Captain’s no-ball

By Amir Zia
Bol News Oped
October 18, 2021  

If the past is any guide, the appointment of the DG ISI had always been a standard and straightforward affair. The Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) would send his recommendation to the Prime Minister, which got accepted without any ifs and buts. And why not? 

Prime Minister Imran Khan has delivered a ‘no-ball’ at the most crucial stage of his political innings and is likely to pay the price for this mega-slip. His mind boggling, needless and self-harming tiff with the mighty military establishment over the appointment of Director-General (DG) of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has thrown a spanner in an otherwise routine affair within the Pakistan Army. Since October 6 to-date, half of the high-level transfers and postings announced by the military high command remain on hold – a situation which had never occurred in the past. This unprecedented and bizarre controversy has also infused a new element of uncertainty in an already fragile and dysfunctional political system.

What the Prime Minister’s aides describe as a mere “technical glitch” in a bid to downplay the deadlock over the appointment of the new DG ISI has already resulted in a huge trust-deficit between civil and military leaders and blown away the perception – painstakingly build in recent years — of them being on the same-page.

Indeed, the Prime Minister’s rash and obstinate attitude has made Pakistan a laughing stock before the world – among friends and foes alike — and dragged the country’s most sensitive institution into the full public glare for all the wrong reasons. Even many of Imran Khan’s trusted aides realise that their Captain stands on the wrong side of the fence on this issue because of his fixation with an individual and insistence on changing rules of the game — defying both principle and logic. As the impasse drags on, the once harmonious relations between the two power-centres of the country have turned sore despite some hectic efforts by their common go-betweens to control the damage. Insiders on both sides of the fence acknowledge that chances of the Prime Minister being able to thrust his choice on the Army is starkly remote, and he is unlikely to get even a face-saving exit from this self-created controversy.

If the past is any guide, the appointment of the DG ISI had always been a standard and straightforward affair. The Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) would send his recommendation to the Prime Minister, which got accepted without any ifs and buts. And why not? Who would know better than the COAS himself where to place a three-star general? Earlier, during Imran Khan’s own term as Prime Minister, the last two DG ISI – Lt. General Asim Munir and Lt. General Faiz Hameed – were appointed in a similar fashion. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) made the announcement in the same manner as it announced the appointment of Lt. General Nadeem Anjum as the new DG ISI on October 6.

During the previous government of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), both Lt. General Rizwan Akhtar and Lt. General Naveed Mukhtar were also appointed as DG ISI the same way. The then Prime Minister did not ask for three names to select one out of them and none was called for an interview. The COAS’s decision was respected, even though technically DG ISI reports to the Prime Minister. Reporting to the civilian authority, however, doesn’t mean that the selection of the country’s spymaster has become the domain of the Prime Minister, who doesn’t have the required expertise and knowledge to take such a decision.

One should thank the Almighty that political interference had never been allowed in the Armed Forces, although some of our politicos always dreamt of treating them as they treated the Sindh or the Punjab Police in which almost every appointment gets made on the recommendation of this or that heavy or light weight lawmaker or minister.  

The storyline that some ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) cabinet members and Imran Khan’s loyalists initially tried to peddle that the Prime Minister does not want a change in the ISI’s command for the next few months because of the precarious situation in Afghanistan, does not hold any ground. Why? Because as an institution, the ISI always ensured continuity of policies and guarded the core national interests despite the routine changes in its leadership. This underlines the fact that institutions always remain bigger than any individual and it ought to be like that.

As DG ISI, Lt. General Faiz Hameed played an eventful innings. Many of his valuable services and initiatives for the country’s security and advancing the national goals as the top spymaster will never be known and one can only guess at a few of them. But that has been the proud tradition of this institution and its successive leaders. They all work in shadows.

General Faiz has now a new challenge, an assignment before him as Commander of the IX Corps responsible for Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’s security. The new DG ISI would draw strength from the institution just like his predecessors and business as usual will continue in Abpara, Islamabad where the spy agency is headquartered. The country’s most disciplined organisation of the Armed Forces will remain unruffled by the captain’s ‘no-ball.’

But following this so-called notification fiasco, Pakistan’s civil and military leadership must now make concerted efforts to ensure that the country’s premier spy-agency and its leadership must be kept out of all such controversies, and away from the public radar as much as possible. Pushing the ISI and its top official in the limelight should always be a big no under all circumstances. The strength and effectiveness of spy work lies in anonymity. Even its top boss – the public face of the agency – must be kept away from the media glare.

At the same time, it is a moment of reckoning for Prime Minister Imran Khan and his aides. They need to ponder over the fallout of this self-created, unnecessary controversy. What did they gain out of it and what did they lose? The advisable course would be to focus on the damage control – which should start immediately. Taking a step back by the Prime Minister would be a small beginning in this direction. The sooner the suspense ends over DG ISI’s appointment, and the matter gets resolved, the better it is for the government, the system, and the country.

The takeaway lesson: No one should try to dictate to institutions on personal whims and wishes. This weakens the system and results in confrontation among institutions which Pakistan can ill-afford at this critical juncture.

Prime Minister Imran Khan’s besieged government already has many fronts to worry about, including the country’s lingering economic woes, the derailed accountability process, strained relations with the United States, and confrontation with India over the occupied Kashmir, a volatile Afghanistan on the west… the list can go on and on. Therefore, this is not the time, Mr. Prime Minister, to lock horns with the institution that has remained supportive to your house of cards all through. Rather, the civil and military leadership should work in tandem to pull the country out of the crisis. Therefore, remaining on the same page is vital.

The skipper should refrain from throwing any more “no-balls” as his quota of bad political deliveries has already been exhausted. He should rather work to restore trust among institutions and deliver on at least some of his election promises in the remaining two years of his term rather than picking up avoidable battles.

The writer is Editor-in-Chief, Bol Media Group

 

Dangerous Brinkmanship

By Amir Zia

Monthly Narratives

October 2017

The greater onus of saving the system lies with the PML-N leadership which has to act minus the Sharifs. This is the only way to ensure the continuity of the system and ensure improvement through reforms.

Nawaz Sharif is out of the Prime Minister House, but the dark shadow cast by his politics keeps Pakistan seething in a cauldron of uncertainty. In fact, the Sharif factor has now become the biggest cause of continuing instability, conflict and discord in the land of the pure.

The deepening polarisation in Pakistani politics is not a mere conventional power tussle between rival forces. The crisis is graver and, if not resolved swiftly, threatens the entire system.

The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has abused and coerced Parliament into rewriting the rules of the game in a bid to whitewash the corruption and crimes of its leader and family, deliberately pitting institution versus institution.

But this is not the first time in our chequered history that a powerful, political dynasty is trying to take on the institutions and seeking to place itself above the law. Sharif, the patriarch of this dynasty, has walked this self-defeating path twice in the past. But the major difference this time around is that the political stalemate has been prolonged. This is hampering the normal functioning of the government, given that neither side has been able to emerge as a clear winner, nor has been successful in breaking the impasse to keep the system working.

De-facto Premier

The Supreme Court disqualified Sharif from holding public office, but the ousted premier continues to keep his grip on power, operating as the de-facto prime minister.

There is no doubt that he has conceded a lot of ground and the Panama papers scandal grossly tarnished his image. Yet in the initial months following his ignominious ousting, Sharif somehow managed to keep the ruling party intact.

There have been voices of dissent and calls for self-criticism within the party by old-guards like Chaudhary Nisar Ali Khan, the former interior minister, but has far as the optics are concerned the party stays united.

On one hand, this signifies some deft handling of the situation by Sharif and his loyalists. But on the other, it demonstrates that the ‘powers,’ which allegedly want to see the last of him, are either not out for the kill and want the system to continue – at least for now – or feel that they lack the capacity to face the ensuing consequences once they upset the applecart.

    This has provided time and space for Sharif to dig in his heels deeper and launch a counter-offensive in which the judiciary and the army remain the primary targets for allegedly hatching a conspiracy against him.

The PML-N government is bending and changing laws through its Parliamentary majority to benefit Sharif and using executive power to the hilt to control, influence and direct the investigation agencies, in a bid to blunt the judicial process against him on the charges of corruption. He has already been re-elected as the chief of his own faction of the party as a result of an amendment bulldozed in the Parliament, though constitutional experts say that it stands in conflict with the spirit of the constitution which bars a disqualified person from holding any public office. The same yardstick also applied on the political parties and their heads – but not anymore.

Sharif’s objectives

Sharif’s objectives are not just to win back lost space, redeem his name and restore honour, but to weaken the institutions he thinks are responsible for his fall from grace and dismissal from the halls of power.

Clearly, this goal cannot be achieved without weakening and defeating these institutions by hook or by crook. This primary objective is also shared by the traditional anti-army forces within the country, as well as hostile regional and foreign powers, with India leading the pack. Should there be any doubt about the covert and overt support of these domestic and foreign forces for Sharif to move towards this goal?

Sharif and his camp followers, who have a bitter history of confrontation with institutions, see the army as the main obstacle in the implementation of their design of building ties with India at the cost of the core Kashmir dispute. They also realise that these very institutions – the judiciary and the army – stand between them and the attainment of their goal of establishing dynastic rule in the garb of democracy.

Pakistan’s dysfunctional and skewed parliamentary system allows them to strive for this goal by manipulating and dominating the politics of just one province – the heavily populated Punjab – where the Sharif dynasty has solidly entrenched itself, especially in central Punjab.

No wonder then, that the PML-N’s anti-army tirade not just echoes the charges made by local and foreign anti-Pakistan forces, but also seems to be in tandem with them, as they all try to build a narrative that holds Pakistani institutions responsible for fanning regional and global terrorism. They also accuse the army of preventing Pakistan from cooperating and building ties with India and Afghanistan.

This explains why the erstwhile Sharif government did not fight Pakistan’s case at international forums when he was the prime minister. And after his ouster, Pakistan’s first foreign minister in four years – Khawaja Asif – presented a point-of-view that is basically an acknowledgment of the charges levelled by the hostile powers.

The foreign minister’s statement that Pakistan needs to put its house in order is in stark contrast to the policy articulated by Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa on Sept 6 – Pakistan Defence Day – in which he asked the world to do more in counter-terrorism efforts. General Bajwa also stated that world powers should not blame Pakistan for their policy failures in Afghanistan.

Impact of brinkmanship    

Despite all the short-comings, weaknesses, flaws and the anti-people character of the current elected order, so far there is a broad institutional and political consensus that it should be allowed to continue.

The armed forces want to stay away from directly interfering in politics and are operating on the premise that the democracy will self-correct over time and deliver on its promise to improve the lives of the people and stabilise the country’s internal and external security issues.

However, while State institutions support the continuity of the system, there are certain red lines and core national interests, which are uncompromisingly guarded. This includes the country’s stance on the protracted Kashmir dispute, its nuclear programme – vital for the country’s overall security – and ensuring the unity of the state. On all these fronts, the Pakistan Armed Forces remain the lynchpin of the national security paradigm.

However, while State institutions support the continuity of the system, there are certain red lines and core national interests, which are uncompromisingly guarded

As Sharif and his followers up the ante against institutions in tandem with the hostile foreign and local powers, the institutional leadership, which has hitherto maintained a stance of neutrality throughout the turbulent days around the Panama Papers investigation and judicial proceedings, as well as during the prolonged opposition sit-in and protests during 2014, would be forced to take a position.

The expectations of the masses in times of crisis, especially from the Armed Forces and the institutional pressure from within, may force their leadership to act to end the continuing instability and protracted stalemate.

While many analysts and political players believe that Sharif himself wants to push the institutions to take this extreme step so that he can become a ‘political martyr,’ the former prime minister seems to be aware of the fact that the military leadership – since the tenures of General (Retd) Pervez Ashfaque Kayani to that of General (Retd) Raheel Sharif – the most popular army chiefs in Pakistan’s recent history – to the current General Bajwa, have been loyal in their pledge of upholding the Constitution.

Similarly, the judiciary has also come a long way from the activist days of former Chief Justice (Retd) Iftikhar Chaudhary and is acting with extreme caution and restraint, as evident from its handling of the Panama Papers case, in which the Sharif family was provided every possible chance to clear their names.

That is the reason Sharif is attacking the judiciary and the army at will, without any fear of retaliation. But the internal policy of institutional restraint has already been tested to its limits. When push comes to shove, institutions would be forced to act – albeit reluctantly – in the larger national interest. This, of course, is not their preferred choice, nor is it the desire of the political players sitting on the government or opposition benches, other than the flailing Nawaz Sharif and his inner coterie. The applecart will only be disturbed when no other option is left on the table, but the time for a solution is running out fast given Sharif’s brinkmanship and politics of confrontation.

Warding off the crisis

In their own interest, PML-N stalwarts, including Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, must distance themselves from Sharif’s confrontational policies and help the Accountability Courts hold his free, fair and transparent trial.

Attempts by the PML-N government to enact personality-specific laws – as was done to make Sharif the head of PML-N again – will only intensify the conflict and force political and institutional players to act aggressively and with greater determination.

Sharif has been disqualified on legal grounds by the apex court. The institutions have shown that they are only interested in reforms and holding the corrupt accountable rather than wrapping up the system. And of course, they won’t allow Sharif back in the saddle, after a short span, given his involvement in corruption and a mindset fixated on confrontation and settling scores.

The only way Sharif can win back the lost ground is by knocking down, damaging and defeating the institutions with support from like-minded local and foreign players. That cannot happen without harming Pakistan.

Will all PML-N leaders, as well as the rank and file of the party, collaborate in the mission to ‘destroy Pakistan?’ This is the one thing that one does not expect from a centre-right party like the PML-N.

The greater onus of saving the system lies with the PML-N leadership which has to act minus the Sharifs. This is the only way to ensure the continuity of the system and ensure improvement through reforms.

The institutions will only take the extreme step if they are forced to the edge by the provocative policies and statements emanating from Sharif and his bandwagon. Will the ruling party be able to shed the millstone dragging the system down? So far, Sharif seems to be having his way by putting the entire system at stake as the PML-N stalwarts dance to his tune.

Pakistan’s New Friends

By Amir  Zia
March 10, 2014
The News

The time for taking a decision on fighting the twin spectre of terrorism and religious extremism was yesterday, but our rulers seem to be waiting for a tomorrow that will never come
 
A clear majority of the local Taliban fighters are ‘not the enemies of Pakistan.’ This ‘good news’ was shared by Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan on the floor of the National Assembly on March 6 as the government announced direct talks with the Mullah Fazlullah-led outlawed group.
Wow! This was one official statement the nation has been waiting to hear from a government stalwart. Going by the logic of the interior minister’s statement, if the Taliban are not enemies of Pakistan then they must be friends.
Should this priceless disclosure lift the spirits of this beleaguered nation and give comfort that the country remained a victim of friendly acts of terrorism all these years? Should it give clarity and confidence to our soldiers, policemen and all the security personnel that so far they have been fighting not with the enemies of the state? And if yes, then does it mean that they had been sacrificing their lives in vain.
If the interior minister is to be believed then the beheading of our soldiers by the Taliban should also be taken as an act of friendship. So should be their ghastly game of kicking around the heads of our martyrs. The attacks on the military headquarters and other defence installations – from Karachi to Peshawar – were also not carried out by the enemies of Pakistan. The interior minister believes that the Taliban are ‘not anti-Pakistan’. Then should we say that the pro-Pakistan Taliban executed all the bombings and suicide attacks, killing thousands of men, women and children? If this is not Orwellian double talk, then how else can it be described? 
The next best thing our interior minister can do now is bestow a certificate of patriotism to these Al-Qaeda inspired militants, who openly declare the armed forces as their number one enemy and never hide their intention that they want to dismantle the state called Pakistan. 
Our elected government continues to live in a state of self-denial. Many of its misfiring big guns, from the interior minister to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, continue to give confusing signals about the nature and scope of the challenge Pakistan faces from within. And by doing this they are giving legitimacy to all the shadowy bands of non-state warriors whom we usually lump together under the common and simplistic definition of the Taliban. They are strengthening the internal enemy and damaging Pakistan.
Today these protectors and defenders of militants are entrenched in the echelons of civilian power structure, in the media and in the mainstream religious parties. They twist facts, tell half truths and even blatant lies in their zeal to shield terrorists and avoid doing what the nation expects them to do: defend Pakistan, its people and help establish the writ of the state. 
But political expediency, narrow self interest and lack of moral and intellectual courage never allows them to call a spade a spade. Instead, they give us mumbo-jumbo of all sorts of conspiracy theories including that some foreign hand is fomenting these acts of terrorism. No wonder many Pakistanis are disillusioned and depressed with the democratic setup as they see no ray of hope at the end of the tunnel. The plight of Pakistan is manifested through all the disorder and lawlessness that we see around us, the crumbling of its institutions and the erosion of the state authority. 
The interior minister has taken the dark comedy played in the name of peace talks too far. His statements – such as the one on March 6 – indeed seem like a cruel joke. By declaring the majority of the Taliban as friends, he has ridiculed and insulted all civilian and armed forces martyrs and their families and friends.
And this was not the first time that Chaudhry Nisar came out on the floor of the house to defend the Taliban. He has done this on countless occasions both inside and outside parliament with conviction and passion. When a US drone strike killed the former Taliban chief, Hakeemullah Mehsud last November, our interior minister’s display of grief and emotions rattled even many of the treasury members – not because of his melodramatic performance, but because they could see the fallout of his sayings on the country. His brash statements and soft corner for militants expose his political acumen and underline his insensitivity towards all those who died, wounded or lost their near and dear ones by terrorists.
Seen as the main architect of the policy of peace talks with militants, Chaudhry Nisar is defining and articulating it on behalf of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. And the way the interior minister is doing his job, he is putting the entire system at stake. 
This government will be remembered for giving legitimacy to a ragtag band of terrorists and bringing their narrative into the mainstream. This decision to appease and hold talks with militants has been taken and owned by a coterie of friends and families of the prime minister. Even the input of all the treasury and cabinet members was not taken while deciding to extend an olive branch to the enemies of the state.
The voice of smaller provinces articulated by the Pakistan People’s Party, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, the Awami National Party, and the Baloch nationalists is also being ignored. The concerns of the civil society and the armed forces on treading this dangerous course are also not being taken into account. 
The Sharif government let the foreign and local militants off the hook when the Pakistani armed forces had put them on the mat through successful airstrikes following a spate of recent terror assaults. The Taliban have warded off the pressure by announcing the ceasefire and retaining their capacity to fight another day. They managed to buy crucial time when the last days of winter restrict their fighters’ movement. They have again been able to give centrality to those issues that should be non-negotiable – supremacy of the constitution and state’s undisputed writ on its territory. They offered the bait and the Sharif government fell for it hook, line and sinker.
With rulers such as Sharif, does Pakistan need ‘a foreign hand’ to destabilise it?
Now our civilian masters want the Pakistan Army to be part of the farcical dialogue process and take the brunt of their follies that threatens Pakistan. Mercifully the indications are that the army is not in a mood to oblige and has declined to jump into the pit where Sharif and his key team members have placed themselves.
Trying to push the armed forces directly into talks with the Taliban is indeed a trap for the country’s last line of defence. The peace deals brokered with militants during the former military-led government are not justified examples when the country is run by an elected government. Today, the civilians should take responsibility of all such actions with the past knowledge that all those deals were violated by none other than the militants. 
The onus of imposing this internal war rest solely on these Al-Qaeda linked militants. The state institutions remain justified in trying to stop the use of Pakistani territory as a safe haven for global and local terrorists and fomenting violence and terrorism around the world.
The days ahead are indeed tough for the country as the US/Nato troops start their drawdown from Afghanistan. This will embolden the militants and allow them freer movement on both sides of the Durand Line. Another round of internal strife and war stares at Pakistan, but this time it will be messier and bloodier. Unfortunately for us, there is no courageous and visionary civilian leadership in sight that can steer the country out of this minefield.
The time is running out fast. The indecision and policy of appeasement is costing the country dearly. The time for taking a decision on fighting the twin spectre of terrorism and religious extremism was yesterday, but our rulers seem to be waiting for a tomorrow that will never come. Are there any saviours who can stand up and fight for Pakistan? The nation awaits a miracle.