Musharraf's second coming

By Amir Zia
Saturday, June 19, 2010
The News

Former president Pervez Musharraf's loyalists have started assembling under the banner of the All-Pakistan Muslim League (APML)–the latest addition to the ever-growing number of political parties in this polarised and politically divided country. However, the APML has been launched more with a whimper than a bang. So far, even those political heavyweights who were once close to Musharraf have stayed away from its ranks. It is the duo of Barrister Mohammed Ali Saif and Gen (r) Rashid Qureshi who are its most prominent faces.

For Musharraf, the loyalty of these two may be a source of solace, but in the world of electoral politics, their reach and effectiveness in organising and introducing a new platform remain questionable. Musharraf's fan following on Facebook may be in the tens of thousands, but when it comes to running a political party it is the team that matters. And Musharraf's team seemsed wanting at the launch. Even some of his aides termed the event a "soft-launch."

It is not just the apparent absence of a strong team which should be a matter of concern for Musharraf; it is the changed ground realities that will be the real challenge for him if he decides to return and take part in politics. After all, it is one thing to rule the country for almost a decade as an all-powerful army chief or president and a totally different thing to be an underdog. The experience can be traumatic.

Will Musharraf be able to take the heat and sustain the pressure in the presence of formidable opponents such as Nawaz Sharif and the militant groups backed by Al Qaeda and the Taliban which would be breathing down his neck? And that's not all–the judges of the superior courts will now be free to dispense justice. Meanwhile, the media would like to have its pound of flesh. Indeed, Musharraf will be walking through a political minefield if he really decides to return. Without the tactical support of the country's powerful institutions and his foreign friends, even the chances of his remaining afloat would be slim.

Apart from these inherent difficulties which Musharraf is likely to face when he starts his new political journey as a civilian, there are pertinent questions about the vision and scope of his party and its ability to make a difference on the political landscape of Pakistan.

If Musharraf's APML really takes off, will it provide a more democratic and honest leadership? Will its composition be any different from that of the major parties, dominated by feudal lords, powerful tribal chiefs, industrialists and traders? What different social, economic and political agenda will it offer? And, most importantly, will it be more pro-people?

The question of Musharraf's political future is also as important as the role, vision and political dynamics of his APML. At the age of 67 years, what miracles do his followers expect of him, none of which he could perform as the all-powerful military ruler of the country? Many of the choices he made and decisions he took undermined the very vision he announced after seizing power in October 1999. His political journey, which started with promises of restructuring the country's economy, politics and electoral system, is a sorry tale of political expediency and compromises.

No wonder most of Musharraf's legacy proved short-lived–from his desire to keep what he called corrupt politicians out of the ring to his much-trumpeted local bodies system. None could stand the test of times. When he left power, Pakistan was just as fragmented, divided and corrupt as it was before him. Only the level of violence and terrorism had increased despite the fact the Musharraf took the prudent decision of siding with the international community in the US-led war against terrorism.

However, his planned return to the political fray does not appear to be well-thought-out and promising.

Even the name Musharraf chose for his politics–All Pakistan Muslim League–is one of the most misused and abused names in our history. The party which led the independence movement under one of the most upright, honest and incorruptible leaders, Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah, perhaps died with him. And since his death in September 1948, some of Pakistan's most corrupt, opportunistic and undemocratic politicians have used the name of this party to serve their vested interests.

Even now, all the various factions of the Muslim League, including those of Nawaz Sharif, Chaudhary Shujaat Hussain, Sheikh Rashid Ahmed and Pir Pagaro, to name a few, bear no resemblance to the party of the Quaid-e-Azam, which was driven by his vision for Pakistan. Musharraf in his heyday first patronised the PML-Q and then chose it to advance his political career. This is symbolic and reveals a lot about the future of the APML. It is eyeing leaders and workers of the PML-Q, its dissident faction and other smaller parties to build a base.

However, apart from the few third- and fourth-tier politicians who have joined Musharraf's party, the so-called heavyweights appear to be in a wait-and-see-mode despite assurances to the former president of their loyalty.

Musharraf could have a possible role in the larger scheme of things in Pakistani politics if the first- and second-tier politicians, who can beg votes on the basis of their personal strengths, start joining his party with the covert blessings of a section of the Pakistani establishment. But from the way things are developing, there are slim chances of this happening in the near future.

To expect Musharraf to conduct populist politics will be expecting too much of him. The problem is not just the fact that Musharraf's personality is not fit for this kind of politics, the issue is that the times have changed. Now, external factors will play a major role in determining whether he stays relevant or not.

Musharraf's second innings in politics promises to be on a much weaker and uncertain wicket. Does he have the resolve to deliver and make a difference? Enjoying a Facebook following and a large fan club is one thing, but translating it into political action is a different ballgame.