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Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Sindh’s Political Cauldron

By Amir Zia
The News
Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Whatever short-term electoral goals Sharif and his nationalist allies should have, some analysts see their coming together as a positive development and a step towards creating national cohesion by providing a chance to Sindhi nationalists to join mainstream politics.


The Sindhi nationalist forces, despite all their thunderous sloganeering and radical programmes ranging from the outright secessionist aspirations to demands of maximum provincial autonomy and restructuring the federal state into a confederation, have so far remained marginal players when it comes to electoral politics. Veteran nationalist politicians – from G M Syed to Rasool Bux Palijo – failed to win their own seats as the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) has squarely dominated Sindh’s electoral politics since the early 1970s.

Even during its bad days – which have been numerous – when the establishment kept propping up anti-PPP politicians and engineering elections, the Bhutto legacy proved too strong to be routed especially in the rural parts of Sindh.
Will this pattern change after the merger and formation of an electoral alliance with some of the nationalist forces and Mian Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), which is again trying to make inroads in Sindh?
This time, the PML Nawaz is not just banking on the traditional anti-PPP feudal and tribal politicians, but also trying to reach out to the Sindhi nationalists. All shades of anti-PPP elements are joining the PML-N bandwagon.
Some of the traditional pro-establishment and anti-PPP politicians, who quit the PML-N after its ouster from power in the bloodless military coup of 1999 and jumped into the folds of the PML Quaid-e-Azam – the King’s party – are already back in Sharif’s camp. Liaquat Jatoi, Hamida Khuhro, Marvi Memon, Sardar Manzoor Panhwar, and the Pir of Ranipur are just a few of these politicians. The PML-N now eyes few more powerful families, including the Sherazis in Thatta, Unars in Larkana, Magsis in Tando Allahyar and former Sindh chief minister Arbab Ghulam Rahim in Tharparkar in an attempt to give a formidable opposition to the PPP – at least in some parts of rural Sindh.
But the support of the traditional anti-PPP forces in Sindh is not seen as being enough by Sharif and his team members, who in their home province of Punjab face the challenge of its division in the name of Seraiki province – one of the rallying slogans of the PPP and its allies for the coming elections. Therefore, to increase pressure on the PPP in its power base and give an added punch to its arsenal, the PML-N is trying to rope in the Sindhi nationalists, who have mainly based their politics on what they perceived as Punjab’s hegemony over the country’s economic and political pie.
Mumtaz Bhutto, after years and years of advocating restructuring of the state into a confederation and aggressively speaking for the economic and political rights of Sindh, has already merged his Sindh National Front with the PML-N in May this year. For Sharif, showcasing an estranged Bhutto – once known as the “talented cousin” of PPP’s founder Zulfikar Ali Bhutto – in his cupboard during the hurly-burly of elections could offer a few scoring points. Although Mumtaz Bhutto himself failed to make much of an impact in Sindh’s politics after his disassociation with the PPP, he may prove of symbolic importance as the PPP will enter the election fray under the command of Asif Ali Zardari and without what its opponents say is “a true Bhutto heir.” The 2008 elections, which came soon after Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, they say, gave the added advantage of a sympathy vote to the PPP.
Another recent development is that of Jalal Mohammed Shah – the grandson of G M Syed – who has steered his Sindh United Party (SUP) into an electoral alliance with the PML-N. For some radical Sindhi nationalists, Shah has never been a serious advocate of Sindh’s rights, but the seven-point understanding between the two parties includes a promise of maximum provincial autonomy as guaranteed in the Constitution and the implementation of the water accord of 1991.
The move is symbolically significant for both the PML-N and its new Sindhi nationalist friends, who do not see eye-to-eye on several key issues – from the distribution of water resources and construction of Kalabagh Dam to that of continued migration of people from the north to Sindh and the sharing of economic resources. In a way, both sides have taken a gamble which may be seen as a climbdown by their supporters from their stated positions on these sensitive issues.
These new strange bedfellows of our national politics also underline the lack of choice, especially for the Sindhi nationalists who are desperate to carve out a niche in electoral politics, and on their own stand little chance of making any impact. No wonder the SUP went solo and entered into an election alliance with Sharif by parting ways from its other nationalist allies – Dr. Qadir Magsi’s Jeay Sindh Tarraqi Pasand Party and Palijo’s Awami Tehreek, which is now led by his son Ayaz Latif Palijo.
These three nationalist parties have remained part of the Sindh Progressive Nationalist Alliance since 2010 with an aim of running in the elections, but now this plan stands in jeopardy given the new political alignments.
Sharif’s wooing of the nationalist politicians also aims to exploit the possible disgruntlement of many rural Sindh voters, who are unhappy over the PPP’s alliance with the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). Sharif’s repeated assertions and promises to the nationalist forces that Sindh’s division will not be tolerated is aimed at whipping up this sentiment, though the issue is hardly taken as a serious demand because the MQM itself remains opposed to the idea – at least when it comes to its stated political position.
But whatever short-term electoral goals Sharif and his nationalist allies should have, some analysts see their coming together as a positive development and a step towards creating national cohesion by providing a chance to Sindhi nationalists to join mainstream politics.
It also allows Sharif and his party to understand the point of view of the small but emerging Sindhi middle and lower middle class, which often gets attracted to nationalist politics at least in their youth.
But Sharif’s new political alignments in Sindh do not in any way mean that the PPP, despite its baggage of poor governance and allegations of corruption and inefficiency, is down and out in its powerbase.
The PPP under Zardari has tried to consolidate its position among its traditional rural vote bank not just by giving incentives to the agriculture sector which has created liquidity, but also through the targeted pro-poor Benazir Income Support Fund. For many voters in Sindh, the PPP, despite its weakness, remains the only choice as they do not see the Punjab-based PML-N or the nationalists as a viable option.
Although the party is without a Bhutto, it will go on the front-foot in an attempt to recreate the magic by using the names of its slain leaders during the election campaign. While the political landscape of 2013 will be different from past elections, the Bhutto legacy will remain the one mega-card for the PPP in its powerbase. The Bhutto name gives the PPP a head-start in rural Sindh barring select traditional constituencies where it should expect a close contest – unless the voters’ last minute verdict produces a major shocker.

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