By Amir Zia
May 08, 2011
The News
An angry, bitter Pakistan appears more on the path of confrontation than keeping pace with the international community on the issue of terrorism. This, in itself, is a major contradiction as Pakistan has suffered the most -- both financially and in terms of human lives — at the hands of al Qaeda, the Taliban and their local allies
Pakistan is now considered amongst some of the most dangerous countries in the world, placed in the wretched company of conflict-ridden Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine, Congo, Somalia, Sudan and Haiti. Whatever grand, self-deluding image we might have of ourselves as defenders, torch-bearers and promoters of Islam and the world's lone Muslim nuclear power, others see us as an abnormal society and a weak state that appears all set to implode. This negative perception strengthens itself due to the state’s inability and incapacity to establish writ on its territory and resolve the simmering internal contradictions that have transformed Pakistan into the hotbed and breeding ground of violence and terrorism.
No wonder, many of the mid-level and small foreign investors and businessmen have long stopped visiting the country. Instead, Pakistani businesspeople and exporters have to go all the way to the UAE, Malaysia and other peaceful and safe places just to hold meetings with them. The giant multinationals and foreign companies also remain reluctant to send their top officials to this land of the pure because of security concerns. They mostly operate businesses from abroad or through their local representatives.
Many leading foreign apparel brands have asked their Pakistani partners to shift their production units abroad, to ensure that their supply-line remain intact in times of crisis. As a result, some top Pakistani textile manufacturers have already and some are in the process of establishing their units abroad, including countries like Bangladesh.
Under these circumstances, it should be no surprise to see the net flow of foreign investments plunging to a meager 2.08 billion dollars in financial year 2009/10 (July-June) from the highs of 8.42 in 2006/07, according to the State Bank of Pakistan figures. In the first nine months of the current fiscal, the total foreign investment stands at around 1.31 billion dollars compared with 1.32 billion dollars during the same period a year ago.
The domestic investment climate also remains bleak with many local investors and businesspeople putting plans on hold due to the country's continuing political uncertainty and the dark specter of terrorism and violence, which has been affecting every section of our society.
The signs of times, indeed, are ominous and have got only worse with the killing of the world's most wanted terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden in the garrison town of Abbottabad on May 2. Media reports that bin Laden had been living in Abbottabad for more than five years — despite all the denials by top civilian and military leaders all these years — has come as another huge blow to Pakistan’s already battered world image.
Although the focus of popular debate in Pakistan remains violation of its sovereignty by the American assault on bin Laden’s den rather than about his presence in the country, the international community is rightly asking how the al Qaeda chief managed to find a safe-haven here. Was it the sheer incompetence of our security apparatus or was there connivance at some level? Whatever the answer to this tricky question, Pakistan remains in the dock and will be under close international scrutiny for all of its sins of commission and omission in the years to come.
The distrust of Pakistan’s establishment and its institutions will grow, which is bad news for the country’s struggling economy dependent on foreign aid, trade and support. Although the world’s leading rating agency -- Moody’s Investors -- has said that Pakistan does not face an immediate risk of a withdrawal of foreign aid in the aftermath of bin Laden’s killing, analysts say that the country will remain under intense pressure in the mid- to long-run.
Yes, bin Laden, has even in his death, given a major jolt to the Pakistani economy, already caught in the cycle of low growth and double-digit inflation for the last three years. And Pakistan is not going to get rid of bin Laden’s ghost easily.
Nervous Pakistani representatives of multi-national and foreign companies have been frantically revising the risk and threat perception to their operations. “Forget now about expansion and fresh investment in Pakistan. There is a lot of talk of the curtailment or downsizing of our operations,” said an official of a western company requesting anonymity.
Understandably, even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) officials, who were supposed to hold the crucial pre-budget meetings in Islamabad from May 8, shifted this venue to Dubai. Let alone foreigners, even President Asif Ali Zardari now finds it unsafe to travel within the country. Therefore, the Karachi Stock Exchange’s top companies’ award ceremony is being held outside Karachi for the first time ever on May 23 in the President House Islamabad so that President Zardari can grace the event as the chief guest.
As the anti-US and anti-west rhetoric intensifies among the rightwing political parties, on television screens and in the vernacular media, backed by some tough talk by the armed forces of downing US drones if ordered and defending the country’s sovereignty, an angry, bitter Pakistan appears more on the path of confrontation than keeping pace with the international community on the issue of terrorism. This in itself, is a major contradiction, as Pakistan has suffered the most -- both financially and in terms of human lives — at the hands of al Qaeda, the Taliban and their local allies.
Pakistan’s civil and military leadership will have to perform a high-wire act to minimize the damage in the aftermath of bin Laden’s killing on our soil. Until Pakistan manages to beat the monster of extremism and terrorism in all its shades and manifestations, the dream of a prosperous and economically stable Pakistan will remain elusive. It is high time for the country’s ruling elite to work sincerely and honestly, to clear the mist of doubt and distrust, which the world has towards Pakistan on the issue of terrorism.
The right actions, not words, are needed to restore Pakistan’s image and pull it out of its present morass. This will serve as a first step towards the goal of economic revival and prosperity.
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