The Reluctant Ally: How Trump’s potential travel ban will affect US-Pakistan relationship

My article for TRT Global, March 11, 2025

 https://trt.global/world/article/571cb83dadd5

The reluctant ally: How Trump’s potential travel ban will affect US-Pakistan relationship

The Trump team includes many known pro-India and Indian-origin faces, who are openly hawkish on Pakistan and its all-weather ally, China.

By Amir Zia

Many Pakistanis wait with bated breath for the Trump administration to announce its new travel ban list that may or may not include their country among those whose citizens would be barred from coming to the United States.

There is nothing official yet, but a Reuters story, dated March 5, quoted three anonymous sources saying that along with Afghanistan, Pakistan “would” also be recommended for inclusion on the travel ban list. Several other Muslim-majority countries could also be on the list, but their names were not disclosed.

The story came as a rude shock to Pakistan, especially its government, ruling elite, and well-to-do citizens. After all, Pakistan has a history of working closely with the United States, and its English-speaking elite has always been overwhelmingly pro-West.

Going to America for education, work, setting up businesses, buying assets and eventually settling there has remained a dream of many educated, professional and well-heeled Pakistanis as the United States never shut its doors on Pakistan completely. Despite many ups and downs in relations, the security establishments of the two countries usually maintained close contact.

The travel ban story was all the more surprising for Pakistanis as only a day before, President Donald Trump in his first address to the joint Congress session on March 4, thanked Pakistan for the arrest of a Daesh-K terrorist kingpin.

On the CIA’s tip, Pakistani authorities tracked and arrested Mohammed Sharifullah alias Jafar from the southwestern Balochistan province near its Afghan frontier and handed him over to the Americans.

Among many others, Jafar also stands accused of masterminding the deadly terrorist strike at Kabul Airport on August 26, 2021 that killed 13 US soldiers and 170 Afghans.

Trumpian thanks

The Shehbaz Sharif government was still basking in the glow of “Trumpian thanks” and news channels still playing up the news when the possibility of the inclusion of Pakistan to the travel ban list dawned on them.

But according to two former Pakistani diplomats, there was no need for over-excitement on Trump’s note of thanks. The Reuters story should also be seen with caution, they say.

“I don’t have any credible information about this (travel ban), barring the Reuters story,” Sherry Rehman, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United States, told this scribe. “I don’t think it is possible. It would be a surprise if this happens… In my view there won’t be any blanket ban on Pakistan.”

Masood Khan, another former senior diplomat who served in the United States as Pakistan’s ambassador, said that after reading the Reuters story, he prayed that this should not happen. “It would be a very negative decision and would have a negative fallout.”  

Pakistan holds its relationship with Washington crucial. The United States is not just the country’s biggest export-destination but its support is vital for Islamabad in dealing with multilateral financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Pakistan’s ongoing IMF programme would not have been possible without Washington’s support.

Yet, Pakistan’s relations with the United States have a history of going from one extreme to the other. From once being part of the anti-communist alliances of CENTO and SEATO, and dubbed as the most allied ally to the most sanctioned and bombed one, Pakistan has seen it all.

Pakistan partnered with the United States during the Cold War and resisted the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and then again sided with Washington in the so-called war against terrorism in that land-locked country following the 9/11 terrorist strikes on US soil.

Following the withdrawal of the US-led NATO forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, Pakistan apparently lost importance for Washington.

A test for Pakistan

All through President Joe Biden’s term, relations between the two countries remained mostly cold despite occasional instances of cooperation that included Pakistan’s help during the withdrawal of the US-led NATO forces from Afghanistan. 

However, towards the fag-end of its term, the Biden administration slapped sanctions on three Pakistani companies, including a state-run entity, for assisting in the country’s missile programme.

To Pakistan’s surprise, the Americans declared its long-range missile programme a threat to the United States, although all of Islamabad’s defence preparations are directed towards one adversary: India.

That was the reason that a “thank you” from President Trump meant a lot for the Shehbaz government.

The second reason for the Shehbaz government to enthusiastically welcome Trump’s gesture has more to do with its symbolism for domestic politics.

The Shehbaz government faces bitter opposition from many influential Pakistani Americans who are upset over the jailing of former premier Imran Khan, who remains a popular figure in Pakistani politics.

Pro-Imran Khan Pakistanis, both in the country and abroad, expect Trump to use his good offices for his release and have been actively lobbying for this.

However, Pakistan’s challenge of maintaining smooth relations with the United States is far bigger and graver than to be interpreted by a mere thank you or even if Pakistan’s name does not appear on the US travel ban list.

There are many more serious points of divergence of interests between the two countries than convergence. Pakistani diplomats admit that their country’s bandwidth of relations with Washington has squeezed tremendously following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Apart from old challenges in relations between the two countries, including US concerns regarding Pakistan’s missile and nuclear programmes, its close strategic ties with China, and Islamabad’s festering relations with arch-rival India, which is now a strategic partner of the United States, the Trumpian era could throw surprises at Islamabad.   

Under the Trump presidency, the pressure can suddenly mount on Pakistan because of his unconventional and aggressive style of diplomacy on any of the old issues or a new one that the United States deems to address. Currently, Pakistan may be a low priority of the United States, but this can change dramatically if the US president decides to focus on Pakistan in particular or South Asia in general, at any given time.  

Therefore, the Trumpian era is likely to test Pakistan’s diplomacy to the hilt.  

Pro-India, anti-Pakistan

A new factor that intensifies Pakistan’s US challenge is the fact that the Trump team includes many known pro-India and Indian-origin faces who hold top positions. Some of these team members are openly hawkish on Pakistan and its all-weather ally, China.

For example, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and CIA Director John Ratcliffe – are all anti-China hawks. Pakistan is likely to face more pressure from Washington on the scope of its partnership with China on the diplomatic chessboard.

In the past, while Rubio proposed an anti-Pakistan and pro-India bill in the Senate, Waltz - a military veteran - had pushed for intensifying pressure on Pakistan to curb the alleged cross-border terrorism – a line in sync with the Indian position.   

Among the opening shots of Ratcliffe as the new CIA director was to exert pressure on Pakistan which led to the arrest of Sharifullah.  

Tulsi Gabbard, director of the National Intelligence that manages the 18 US intelligence organisations, is the first Hindu to serve in Congress and seen as a pro-India hawk. She has no ancestral connection with India, but enjoys close ties with its Hindu nationalists. Gabbard’s Indiana-born mother converted to Hinduism and gave her children Hindu names. 

Gabbard had been critical of Pakistan during its military standoff with India in 2019.    

Then, there are several other Indian-Americans holding important positions in the Trump team – from Kash Petal as FBI director to Ricky Gill serving as senior director for South and Central Asia at the National Security Council. They also include Kush Desai, deputy press secretary in the White House, and Saurab Sharma in the Presidential Personnel Office, indicating that the 4.5 million-strong Indian diaspora is a strongly represented minority in the new Trump administration.  

This strong presence of Indian-Americans in the US power corridors is the newest challenge for Pakistan in its relations with the United States.

How Pakistan, with its diminishing influence and mounting hurdles, will make its voice heard in Washington remains to be seen.  

For this, probably the Shehbaz government needs to connect with the Pakistani diaspora in the West and bring political stability at home to fight the country’s case effectively on the world stage.

Ends

 

The Hour of the General

By Amir Zia
November 27, 2022
Bol News

More than his epaulets, the new army chief will be carrying the weight of Pakistan on his shoulders

General Asim Munir will take command of the Pakistan Army as its eleventh Chief of Army Staff (COAS) on Tuesday, November 29, amid high expectations that he will act swiftly to pull the country out of the lingering political crisis it is embroiled in, which is having a crippling effect on the economy of the world’s lone Muslim nuclear power.

The burden of expectations on the COAS-designate is huge. On one hand, General Munir will have to manage the traditional internal and external security challenges facing the country, and on the other, he will need to address the domestic political logjam and growing polarisation on a war-footing. The increasing political instability is now seen as posing an existential threat to the country that might even deny the new COAS the traditional settling-in ‘honeymoon’ period. He will be expected to get into the thick of action from day one, regardless of the outgoing Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa’s declaration of the Pak Army’s decision to remain apolitical since February this year.

With the former premier, Imran Khan, now out on the roads with tens of thousands of supporters  demanding early elections in the country, and the Shehbaz Sharif government determined to cling to power despite its growing unpopularity, the politicians have proved once again that they are unable to settle their differences on their own — inside or outside Parliament. Against this backdrop, there is a growing realisation in all segments of society that the system is crumbling. And this is why many eyes are looking towards the GHQ, expecting it to play its traditional role of ensuring stability in the country.

“General Asim Munir won’t be able to remain apolitical – whether he likes it or not,” said Huma Baqai, a prominent analyst and political commentator. “He will have to apply unconventional methods to end this dangerous political polarisation and confrontation, which Pakistan can ill-afford…the new army chief will have to play the role of a bridge either covertly or overtly.”

Other analysts lay the blame for the current state of affairs squarely on the military’s doorstep. They contend that the country became a victim of political instability since the Pakistan Army, under the command of General Qamar Javed Bajwa, announced its policy of being “neutral and apolitical.” Even in his last public speech, General Bajwa asserted this position, which appears unpopular among many Pakistanis, who have always looked towards the Pakistan Army in every moment of crisis. Indeed, for a vast majority of Pakistanis, the army has remained a stabilising force. But this image has taken a hit by the way traditional political dynasties with a horrendous record of corruption and misrule have been allowed to return to power.

For Lt. General (Retired) Ghulam Mustafa, the one silver lining in these tough times is that the appointments of both, the COAS, General Asim Munir, and the Chairman Joint Chief of Staff Committee, General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, have been endorsed by all the political parties and generally welcomed by the people.

“This gives them the moral authority to help defuse the political crisis,” said General Mustafa. “There are huge expectations from the new army chief about playing a role in sorting out this political mess and ensuring that the system continues to work. These are the expectations harbored by the people and the military rank and file. This political crisis is compounding the country’s economic crisis.”

Lt. Gen. (Retired) Naeem Khalid Lodhi also highlighted the expectations of the masses from the new army chief. “People are expecting him to help bridge the political gulf and ensure that all political parties are treated equally. He should play his role in defusing the political tension and make the politicians sit across the table. This would be taking a positive role. It cannot be construed as political interference,” he stated.

Baqai echoed the same line of thinking saying that when politicians fail to find a political solution, others have to act and find one. She maintained, “The new chief will have to demonstrate that he is engaged on behalf of the state and not for the government. This symbolism is vital… he has to operate in a way that he wins the trust of both the political camps.”

Since the ouster of the Imran Khan government in April this year, even many erstwhile die-hard supporters of the Pakistan Army have been criticising the institution, saying that its neutrality and silence helped the most corrupt political dynasties’ return to power.

The anti-corruption narrative was once the bedrock of the Pakistan Army and General Bajwa himself pushed it in his initial years as the COAS.

Analysts say that the new chief will have to work hard to dispel the perception that the Pakistan Army has now become the protector of the corrupt in any way.

General Mustafa said that the public image of the Pakistan Army needs to be restored. “The bond between the people and the barracks and the military rank-and-file with its leadership is vital,” he contended.

Javed Jabbar, Information Minister during the days of General Pervez Musharraf, however, demurred. According to him, the army chief should have no role in ending the country’s political logjam. “It is the responsibility of the politicians … they should stop looking at the military for solutions, and instead take this responsibility upon themselves. The onus lies on them.”

Jabbar added that the new COAS is a highly-rated and acknowledged officer, who has won the sword of honour. “Hopefully in this position, he will review the role of the army and go for a comprehensive disengagement in the civilian domain.”

But the polarised domestic political front is only one of the many pressing challenges which are on the new COAS’ plate.

According to Gen Lodhi, the Shehbaz government does not know or comprehend the new kind of war that has been unleashed against Pakistan. “The TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) is once again carrying out terrorist attacks on our soil, there is trouble in Balochistan, while the Indian generals are threatening Pakistan on a daily basis. Pakistan needs to refocus on the war against terrorism and reassert its position in region,” Gen. Lodhi asserted. “There is also a need to take hold of foreign policy which appears directionless. Relations with China are of prime importance and need to be rejuvenated … And besides the important task of rebuilding the army’s image and review of the security matrix, the new COAS must review the military system to make it affordable, yet maintain its strategic deterrence and operational efficacy in this time of economic crunch.”

General Ghulam Mustafa agreed that foreign relations would also be a front requiring some deft handling by the new COAS. “The national sentiment about Kashmir has to be taken into account… The challenge emanating from India has to be addressed. The new COAS has to give the people confidence that Pakistan is fully capable of countering the Indian threat.”

He, too, asserted that since relations with China appear to be “cooling-off,” they must be revitalised. Similarly, he said, the Afghan Taliban need to be reengaged out of the public glare to secure the western frontiers. The General however, acknowledged that the economic meltdown is the gravest challenge and even the rank and file of the armed forces are affected by the current record inflation.

Baqai spoke of the spate of anti-army propaganda witnessed in recent months. “The new military leadership will have to work hard to address this challenge and restore the image of its institution,” she maintained.

Given the need for a drastic course correction, Pakistanis now fervently hope the new military leadership will act in line with their traditional role and with the aspirations of the people, rather than be seen helping restore the discredited politicians of the 1990s in 21st Century Pakistan.

https://www.bolnews.com/newspaper/national-nerve/2022/11/the-hour-of-the-general/

Ends

Editorial Ominous Times

Bol Weekly Newspaper
Sept. 18, 2022

The task of putting the house in order starts by bringing in a strong and stable government which enjoys the trust of the masses. This can only be done by calling snap-elections. Those who want this Parliament – with an incomplete National Assembly – to complete its term, want Pakistan to implode from within.

Pakistan remains in the grip of intense political confrontation, instability and uncertainty since the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) announced bringing a no-confidence motion against the then premier Imran Khan in February this year. After all the palace intrigues and buying and selling of lawmakers, finally the vote of no-confidence took place on April 10, which paved the way for Shehbaz Sharif to become Prime Minister in a highly controversial manner. But since then, the political polarisation has only intensified.

Those analysts do not exaggerate when they say that these are the most testing times for the country since 1970-71. Those sharp divisions of led to the East Pakistan debacle against the backdrop of a massive cyclone there. Today, the signs are equally ominous as the divide and confrontation is not just restricted between the political rivals – the PDM versus Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), but it has seeped into the very core of our civil society and institutions.
In the 1970s, if the core of the problem was the power and economic imbalance between the Eastern and Western wings of Pakistan, today the political division and discord is over whether the country should again be handed over to the corruption-tainted political dynasties through a dubious and flawed process in the name of democracy and parliament.
Attached to this question are other fundamental issues that include reforming this non-performing parliamentary system, which is elitist in nature and deny people belonging to the middle and the lower-middle classes, and workers and peasants a representation in the law and decision-making process. The tried, tested and failed system allows politicians to run political parties like their personal or family fiefdoms, and condones and encourages corruption, nepotism and the elite capture of the national resources. The 18th amendment, which has allowed provinces to function as states within a state, and the flawed distribution formula of the national resources in which the centre remains responsible for all the responsibilities, but without any money, has made Pakistan unsustainable. Against this backdrop, Imran Khan’s call for the creation of smaller provinces, accountability of the corrupt and sweeping political and economic reforms backed by an independent foreign policy makes sense. Whether his own party, the PTI, has the capacity and ability to make this happen is a separate discussion.
The crux of the matter is that Pakistan under the current form appears to be getting weaker, and more and more unmanageable and ungovernable with each passing day. The situation has become even more complicated because of one of the worst natural calamities that has befallen Pakistan in the form of devastating floods. This has aggravated Pakistan’s already precarious economic situation. There is a need to put an immediate halt to this non-stop steep deterioration.
But the question remains where to start? An unpopular, controversial coalition government, which itself is mired with unresolvable internal contradictions, is unable to give any direction and pull the country out of this political and economic quagmire. The past five months are a living proof of how the Shehbaz Sharif government has failed the country on every front, particularly the economy. Inflation is hovering at more than 27 percent – a 49 year high. The rupee is taking a beating against the dollar every day. Economic activity had slowed down even before the floods hit the country. The body language of the government stalwarts – from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to Finance Minister Miftah Ismail – is defeatist as they fail to convince the big businesses and corporates to bet on Pakistan.
The task of putting the house in order starts by bringing in a strong and stable government which enjoys the trust of the masses. This can only be done by calling snap-elections. Those who want this Parliament – with an incomplete National Assembly – to complete its term, want Pakistan to implode from within. They just want to serve their personal agenda and narrow political interests. A country of more than 220 million people cannot be allowed to ruin itself on the whims and fancies of a handful of individuals or political dynasties.
The state institutions – particularly the Pakistan Army and the judiciary – must act before it is too late for the country. They should facilitate the installation of an independent caretaker setup with a clear roadmap for the next general elections. Anything short of that and any delays would only damage Pakistan. Desperate times call for desperate measures.