Imran Khan’s New Gamble

Former premier’s proposal to defer the appointment of the new army chief raises hopes of a breakthrough in the lingering stalemate, but insiders say the political tussle remains far from over

By Amir Zia

Sept. 18. 2022

Bol Weekly Newspaper

Former prime minister Imran Khan has created waves in the murky waters of Pakistani politics with his call for “deferring” the appointment of the new army chief until fresh elections are held, but senior officials of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) say the proposal does not mean that the party’s top leaders have established any formal contacts with the military establishment.
“There has been no official response either from Rawalpindi or Islamabad as to whether they have accepted or rejected this idea,” a close aide of Imran Khan told Bol News. “But they are under tremendous pressure because their strategy to bring economic and political stability in the country has totally failed.”
Imran Khan had said in an interview given to senior journalist Kamran Khan on Monday, 12 September, that the minority Shehbaz Sharif government which only has 85 seats of its own in the National Assembly should not appoint the new army chief, and that this important decision should be left to the new government.
However, a number of senior leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) have rejected Imran Khan’s proposal, saying the appointment of the new army chief remains a prerogative of the prime minister, whether or not Mr. Khan likes it.
The incumbent Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), General Qamar Javed Bajwa, is set to retire in November after completing his second three-year term in office. Imran Khan’s supporters say that this important appointment should be made by the new government rather than what they call the “corruption-tainted” politicians.
Imran Khan’s aide, who requested anonymity, said that his party wanted early elections in the country without resorting to any “conflict or bloodshed.”
“But there are serious moves to get Imran Khan disqualified,” he said. “Those in power must remember that when Nawaz Sharif was disqualified from holding public office, or when doors of domestic politics were slammed on Altaf Hussain, they both were among the most unpopular politicians. Here you have a leader who is already at the zenith of his popularity.”
Another senior PTI official said that Imran Khan had not proposed that General Bajwa be given another extension. “What he meant was that a status-quo should be maintained until the holding of the next elections. By doing this, Imran Khan has given a way out to the army to defuse political tensions and prevent any controversy for the new army chief if he is appointed by a compromised set of politicians.”
A senior army official, while explaining the process of the army chief’s appointment, said that there are important matters which cannot be deferred or put on hold because of politics.
“Appointment of the army chief is the prime minister’s responsibility. He can pick any Lieutenant General among the top four or five on the seniority list for this slot. It hardly matters whether he is selected by prime minister ‘A’ or prime minister ‘B’. The system should work as per the Constitution… there is a chain of appointments that follows once this decision is made.”
The PTI sources allege that the entire system is working to damage and erode the support-base of their party.
“They are targeting Imran Khan and trying to dismantle our party… there has been a multi-front assault on us. They tried to bring a change in the provincial government in Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa, but failed. Now the same effort is on in Punjab,” the PTI official said.
Imran Khan, too, has made the same allegations in his public meetings.
The PTI official also alleged that the PTI lawmakers and leaders are receiving threatening calls in which they are asked to change their loyalties.”
“The minus-one formula (minus Imran Khan) is on top of their agenda. The powers that be know that without Imran Khan, the PTI would collapse.”
Multiple PTI sources say that Imran Khan appears determined to give a final protest call sooner than later. “It will be done this month. There will be agitation.”
However, the former premier’s aide said that defusing political polarization should be on top of the agenda. “The government should be clear that eventually they will have to go for elections. The longer the government delays it, the more unpopular it is going to become because they are unable to manage the economy which is likely to worsen further in the days ahead. Therefore, early elections should also suit them.”
He said that the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) – comprising the PML-N, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and others – committed a blunder by shooting down the proposal of early elections by Prime Minister Imran Khan when it was conveyed to them through the COAS. “If elections were held at that time, the fight would have been even. But now it will be a landslide victory for the PTI.”
A senior PML-N leader and a close aide of Nawaz Sharif, who spoke on condition of anonymity, admitted that early elections remain the only way out of this simmering political and economic crisis.
“I am not saying that the economic mess would go away the moment elections are held. But a new elected government would come with a fresh mandate and would be in a better position to take long-term economic decisions, something this government can’t do,” he said.
Admitting that the PDM leadership made a mistake by forcing the no-confidence motion against Imran Khan in April this year, he said it had revived Mr. Khan’s politics and popularity.
“During a year between March 2021 and February 2022, the PTI won only one out of 13 seats to which by-elections were held. It also lost recent local bodies elections in Cantonment areas… as well as in the PTI-ruled KP province during the first phase. But now the tide has turned. One example is the NA-245 by-election in Karachi, where the government-backed candidate lost against the PTI with a huge margin despite support from the federal, provincial as well as the city governments. But irrespective of who wins or loses, Pakistan needs to go for elections. No government can deliver without having a complete five-year mandate,” the PML-N leader said.
Another PML-N leader, who hails from Karachi and enjoys close ties with Nawaz Sharif, said the current polarisation and divisions are dangerous for the state. “There is a division not just in society, but also within the institutions. The best solution would be that each institution works within its constitutional parameters. As far as Imran Khan is concerned, his brinkmanship won’t pay off as the contempt of court case is of a serious nature. He and his party would soon be history.” 
However, the PML-N leader quoted earlier differs with this view. “The Imran Khan phenomenon won’t go away by banning him from politics. He will be back on D-Chowk in case he is artificially ousted. Therefore, elections remain the only way forward.”