Analysis: Attack and After

By Amir Zia
The News On Sunday
May 29, 2011

The dominant narrative following the terror assault on Mehran airbase in Karachi is that of an audacious denial in accepting the reality of terrorism in the country

Naval Chief Admiral Nauman Bashir denies that there has been a major security breach at the airbase, where a small band of terrorists destroyed two multi-million dollar P-3C Orion surveillance aircrafts and killed 10 security officials in an 18-hour long standoff.
Many of Pakistan’s leading analysts, politicians and opinion-makers remain convinced that “an unholy nexus” of Indian, Israeli and US intelligence agencies masterminded and sponsored this brazen attack to undermine the country’s armed forces and raise questions about the security of its coveted nuclear arsenal. They deny that any Islamic radical group linked to the Taliban, al-Qaeda or its local or foreign allies could have carried out this assault. The closest few of them could get to blame these forces is when they, as a matter of faith, say that some foreign intelligence agency penetrated and used Islamic militants against Pakistan.
As the atmosphere remains thick with weird conspiracy theories, aired primarily through television news channels, Pakistan appears to be living in this state of denial despite losing more than 30,000 civilians and 5,000 security personnel in the decade-long campaign of terrorism and violence unleashed by al-Qaeda and its local allies of all shades and colours.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has already claimed responsibility of the Mehran base attack, but a vast number of conspiracy theorists, in their anti-US and anti-West zeal, conveniently ignore this fact -- as they always do in such cases -- and are trying to find a foreign hand in this incident too.
However, closing one’s eyes does not change the ground reality and the fact that the biggest threat to Pakistan security is from within. With the May 2 killing of terror mastermind Osama bin Laden by the US forces in Abbottabad, the terrorists have one more reason to intensify their war on Pakistan.
The Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) led government struggles to keep its direction and focus toward the elusive enemy on the ideological plane, but besieged by scandals and political opposition, it has failed to galvanise and effectively lead the public opinion against extremists, who have loads of direct and indirect defenders among the legal religious and political parties. It is ironic that many of these politicians see Islamabad’s cooperation with the international community against the global terror network as a problem rather than terrorism and extremism, which finds a perfect breeding ground on our soil.
The sharp ideological chasm, indeed, affects the country’s resolve and capabilities in taking on terrorists, who appear to be going for hard and strategic military targets now. The assault on Mehran airbase appears as a watershed as it is for the first time that operational assets -- P-3C Orion -- and not the men remained the real target. In a way, this attack holds bigger symbolic value than the October 2009 assault on the army headquarters because Mehran base serves in the frontline of the country’s conventional defense system.
Pakistani armed forces, which scored huge successes against militants, in their operations in parts of tribal areas and Swat, for the first time appears at the receiving end. Yes, never before, Pakistan’s mighty security apparatus appeared so ill-prepared, directionless and lethargic in confronting the internal security challenges as it has appeared in the recent months. It is the terrorists, who have the initiative rather than Pakistani armed forces.
Interior Minister Rehman Malik and other officials have been underlining the point that terrorists, who attacked the naval base, were trained and motivated. But this raises the question how prepared and trained are we in combating them?
The terrorists, indeed, have a huge advantage of not just element of surprise but also of selecting their turf for an action. Like any guerrilla group, they hide when hunted and strike when least expected. They also have the advantage of melting away in the civilian population. This is a nightmare situation for any army, especially if it is operating on the home front and remains unable to take those excessive measures, which stand justified during full-blown conflicts in the enemy territory.
Although Pakistani armed forces have been locked in this war on terror for a decade now, their grooming and training has been largely done for conventional warfare and that too mainly for the eastern front. The problem compounds given the fact that within the armed forces there are elements which once used the Islamic militants as proxies. The mindset that these shadowy groups could again prove an asset has not entirely changed.
One big challenge for the military leaders of today is how to readjust and reorient the training of their men that they get prepared to deal with home-grown ideological foes that includes the Taliban and other banned terrorist organisations. The military needs not just special counter terror units, but also to indoctrinate their ranks on the importance of taking on these extremists, who exploit the sacred name of Islam because of their distorted worldview.
But the military alone cannot deliver in this kind of fight in which the civilian government, political parties and the police should remain most crucial players. It is the civilian authorities which have the prime responsibility of spearheading this war on ideological plane and isolating militants. For this, Pakistan needs a comprehensive counter-insurgency policy, addressing both the symptoms and causes of extremism and terrorism.
The Mehran base attack, while calls for the accountability of officials responsible for lax security, also underlines the risk of operating defense installations amidst the densely populated neighbourhoods -- especially in an urban jungle like Karachi. The military leadership should think of moving cantonment areas and defense assets out of the civilian areas on a fast track basis and ensure that housing schemes and commercial areas do not spring up again around them.
There is also a need to closely scrutinise the internal security mechanism within the armed forces and make them foolproof against the penetration of extremist Islamic groups. There is ample evidence of inside help in many high-profile terror attacks in the past. The Mehran airbase assault also need to be reviewed from this point-of-view because the band of terrorists not just managed to sneak inside the base, but also remain undetected until they themselves fired the first shots.
Authorities face an uphill task in confronting the massive terror network, which remains loosely knit and is without a centralised command. Besides known major terror organisations, which themselves are more than two dozen, the terrorists have multiplied in countless of small shadowy cells. This includes not just the hardcore ones, but also who are in the making. Many of them remain undetected until they commit their first and last act of terror -- the suicide bombing.
While security officials appear convinced that incidents of terrorism and extremism are likely to hit a new peak as the al-Qaeda and its local sympathisers are out to avenge the killing of bin Laden, the Mehran airbase attack should be used to galvanise the street and barracks against this monster. This happened during the Swat operation, which remains a resounding success story in this conflict. The civil and military leadership must grab the initiative from extremists. If our leadership seriously wants to stop the country’s slide into anarchy, guard its sovereignty, prevent unilateral Abbottabad like operations as done by the US Marines, it has to act and succeed against the monster of militancy and extremism itself. We have no other choice.