By Amir Zia
August 11, 2014
The News
Even if Sharif manages to weather the storm, he is likely to emerge as a much weakened prime minister for the inevitable next round. Dr Qadri and Imran can smell blood.
Pakistan’s nascent democratic order again appears to be gasping and battling for survival. It is not just the government, but the entire system that now seems to be at stake. There is, indeed, a rare consensus on both sides of the sharp political divide while painting this gloomy scenario.
Those who want Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to complete his five-year term see a conspiracy afoot against the democratic system in the form of Imran Khan’s ‘Azadi March’ and Dr Tahirul Qadri’s call for a revolution. Those determined to send the government packing also hear echoes of drum beats and marching boots if Sharif continues to act as – what they term – a ‘monarch.’
It is ironic that a little over one year after the 2013 elections – which gave Sharif a comfortable majority in parliament – the political space is rife with speculation on whether the elected government will survive or not. The guessing game is on. Is the unthinkable going to happen this month, this year… or will Sharif defy all the odds and be able to survive all the googlies of Qadri and toe crushers of the great Khan?
If you are a born optimist, even in these times of uncertainty and days of political turmoil there is a glimmer of hope. Yes, the good news is that most traditional political forces – be they at the centre or the provinces – are on one page to save democracy and the beleaguered PML-N government. The PPP wants Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to complete his term. The Jamaat-e-Islami is working overtime to broker a deal between Sharif and his arch-rival Imran Khan. The Baloch and Pakthtun nationalists, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and many other significant and insignificant lovers of democracy all want this wobbly and dysfunctional system to continue. Period!
The optimists see this commitment to democracy as a sign of maturity of our key political players, who are refusing to be part of any alleged conspiracy to derail the democratic order. One of our national leaders summed up the sentiment of the democratic forces in this oft-repeated cliché: ‘the worst kind of democracy is better than a dictatorship’.
Those who are politically correct believe that, given time and space, the democratic forces will learn and unlearn through trial and error and be able to emerge as dependable stakeholders in the system.
But if you are a fatalistic realist – like many Pakistanis are – the haunting question is: do we have time for all this trial and error which is considered part and parcel of democracy in a country like Pakistan where the democratic institutions are weak and appear to be non-performing? For many, the very faces of our champions of democracy are enough to sink one’s heart. The batting order may appear impressive on paper, but the scorecard is indeed dismal.
We have Prime Minister Sharif, who started the journey with a lot of hope and promise in 2013, but despite parliamentary majority now stands vulnerable – thanks to making wrong choices, stoking unnecessary and avoidable conflicts and a highly autocratic and personalised way of running the affairs of the government. All the days of exile and political wilderness failed to transform this third-time elected prime minister into a statesman, which the country desperately needs at this crucial juncture.
Then we have the former president, Asif Ali Zardari. The very name and his doings bring either revulsion or satirical smiles on most faces. The people of urban and rural Sindh are still caught in the twin web of the PPP-MQM rule which is known for its rampant corruption, criminal misrule, nepotism and lawlessness.
One can keep counting the names and deeds of these defenders of democracy – only to realise that there hardly seems any light at the end of the tunnel. Even if mid-term elections are held tomorrow – as Imran Khan wants – the complexion of parliament is unlikely to change. There will be scions of the same old tribal and feudal families and crony industrialists dominating the house as they do today. Their way of governance will also be the same no matter which political party they belong to. This is a harsh fact, unlikely to change unless sweeping socio-economic reforms are introduced in the country. But then who will bell the cat?
Nevertheless, the battle royal continues…and despite efforts by some of the traditional stakeholders to prevent the showdown and break the political impasse, the writing on the wall is ominous.
The government is resorting to the same old tried and tested oppressive administrative tactics to prevent protesters from assembling in the federal capital against the backdrop of the much delayed move to reach some kind of a deal at least with Imran Khan and his PTI. The mood of Dr Qadri and his supporters seems grim as they take on the police, resulting into sporadic incidents of violence in Lahore and some other parts of Punjab. The government also appears to be in no mood to extend an olive branch to him as it is doing in the case of Imran Khan.
The stakes are high. It is now a battle of nerves. Who will blink first?
Dr Qadri, being the odd ball, has no stakes in the system and appears determined to go at any length to make his ‘dream revolution’ happen. Imran Khan, despite having stakes in the system, does not see himself as a traditional political force and takes pride in being the harbinger of change. His protest plans have not just put Sharif into a quandary, but also taken him to a position from where he cannot back out without losing face. And if he goes ahead with his march, the outcome could not be of his liking and possibly beyond his control.
It is a test case for the traditional political forces as well; will they be able to broker a deal that offers a face-saving opportunity to both the government and Khan? The task seems difficult in the limited time at their disposal, but then as the German strongman Otto von Bismarck has so rightly said: politics is the art of the possible – the art of the next best.
However, for conspiracy theorists what still remains a pertinent question is who gave the duo – Dr Qadri and Khan – the confidence to up the ante and believe that the time is ripe to shake the tree? Who will be the ultimate winner in this politics of confrontation and brinkmanship? And the most important question is whether the current turmoil can be blamed just at the doorstep of undemocratic forces or are our elected representatives also responsible for bringing themselves to this sorry state of affairs.
At a time when the armed forces are locked in the operation against foreign and local extremists, this kind of a political crisis remains the last thing which the state and its institutions could have wanted at their hands. But the focus and priorities of our politicians are seldom right.
Conventional wisdom says that the army would never want to pit itself against the people to save Sharif. Similarly, Sharif would not like army to be dragged into the mainstream of the political fray – for that will have a cost. Imran Khan, too, would not want to be seen responsible for pushing the red-lines to an extent that results in the collapse of the system. He too will be a loser in any such eventuality.
Then what? Perhaps all the political forces should attempt to settle for the next best and decide to fight another day. But, it is also a fact that one becomes hostage to circumstances and left with no choice other than to match words with actions. Unleashing the genie of public wrath is sometimes easy, but controlling its outcome often proves next to impossible.
Even if Sharif manages to weather the storm, he is likely to emerge as a much weakened prime minister for the inevitable next round. Dr Qadri and Imran can smell blood.
August 11, 2014
The News
Even if Sharif manages to weather the storm, he is likely to emerge as a much weakened prime minister for the inevitable next round. Dr Qadri and Imran can smell blood.
Pakistan’s nascent democratic order again appears to be gasping and battling for survival. It is not just the government, but the entire system that now seems to be at stake. There is, indeed, a rare consensus on both sides of the sharp political divide while painting this gloomy scenario.
Those who want Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to complete his five-year term see a conspiracy afoot against the democratic system in the form of Imran Khan’s ‘Azadi March’ and Dr Tahirul Qadri’s call for a revolution. Those determined to send the government packing also hear echoes of drum beats and marching boots if Sharif continues to act as – what they term – a ‘monarch.’
It is ironic that a little over one year after the 2013 elections – which gave Sharif a comfortable majority in parliament – the political space is rife with speculation on whether the elected government will survive or not. The guessing game is on. Is the unthinkable going to happen this month, this year… or will Sharif defy all the odds and be able to survive all the googlies of Qadri and toe crushers of the great Khan?
If you are a born optimist, even in these times of uncertainty and days of political turmoil there is a glimmer of hope. Yes, the good news is that most traditional political forces – be they at the centre or the provinces – are on one page to save democracy and the beleaguered PML-N government. The PPP wants Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to complete his term. The Jamaat-e-Islami is working overtime to broker a deal between Sharif and his arch-rival Imran Khan. The Baloch and Pakthtun nationalists, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and many other significant and insignificant lovers of democracy all want this wobbly and dysfunctional system to continue. Period!
The optimists see this commitment to democracy as a sign of maturity of our key political players, who are refusing to be part of any alleged conspiracy to derail the democratic order. One of our national leaders summed up the sentiment of the democratic forces in this oft-repeated cliché: ‘the worst kind of democracy is better than a dictatorship’.
Those who are politically correct believe that, given time and space, the democratic forces will learn and unlearn through trial and error and be able to emerge as dependable stakeholders in the system.
But if you are a fatalistic realist – like many Pakistanis are – the haunting question is: do we have time for all this trial and error which is considered part and parcel of democracy in a country like Pakistan where the democratic institutions are weak and appear to be non-performing? For many, the very faces of our champions of democracy are enough to sink one’s heart. The batting order may appear impressive on paper, but the scorecard is indeed dismal.
We have Prime Minister Sharif, who started the journey with a lot of hope and promise in 2013, but despite parliamentary majority now stands vulnerable – thanks to making wrong choices, stoking unnecessary and avoidable conflicts and a highly autocratic and personalised way of running the affairs of the government. All the days of exile and political wilderness failed to transform this third-time elected prime minister into a statesman, which the country desperately needs at this crucial juncture.
Then we have the former president, Asif Ali Zardari. The very name and his doings bring either revulsion or satirical smiles on most faces. The people of urban and rural Sindh are still caught in the twin web of the PPP-MQM rule which is known for its rampant corruption, criminal misrule, nepotism and lawlessness.
One can keep counting the names and deeds of these defenders of democracy – only to realise that there hardly seems any light at the end of the tunnel. Even if mid-term elections are held tomorrow – as Imran Khan wants – the complexion of parliament is unlikely to change. There will be scions of the same old tribal and feudal families and crony industrialists dominating the house as they do today. Their way of governance will also be the same no matter which political party they belong to. This is a harsh fact, unlikely to change unless sweeping socio-economic reforms are introduced in the country. But then who will bell the cat?
Nevertheless, the battle royal continues…and despite efforts by some of the traditional stakeholders to prevent the showdown and break the political impasse, the writing on the wall is ominous.
The government is resorting to the same old tried and tested oppressive administrative tactics to prevent protesters from assembling in the federal capital against the backdrop of the much delayed move to reach some kind of a deal at least with Imran Khan and his PTI. The mood of Dr Qadri and his supporters seems grim as they take on the police, resulting into sporadic incidents of violence in Lahore and some other parts of Punjab. The government also appears to be in no mood to extend an olive branch to him as it is doing in the case of Imran Khan.
The stakes are high. It is now a battle of nerves. Who will blink first?
Dr Qadri, being the odd ball, has no stakes in the system and appears determined to go at any length to make his ‘dream revolution’ happen. Imran Khan, despite having stakes in the system, does not see himself as a traditional political force and takes pride in being the harbinger of change. His protest plans have not just put Sharif into a quandary, but also taken him to a position from where he cannot back out without losing face. And if he goes ahead with his march, the outcome could not be of his liking and possibly beyond his control.
It is a test case for the traditional political forces as well; will they be able to broker a deal that offers a face-saving opportunity to both the government and Khan? The task seems difficult in the limited time at their disposal, but then as the German strongman Otto von Bismarck has so rightly said: politics is the art of the possible – the art of the next best.
However, for conspiracy theorists what still remains a pertinent question is who gave the duo – Dr Qadri and Khan – the confidence to up the ante and believe that the time is ripe to shake the tree? Who will be the ultimate winner in this politics of confrontation and brinkmanship? And the most important question is whether the current turmoil can be blamed just at the doorstep of undemocratic forces or are our elected representatives also responsible for bringing themselves to this sorry state of affairs.
At a time when the armed forces are locked in the operation against foreign and local extremists, this kind of a political crisis remains the last thing which the state and its institutions could have wanted at their hands. But the focus and priorities of our politicians are seldom right.
Conventional wisdom says that the army would never want to pit itself against the people to save Sharif. Similarly, Sharif would not like army to be dragged into the mainstream of the political fray – for that will have a cost. Imran Khan, too, would not want to be seen responsible for pushing the red-lines to an extent that results in the collapse of the system. He too will be a loser in any such eventuality.
Then what? Perhaps all the political forces should attempt to settle for the next best and decide to fight another day. But, it is also a fact that one becomes hostage to circumstances and left with no choice other than to match words with actions. Unleashing the genie of public wrath is sometimes easy, but controlling its outcome often proves next to impossible.
Even if Sharif manages to weather the storm, he is likely to emerge as a much weakened prime minister for the inevitable next round. Dr Qadri and Imran can smell blood.
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