall Imran Khan from dissolving the two provincial assemblies of the Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, which he wanted to do in his bid to force early elections. Imran Khan is playing with an increasingly weak hand because of an unreliable ally in the form of Chief Minister Punjab Chaudhry Pervaiz Elhai and his Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q), and the wavering of many lawmakers within the ranks of his own PTI. The ferocious and no-holds-barred character assassination campaign and the string of cases against him show what awaits him in 2023 as his opponents in the government get relief after relief in mega corruption cases. Despite his massive public support, Imran Khan will have to perform a high-wire act to mend fences with the military establishment and revive the trust of a number of foreign and local stakeholders in the fact that he won’t act just as a spoiler, but will play ball within the conventional boundaries of Pakistan’s statecraft. But for now, it seems 2023 will be a tough year for Imran Khan, even while making the life of his political opponents tough.

In the midst of all this, is the renewed speculation about the installation of a technocratic government with a long-term mandate? While the PTI and apparently the PDM both reject the very idea, it is seen more as a test balloon than fact — at least at present.  However, if someone, somewhere decides to turn the speculation about the technocrat set-up into reality, at least a section of the mainstream political parties will have to take ownership for it – covertly or overtly. In the present scenario, any possible technocrat set-up would suit the PDM, because it would take all the unpleasant decisions and allow the current set of ruling parties to recover from the dent in their following because of their latest stint in power.

In a nutshell, political stability appears elusive in 2023’s Pakistan, where elections appear so near, yet so far.

Imran Khan’s New Gamble

Former premier’s proposal to defer the appointment of the new army chief raises hopes of a breakthrough in the lingering stalemate, but insiders say the political tussle remains far from over

By Amir Zia

Sept. 18. 2022

Bol Weekly Newspaper

Former prime minister Imran Khan has created waves in the murky waters of Pakistani politics with his call for “deferring” the appointment of the new army chief until fresh elections are held, but senior officials of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) say the proposal does not mean that the party’s top leaders have established any formal contacts with the military establishment.
“There has been no official response either from Rawalpindi or Islamabad as to whether they have accepted or rejected this idea,” a close aide of Imran Khan told Bol News. “But they are under tremendous pressure because their strategy to bring economic and political stability in the country has totally failed.”
Imran Khan had said in an interview given to senior journalist Kamran Khan on Monday, 12 September, that the minority Shehbaz Sharif government which only has 85 seats of its own in the National Assembly should not appoint the new army chief, and that this important decision should be left to the new government.
However, a number of senior leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) have rejected Imran Khan’s proposal, saying the appointment of the new army chief remains a prerogative of the prime minister, whether or not Mr. Khan likes it.
The incumbent Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), General Qamar Javed Bajwa, is set to retire in November after completing his second three-year term in office. Imran Khan’s supporters say that this important appointment should be made by the new government rather than what they call the “corruption-tainted” politicians.
Imran Khan’s aide, who requested anonymity, said that his party wanted early elections in the country without resorting to any “conflict or bloodshed.”
“But there are serious moves to get Imran Khan disqualified,” he said. “Those in power must remember that when Nawaz Sharif was disqualified from holding public office, or when doors of domestic politics were slammed on Altaf Hussain, they both were among the most unpopular politicians. Here you have a leader who is already at the zenith of his popularity.”
Another senior PTI official said that Imran Khan had not proposed that General Bajwa be given another extension. “What he meant was that a status-quo should be maintained until the holding of the next elections. By doing this, Imran Khan has given a way out to the army to defuse political tensions and prevent any controversy for the new army chief if he is appointed by a compromised set of politicians.”
A senior army official, while explaining the process of the army chief’s appointment, said that there are important matters which cannot be deferred or put on hold because of politics.
“Appointment of the army chief is the prime minister’s responsibility. He can pick any Lieutenant General among the top four or five on the seniority list for this slot. It hardly matters whether he is selected by prime minister ‘A’ or prime minister ‘B’. The system should work as per the Constitution… there is a chain of appointments that follows once this decision is made.”
The PTI sources allege that the entire system is working to damage and erode the support-base of their party.
“They are targeting Imran Khan and trying to dismantle our party… there has been a multi-front assault on us. They tried to bring a change in the provincial government in Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa, but failed. Now the same effort is on in Punjab,” the PTI official said.
Imran Khan, too, has made the same allegations in his public meetings.
The PTI official also alleged that the PTI lawmakers and leaders are receiving threatening calls in which they are asked to change their loyalties.”
“The minus-one formula (minus Imran Khan) is on top of their agenda. The powers that be know that without Imran Khan, the PTI would collapse.”
Multiple PTI sources say that Imran Khan appears determined to give a final protest call sooner than later. “It will be done this month. There will be agitation.”
However, the former premier’s aide said that defusing political polarization should be on top of the agenda. “The government should be clear that eventually they will have to go for elections. The longer the government delays it, the more unpopular it is going to become because they are unable to manage the economy which is likely to worsen further in the days ahead. Therefore, early elections should also suit them.”
He said that the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) – comprising the PML-N, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and others – committed a blunder by shooting down the proposal of early elections by Prime Minister Imran Khan when it was conveyed to them through the COAS. “If elections were held at that time, the fight would have been even. But now it will be a landslide victory for the PTI.”
A senior PML-N leader and a close aide of Nawaz Sharif, who spoke on condition of anonymity, admitted that early elections remain the only way out of this simmering political and economic crisis.
“I am not saying that the economic mess would go away the moment elections are held. But a new elected government would come with a fresh mandate and would be in a better position to take long-term economic decisions, something this government can’t do,” he said.
Admitting that the PDM leadership made a mistake by forcing the no-confidence motion against Imran Khan in April this year, he said it had revived Mr. Khan’s politics and popularity.
“During a year between March 2021 and February 2022, the PTI won only one out of 13 seats to which by-elections were held. It also lost recent local bodies elections in Cantonment areas… as well as in the PTI-ruled KP province during the first phase. But now the tide has turned. One example is the NA-245 by-election in Karachi, where the government-backed candidate lost against the PTI with a huge margin despite support from the federal, provincial as well as the city governments. But irrespective of who wins or loses, Pakistan needs to go for elections. No government can deliver without having a complete five-year mandate,” the PML-N leader said.
Another PML-N leader, who hails from Karachi and enjoys close ties with Nawaz Sharif, said the current polarisation and divisions are dangerous for the state. “There is a division not just in society, but also within the institutions. The best solution would be that each institution works within its constitutional parameters. As far as Imran Khan is concerned, his brinkmanship won’t pay off as the contempt of court case is of a serious nature. He and his party would soon be history.” 
However, the PML-N leader quoted earlier differs with this view. “The Imran Khan phenomenon won’t go away by banning him from politics. He will be back on D-Chowk in case he is artificially ousted. Therefore, elections remain the only way forward.”

Exposing the fallacy of 'deal'

By Amir Zia
January 8, 2022
Bol News

The state’s lack of capacity to hold the corrupt accountable and failure to ensure the rule of law is keeping the country in perpetual political turmoil. These are the challenges which require resetting the system and introducing sweeping structural changes.

The Pakistan Army had to officially deny rumours of a deal between former premier Nawaz Sharif and the establishment to take the wind out of the double-edged propaganda campaign which, on one hand, aimed to destabilise the government and discredit the military leadership and, on the other, create political space for one of the most corruption-tainted political families of the country.

Major General Babar Iftikhar, the Director General of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), in his short but emphatic response to a question, during his first briefing of 2022, called speculations of a deal with Nawaz Sharif “baseless” and said that individuals making these claims should be asked to give evidence and name those making such offers. DG ISPR’s response was in line with the Pakistan Army’s policy of operating within its constitutional ambit and not getting into the business of making or breaking of the governments as was once the norm in the 1990s.

But it seems that Pakistan’s traditional parties – aka the political establishment – from the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and their allies want to rewind time and embark on a journey into the past. The journey which takes them to the era of the 1990s when one political party conspired against the other by striking underhand deals with the establishment. The brazen loot and plunder and gross mismanagement forced the establishment of those times to support change in hopes of a better outcome, which unfortunately never materialised.

Times changed, but not the old habits of politicians who thrive on dynastic politics and manipulation of the weak and flawed democratic institutions of the country. No wonder, all the major opposition players – from Sharifs to Zardaris – are still looking towards the establishment for their return to the corridors of power, though for the public consumption their leadership keeps issuing politically correct statements. Just as both the PML-N and the PPP repeated this mantra after DG ISPR’s briefing of January 5 that they bank on nothing else but the power of votes.

However, their compulsions of realpolitik remain totally opposite. If, in a recent speech in Nawabshah, former president Asif Ali Zardari in not so veiled terms asked the establishment to first send this government packing, the PML-N too came up with its own story of a deal which would pave way for Nawaz Sharif’s return and eventual ascend to power. The planted story of Sharif’s return was bought hook, line and sinker by many of our “informed analysts and mediapersons” who painted it as a done deal.

However, in their passion to push the storyline of “Sharif’s triumphant return,” they completely ignored the fact that the former Premier was not just an absconder, but a certified convict. Only by trampling the law of the land and the constitution, could Nawaz Sharif be given a clean chit in the blink of an eye.

Was it even logical to think that the military leadership would do this for Nawaz Sharif or for that matter any other politician by setting aside all the principles, the law and the constitution? How any institution or its leadership could have explained this about-turn to the masses? How could this be explained even to its own rank-and-file?

And for that matter is the establishment oblivious of the hostility and antagonism Nawaz Sharif, his daughter Maryam and handful of close loyalists harbour towards the institution of the army? The PML-N’s ruling family – read the duo of Nawaz and Maryam – not just want to target a few individual officials, but they want to change the whole complexion of the army. Sharif in the past too had tried to transform the Pakistan Army into the Punjab Police by interfering in postings and promotions, but failed to have his way. Now after the ouster from power for the third time, which was because of Sharif’s involvement in the Panama Scandal, he still holds the Army responsible for his disgraceful exit and wants to settle the score by maligning the institution and its leadership.

Those who orchestrated the story of the deal – now being vehemently denied by the PML-N leaders – wanted to cash in on the recent friction between Prime Minister Imran Khan and the military leadership over the appointment of the ISI chief. The aim was to create mistrust and try to widen any possible wedge between the two sides. But that episode is done and over with and the civil and military leadership are back on their normal working relations.

However, this did not stop Nawaz loyalists from pushing the story that the military leadership is desperate to get rid of Imran Khan and wants Nawaz Sharif back to pull the country out of its economic challenges. Some close aides of Sharif were seen proudly boasting that it was Nawaz Sharif, who kept stiff conditions for a deal in which a public apology from the institution remains one of the top demands.

But there are many in the government and the opposition camp who know that many of the economic issues are the result of structural flaws and inherent weaknesses of the system and corruption of the past rulers. Imran Khan and his team’s lack of capacity alone is not responsible for the deterioration of conditions, given his government’s thin majority in the Parliament and a hostile but entrenched interest group working 24/7 to make it unsuccessful – from those in the political to the media establishment.

Imran Khan’s stubbornness and mistaken priorities may have complicated some of the challenges, but on many of the broader issues, there are no fundamental differences between the civil and military leadership. Both sides are well aware of the grave challenges faced by the country on the domestic and external fronts and know that it can ill-afford any misadventure or heightened political instability.

However, the agenda of the opposition is to keep the political pot on the boil at the cost of political stability of the country. By doing this, the opposition wants to maintain pressure on the government and show its relevance. Hence, the regular and frequent calls for agitation and protests as the PPP announced its anti-government march for February 27 and the PDM threatening to do the same in March. This never-ending protest mood, agitation and political polarisation is an in-built flaw of parliamentary democracy, which is one key reason hampering stability and progress in Pakistan.

The state’s lack of capacity to hold the corrupt accountable and failure to ensure the rule of law is keeping the country in perpetual political turmoil. These are the challenges which require resetting the system and introducing sweeping structural changes. Unfortunately, this is not even on the PTI agenda.

Yet, Prime Minister Imran Khan still has a good one-and-a-half year in power before the 2023 elections. And even if his government operates within this degenerated and flawed parliamentary system of democracy, it can at least put the accountability process back on track to ensure that the corrupt stays out of the electoral politics and address some of the economic issues to mitigate the burden on the common man, who is been squeezed by rising inflation and falling income. To achieve even these minimalistic goals, the civil and military leadership would have to work in tandem and that too, against all the odds.

Going by the initial signs, 2022 is all set to take Pakistan on another rough ride in which heightened political polarisation, growing instability and uncertainty would remain the order of the day. Unfortunately, the state cannot put the house in order without stamping down hard on factors responsible for this situation. And to do this, overhauling the system inside out is a must. But who will bell the cat? Your guess is as good as mine.

The writer is the Editor-in-Chief, Bol Media Group

Captain’s no-ball

By Amir Zia
Bol News Oped
October 18, 2021  

If the past is any guide, the appointment of the DG ISI had always been a standard and straightforward affair. The Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) would send his recommendation to the Prime Minister, which got accepted without any ifs and buts. And why not? 

Prime Minister Imran Khan has delivered a ‘no-ball’ at the most crucial stage of his political innings and is likely to pay the price for this mega-slip. His mind boggling, needless and self-harming tiff with the mighty military establishment over the appointment of Director-General (DG) of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has thrown a spanner in an otherwise routine affair within the Pakistan Army. Since October 6 to-date, half of the high-level transfers and postings announced by the military high command remain on hold – a situation which had never occurred in the past. This unprecedented and bizarre controversy has also infused a new element of uncertainty in an already fragile and dysfunctional political system.

What the Prime Minister’s aides describe as a mere “technical glitch” in a bid to downplay the deadlock over the appointment of the new DG ISI has already resulted in a huge trust-deficit between civil and military leaders and blown away the perception – painstakingly build in recent years — of them being on the same-page.

Indeed, the Prime Minister’s rash and obstinate attitude has made Pakistan a laughing stock before the world – among friends and foes alike — and dragged the country’s most sensitive institution into the full public glare for all the wrong reasons. Even many of Imran Khan’s trusted aides realise that their Captain stands on the wrong side of the fence on this issue because of his fixation with an individual and insistence on changing rules of the game — defying both principle and logic. As the impasse drags on, the once harmonious relations between the two power-centres of the country have turned sore despite some hectic efforts by their common go-betweens to control the damage. Insiders on both sides of the fence acknowledge that chances of the Prime Minister being able to thrust his choice on the Army is starkly remote, and he is unlikely to get even a face-saving exit from this self-created controversy.

If the past is any guide, the appointment of the DG ISI had always been a standard and straightforward affair. The Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) would send his recommendation to the Prime Minister, which got accepted without any ifs and buts. And why not? Who would know better than the COAS himself where to place a three-star general? Earlier, during Imran Khan’s own term as Prime Minister, the last two DG ISI – Lt. General Asim Munir and Lt. General Faiz Hameed – were appointed in a similar fashion. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) made the announcement in the same manner as it announced the appointment of Lt. General Nadeem Anjum as the new DG ISI on October 6.

During the previous government of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), both Lt. General Rizwan Akhtar and Lt. General Naveed Mukhtar were also appointed as DG ISI the same way. The then Prime Minister did not ask for three names to select one out of them and none was called for an interview. The COAS’s decision was respected, even though technically DG ISI reports to the Prime Minister. Reporting to the civilian authority, however, doesn’t mean that the selection of the country’s spymaster has become the domain of the Prime Minister, who doesn’t have the required expertise and knowledge to take such a decision.

One should thank the Almighty that political interference had never been allowed in the Armed Forces, although some of our politicos always dreamt of treating them as they treated the Sindh or the Punjab Police in which almost every appointment gets made on the recommendation of this or that heavy or light weight lawmaker or minister.  

The storyline that some ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) cabinet members and Imran Khan’s loyalists initially tried to peddle that the Prime Minister does not want a change in the ISI’s command for the next few months because of the precarious situation in Afghanistan, does not hold any ground. Why? Because as an institution, the ISI always ensured continuity of policies and guarded the core national interests despite the routine changes in its leadership. This underlines the fact that institutions always remain bigger than any individual and it ought to be like that.

As DG ISI, Lt. General Faiz Hameed played an eventful innings. Many of his valuable services and initiatives for the country’s security and advancing the national goals as the top spymaster will never be known and one can only guess at a few of them. But that has been the proud tradition of this institution and its successive leaders. They all work in shadows.

General Faiz has now a new challenge, an assignment before him as Commander of the IX Corps responsible for Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’s security. The new DG ISI would draw strength from the institution just like his predecessors and business as usual will continue in Abpara, Islamabad where the spy agency is headquartered. The country’s most disciplined organisation of the Armed Forces will remain unruffled by the captain’s ‘no-ball.’

But following this so-called notification fiasco, Pakistan’s civil and military leadership must now make concerted efforts to ensure that the country’s premier spy-agency and its leadership must be kept out of all such controversies, and away from the public radar as much as possible. Pushing the ISI and its top official in the limelight should always be a big no under all circumstances. The strength and effectiveness of spy work lies in anonymity. Even its top boss – the public face of the agency – must be kept away from the media glare.

At the same time, it is a moment of reckoning for Prime Minister Imran Khan and his aides. They need to ponder over the fallout of this self-created, unnecessary controversy. What did they gain out of it and what did they lose? The advisable course would be to focus on the damage control – which should start immediately. Taking a step back by the Prime Minister would be a small beginning in this direction. The sooner the suspense ends over DG ISI’s appointment, and the matter gets resolved, the better it is for the government, the system, and the country.

The takeaway lesson: No one should try to dictate to institutions on personal whims and wishes. This weakens the system and results in confrontation among institutions which Pakistan can ill-afford at this critical juncture.

Prime Minister Imran Khan’s besieged government already has many fronts to worry about, including the country’s lingering economic woes, the derailed accountability process, strained relations with the United States, and confrontation with India over the occupied Kashmir, a volatile Afghanistan on the west… the list can go on and on. Therefore, this is not the time, Mr. Prime Minister, to lock horns with the institution that has remained supportive to your house of cards all through. Rather, the civil and military leadership should work in tandem to pull the country out of the crisis. Therefore, remaining on the same page is vital.

The skipper should refrain from throwing any more “no-balls” as his quota of bad political deliveries has already been exhausted. He should rather work to restore trust among institutions and deliver on at least some of his election promises in the remaining two years of his term rather than picking up avoidable battles.

The writer is Editor-in-Chief, Bol Media Group

 

Hate Content On Social Media

By Amir Zia
November 2020

Monthly Hilal 

Hate content, which can never, ever pass the stringent filters of the traditional media even today, spreads like wildfire on the social media. And the irony is that authorities and regulators can do little to curb it in a timely manner.  

Dissemination of hate content on the social media has remained a lingering challenge for Pakistan. But in recent weeks and months, there has been a sharp surge in the availability of such material on various social media platforms. 
Short video clips, ridiculing and attacking religious beliefs, sacred personalities and customs of one or the other sect are being widely and systematically circulated on social media in an attempt to stoke sectarian hate and violence in the country. At times, video clips from the speeches of prominent religious scholars and clerics are edited in such a way that they appear to convey totally the opposite of what was actually said. Again the aim is to widen fissures among Muslim sects and pitch their zealots against one another. 
Just ahead of Muharram – the first month of the Muslim calendar – ‘hate trends’ were created on Twitter condemning and calling for action against a particular sect. Similar counter trends and provocative defiant messages were hurled from the other side too. 
Some clerics added fuel to the fire through their insensitive, controversial and hateful remarks, which were disseminated by their friends and foes alike on the social media. 
The communication revolution and social media platforms indeed serve as a blessing for a vast majority of people, who use them to communicate with their loved ones, build groups of like-minded individuals for different causes, share information, to educate, to learn and build and expand their businesses. But the biggest downside of these platforms remains the free-flow of hate material that threatens the very fabric of many of the ethnically and religiously heterogeneous societies, including that of Pakistan. 
Hate content, which can never, ever pass the stringent filters of the traditional media even today, spreads like wildfire on the social media. And the irony is that authorities and regulators can do little to curb it in a timely manner.  
Indeed, the challenge of curbing hate-material is a complicated one. It is like a double-edged sword which can cut both ways. For those who hold freedom of expression close to their heart, any attempt to regulate social media platforms means a direct assault on their fundamental rights. The small, but organized and influential minority of activists remain skeptical of any legislation aimed at regulating the new media platforms and say that the government will ‘exploit’ it to stifle what they call the legitimate voice of dissent in the country.
But even a bigger challenge than these activists are the giant global social media platforms. They operate from abroad and have little regard for Pakistani laws and cultural and religious sensitivities. They may cooperate with Pakistan’s request on blocking a certain post or they may choose to sleep over it for a while or ignore it altogether. The decision and the power to act is in their hands. 
The huge quantum of hate-material churned out on an hourly and daily basis also makes it difficult, if not impossible, for the authorities to identify each and every such post and raise red-flag with the concerned social media company in a prompt manner. By the time authorities move against any hate-post, the damage in most cases has already been done. 
Then, there are many other “ifs” and “buts” in dealing with global social media giants, some of whom now operate regional offices from India – a traditional foe. Obviously, when Indians are working for these social media platforms, they are the ones who call the shots in certain cases or at least are responsible for the execution of decisions, especially regarding the blocking of hate and religiously sensitive material and anti-Pakistan content. Yet, at the same time, they are fast in suppressing any voices, which highlight the legitimate freedom struggle in the occupied Kashmir, and the plight and targeting of Muslims living in India by the extremist Hindu nationalists. 
The huge clout of these companies, which operate under the umbrella of Asia Internet Coalition (AIC), has made framing and implementation of effective social media rules difficult. Facebook, Twitter, Google, Airbnb, Amazon, Apple, Expedia, LinkedIn, LINE and Rakuten – the member companies of the AIC – have so far ignored Pakistan’s requests that they open their regional offices here. At the same time, these companies have by-and-large showed an insensitivity towards Pakistani concerns regarding the use of their platforms by the extremist elements. 
According to Maulana Tahir Mehmood Ashrafi, chief of the All Pakistan Ulema Council and special representative to the prime minister on religious harmony, the “misuse of social media poses a greater threat to the state compared to enemy tanks, missiles and other sophisticated weapons.”
“The irresponsible use of the social media is putting relations among the followers of various sects at stake,” he said.
And Maulana Ashrafi’s concerns have solid grounds. 
For instance, during last Muharram Pakistani authorities identified a sectarian hate trend, which was promoted by more than 5,000 users. On investigating, it was found out that only 70 of the 5,000 users fanning this trend were operating from Pakistan, while the rest were from abroad, especially India. But the target users of this trend were Pakistanis and the aim was to trigger a conflict among followers of different sects. 
This is what is being defined by the security experts as the hybrid war, which has been imposed on Pakistan by its enemies with an aim to sow confusion and division among Pakistanis in a way that it results in violence, chaos, anarchy and instability within the country. And many Pakistanis facilitate the enemy objectives by design or default. Their words become their actions. 
For example, the All Pakistan Ulema Council forwarded to the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority a list of 100 or so YouTube channels which were involved in fanning hate on sectarian and religious ground. But, according to Maulana Ashrafi, the PTA expressed its limitations in dealing with such material effectively as it remains the prerogative of the YouTube if and when they remove such content. 
“Freedom of speech is important… but it does not mean attacking and ridiculing other peoples’ beliefs, customs and sacred personalities,” Maulana Ashrafi said.
In the same spirit, Prime Minister Imran Khan on October 25 wrote a letter to Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO of Facebook, to ban Islamophobia just as it banned questioning or criticizing of the holocaust. “Given the rampant abuse and vilification of Muslims on social media platforms, I would ask you to place a similar ban on Islamophobia and hate against Islam for Facebook that you have put in place for the Holocaust. The message of hate must be banned in total…”, Prime Minister Khan wrote. 
While there is a broader issue of Islamophobia and hate material against Muslims, which has a potential of leading to active hostilities and violence, Pakistan’s immediate challenge is also to curb the use of social media which is being used to incite sectarian hate and violence. 
How to meet the challenge of unsocial, extremist and criminal attitudes and activities on the social media? Finding an answer to this question is easier said than done. 
To begin with, the government must expedite framing of the social media rules, which remain pending since February this year when Prime Minister Khan directed the Information Technology Ministry to initiate this process. 
The government would have to adopt a multi-pronged strategy to streamline the social media that must include incentives for the global companies to open shop in Pakistan as well as bringing their income under the tax net. At the same time, the government should ensure swift and efficient punitive action against those found involved in using social media platforms for fanning hate material. Right now even if laws are there against the hate-speech and misuse of social media, they are not being implemented.
If there is a need to further strengthen these laws it must be done on a war footing. Pakistan can borrow a page from Turkey on how it manages the social media, which if left unregulated, results in intensifying polarization and discord in the developing countries.   
Engaging stakeholders is important, but this engagement should be done with a firm deadline and in no way mean that the state and its institutions surrender before the organized, and in some cases, west-sponsored rights’ groups, which advocate and demand unregulated freedom on both the social and traditional media. 
The government also needs to explore the possibility of making licenses, NOCs or declaration mandatory for setting up YouTube channels and websites operating from Pakistan. Setting up a news channel or bringing out a news publication remains a lengthy and cumbersome business in Pakistan, but opening up media platforms on social media and creating websites and YouTube channels remain only a click away. Of course, this doesn’t mean that the government should make establishing the later platforms as difficult as that of traditional media, but the social media platforms need to be streamlined and regulated. At the same time, government should ensure easier processes for setting up new traditional media outlets which need to be encouraged and boosted to stand against the tide of fake news, propaganda, outright lies and hate content spread through the new media.
Freedom of expression is important, but it must come with responsibility. No one should be allowed the freedom to wreck the harmony of our society or damage the state and its institutions.

Ends

  

Neither War, Nor Peace

By Amir Zia

March 2019

Monthly Newsline

In the latest crisis with India, the Pakistani leadership has displayed a great deal of sagacity, restraint and maturity to avoid a war. Now Prime Minister Imran Khan and his team have to stay the course and utilise the crisis to write a new set of rules in Pakistan’s favour

After all the menacing warmongering, dangerous posturing and tit-for-tat attacks, Pakistan and India have apparently pulled back from the brink of a full-blown war. 
If the credit for preventing an all-out conflict goes to the hectic overt and covert efforts by global and regional powers, Pakistan unarguably also helped in de-escalation through its measured military and diplomatic response to the Indian aggression and display of extreme restraint despite serious provocation. 

The uneasy lull notwithstanding, Pakistani and Indian troops remain locked in a heavy exchange of mortar and artillery fire along the Line of Control (LoC) in the divided Himalayan region of Kashmir and in other border areas. The disputed frontier – where the Indians have resorted to more than 3,000 ceasefire violations in 2018 alone – is likely to remain an intermittent conflict zone in the foreseeable future, as the prospects for peace are bleak given India’s intransigent stance on the issue. 

While Indian forces continue to target civilians along the LoC and the working boundary, the Pakistani military – as per its standard operating procedure –makes sure to fire with care to avoid villagers being hit in Occupied Kashmir. 
And so, against the backdrop of deafening artillery fire and a pounding of mortar shells in various areas of the disputed region, Kashmir is again calling for international attention as the most dangerous nuclear flashpoint in the world. Any sharp escalation of hostilities and even a small miscalculation by either of the nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours has the potential to spin out of control and result in a doomsday scenario for not just the region, but even the world.

Using the bogey of terrorism, India is setting the pace of the conflict against Pakistan, through both words and actions.  

Islamabad’s repeated peace overtures and offers for talks on assorted issues, including Kashmir and the challenge of terrorism in the region, have so far been haughtily rejected by New Delhi. And Prime Minister Imran Khan’s decision to free Abhinandan Varthaman, the pilot of the downed Indian fighter aircraft, is being portrayed by the jingoistic Indian media and leadership as an act induced by external pressure rather than a goodwill gesture.

And so while international diplomatic efforts have helped avert the danger of a full-blown war for now, chances of sustained and meaningful bilateral talks between the two countries before or after the Indian general elections – scheduled in April-May this year – appear slim. 

Even if talks resume – as they have done several times in the past – whether or not the two neighbours will be able to take even few baby steps towards resolving their disputes, including the core dispute of Kashmir, remains a key question.  And if the core issue remains unresolved, will Pakistan and India be able to carve out a roadmap for peace and confidence-building measures, or at least opt for a prolonged season of cold peace? In the current environment of hostilities, particularly from the Indian side, the possibility of even holding talks for the sake of talks appears remote. 

The records of the bilateral “composite dialogue,” which started in 1985 and dragged on till 2008, followed by a “comprehensive dialogue” that began in 2015, indicate that the two countries failed to address even those issues – such as the dispute over Sir Creek and Siachen Glacier – which were seen as ‘low hanging fruits’ that were easy to pluck. The responsibility for the failure of the bilateral talks overwhelmingly rests on the shoulders of New Delhi which did not implement the decisions considered a done deal after the talks, such as a pulling out of troops from the Siachen Glacier. 

So if the past is any guide, why the result of any such efforts in the future would be different is a point to ponder, as an economically buoyant India attempts to redefine red lines in its favour vis-a-via Pakistan on the back of New Delhi’s growing diplomatic clout in key world capitals. 

For Pakistan, the situation has never been as challenging and tricky in recent years as it now stands, with prospects for regional peace remaining precarious.

Pakistan – despite constraints – gave an effective military and political response following the crossing of the LoC and international frontiers by Indian fighter aircraft on February 26 to bomb a deserted area in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa province. Though India contends hitting an alleged “terrorist camp,” there is no evidence on the ground to back these claims. 

India justified the attack in the name of self-defence and in retaliation to the February 14 suicide bombing in Occupied Kashmir’s Pulwama area which killed more than 40 Indian soldiers. But according to Foreign Office sources at home, in the dossier presented to Pakistan after the escalation of hostilities, India failed to provide any definitive evidence of Pakistani involvement in the attack.

Although the Indian attack failed, it was an indisputable act of aggression that aimed to set a precedent in India’s favour for the future. Pakistan had no choice other than to respond. The very next day, pilots of the Pakistan Air Force downed two Indian fighter aircrafts and bombed six targets in Occupied Kashmir, clearly demonstrating the forces’ capacity, ability and will to retaliate when attacked. However, even the retaliation was restrained. Director General, Inter Services Public Relations, Maj. General Asif Ghafoor told reporters that as the Indian attack did not cause any loss of life, the PAF bombed close to Indian military positions rather than hitting them directly to avoid damage and casualties. (SEE BOX FOR DETAILS) 

Facts also exposed India’s propaganda. The Pulwama attacker was a local youngster, Aqeel Dar, who wanted to avenge Indian atrocities in the occupied region. Dar had joined militants because he was humiliated and tortured by Indian troops. Yet, even before the fires of the Pulwama attack had been doused, anti-Pakistan hysteria gripped the Indian media.  

And while Pakistan scored some tactical diplomatic and military success in this latest Indo-Pak impasse, its one-sided efforts to lower tensions do not raise many hopes for peace, as India remains adamant about pursuing new rules of engagement.

Firstly, the Indian leadership is confident that the time is now ripe to up the anté of tension with Pakistan in the push to establish India as an unchallenged dominant power in the region and beyond. This confidence emerges due to India’s growing economic clout and its strategic partnership with the United States. That partnership was seen at work recently as Washington endorsed the Indian position that it had carried out “counter-terrorism actions on February 26” and advised Pakistan to take “meaningful action against terrorist groups operating on its soil.” 

New Delhi has also been able to build relationships with other regional countries and neutralise some of Pakistan’s allies. The appearance of the Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj as guest of honour at the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) remains one example of India’s successful diplomatic push.

Secondly, India wants to divert attention from its human rights violations and the state-terrorism it has unleashed against citizens in Occupied Kashmir. 

Thirdly, India aims to paint the burgeoning legitimate, and now entirely indigenous freedom struggle in Kashmir, as terrorism. And in the post-9/11 world, the Indian leadership has found a conducive environment to associate the Kashmiri freedom movement with terrorism.  

Last but not least, India and some of its backers want to keep Pakistan destabilised at a time when the new government at home is trying to revive the economy and introduce reforms and clean the Augean stables. An escalation of tension between the two countries and mobilisation of troops even without a war remains a drain on the economy and discourages foreign and local investment. 

To make the situation for Pakistan even more fraught, some international players appear to be working in tandem at various levels to keep the country under pressure. For example, Pakistan fulfilled almost all the requirements set by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) aimed at stopping money-laundering and terror-financing to get the country’s name removed from the Grey List. But suddenly FATF had another prerequisite before this could happen: Pakistan would have to declare the source of financing of its nuclear and security programme, a precondition which wasn’t mentioned before. 

Therefore, continued tensions and the “no talks” posture with Pakistan fits in well with India’s Hindu extremist government’s game plan which, along with its international backers, want a pliant Pakistan.

Indians feel that they can get away with their genocidal policies in Occupied Jammu & Kashmir, put this core issue on the back-burner once for all, and engage Pakistan on their own terms as and when desired. 

Meanwhile, the Pakistani leadership – at least in public – appears to agree on one point. Not just many Pakistani analysts, but even government top-guns, including Prime Minister Imran Khan, have repeatedly said that Modi orchestrated tensions because of the looming elections in which the anti-Pakistan card sells in India’s cow-belt. 

Elections are certainly a factor prodding the Modi government to get tough on Pakistan, but they are not the only factor. The Indians have greater designs in the region, and the “no talks” mantra with Pakistan suits them and their backers.    

India as a hegemonic power is looking at ways to escalate tensions and create a new normal in the region where it can take unilateral military action against Pakistan in the name of self-defence against alleged terrorists. This is, of course, an unacceptable situation for Pakistan, which in round one fully demonstrated its capabilities and will, and denied India the chance to tilt the balance in its favour.

But going forward, Islamabad will have to perform a high-wire diplomatic act to avoid the escalation of tension with India, resist diplomatic pressure regarding its core national interests, including a stand on Kashmir and the nuclear programme, and ensure that its national security red line stays in place.

At the same time, the government has to ensure internal security at every cost. On this front, Pakistan has already achieved a lot as the country has, virtually single-handedly, turned the tide of terrorism and abolished the terrorists’ safe-havens. But the fight against extremism is still far from over. It needs to be taken to the next level in line with the 20-point National Action Plan, which was the result of a national consensus following the terrorist attack on the Army Public School Peshawar on December 16, 2014. The past government failed to empower and activate the National Counter Terrorism Authority, introduce reforms in the police and judiciary, effectively curb the extremist narrative, and defang some of the already banned organisations. 

This Pakistan has to do in its own national interest and in line with the policy that only the state, not non-state actors, has the authority to formulate the rules of engagement vis-à-vis terrorism and related activity. There is already a consensus on this issue within all the state institutions. But it is time to double these efforts to deny anti-Pakistan forces the propaganda space they enjoy because of various loopholes. 

In the latest crisis with India, the Pakistani leadership has displayed a great deal of sagacity, restraint and maturity to avoid a war. Now Prime Minister Imran Khan and his team have to stay the course and utilise the crisis to write a new set of rules in Pakistan’s favour.

ENDs