Smoke Without Fire

By Amir Zia
Bol News Weekly
Dec. 19, 2021
 
Instability and chaos remain in the DNA of Pakistan’s flawed parliamentary form of democracy and corruption remains the price we pay for enjoying it. 

If one believes the dominant narrative in Pakistani media, then Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government is already on the ropes, and struggling to reach the finishing line of its five-year term. The toxic smog of allegations, speculations, leaked audios and videos and conspiracy theories is so strong and overwhelming that Pakistan’s political outlook has started to appear more and more uncertain, bleak and perilous.
If one set of prominent conspiracy theorists claim that they can sense serious moves aimed at forcing an in-house change in the Parliament, the other set sees Punjab as the soft-underbelly of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) government from where the current set-up would start to sink first. At both the center and Punjab, the PTI government enjoys a razor thin majority with the support of its coalition partners who, according to some commentators, can ditch the Prime Minister anytime now, because he no longer stands on the same page with the mighty military establishment.
This line of argument is being pushed and repeated so aggressively on both the mainstream and social media against the backdrop of the country’s ever-growing and exacerbating economic woes that the PTI Government, perhaps even for many of its supporters, appears to be standing on a weak wicket now.
Prime Minister Imran Khan should at least give credit to his political rivals, especially the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leaders for their deft handling of the media.
On one hand, the opposition and its allies in the media have managed to create an atmosphere of continued political uncertainty and, on the other, they successfully painted some of the most corrupt politicians as mere victims of the accountability drive, which unfortunately failed to take off because of the country’s poor and flawed investigation, prosecution and judicial system.
But the PTI government’s much publicized accountability campaign and its challenges merit a separate article, which we can keep for some other day. Let’s just focus on the question whether the PTI government would be able to complete its five-year term under Imran Khan’s watch, given all the country’s economic challenges and many of the wrong turns it took since assuming power in August 2018.
Imran Khan’s detractors base their argument of his government’s weakness and vulnerability on the over-blown assumption that it is no longer on the same page with the military leadership as it used to be.
Prime Minister’s recent tiff over the appointment of the ISI chief is being cited as the main reason for his falling out with the establishment, which they allege was instrumental in the PTI’s ascent to power. Then, there are several other issues on which Imran Khan does not appear to see eye-to-eye with the military leadership, including his handling of relations with the United States. The critics also claim that the Prime Minister has also ignored some of the recommendations made by the military leadership, including the one given on the handling affairs in Punjab and bringing a pair of experienced hands as the Chief Minister of the province.
But the media and opposition gurus appear to be blowing these differences out of proportion and in an exaggerated manner as they have not reached the point of no return where any side would want to push for a final showdown. Background interviews with a couple of PTI leaders and security officials reveal that the controversy over the appointment of the ISI is now over and there is business as usual between the military and civil leadership. And this point-of-view holds weight as, given the grave internal and external challenges faced by the country, there is hardly any room for adventurism and brinkmanship.
Therefore, stability and continuation of the system remain the top priority of all the key players and decision-makers as their plate is already full of challenges – from threats on the eastern and western frontiers to that of fighting the twin ghost of extremism and terrorism, and handling the law and order situation of Balochistan. On the external front, managing the tricky ties with the United States and the Western bloc as well as balancing relations with China and other friendly countries — they all require the civil and military leadership to maintain a united front.
Although there is a sustained campaign by the opposition politicians, especially the PML-N, to malign the Pakistan Army by holding it responsible for their failure and the ignominious ouster of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from power on corruption charges, the leaking of Panama Papers was an international scandal the credit of which cannot be given to the establishment.
Now by leveling allegations against the Army, Nawaz Sharif and his followers are attempting to create a space for themselves. Similarly, the PML-N faction led by Shehbaz Sharif is trying to woo the establishment and present itself as an alternative to Imran Khan. The PPP is also maneuvering hard to emerge as a dark horse. This means all the major opposition forces want to strike a deal with the establishment.
But in recent years, the military leadership has maintained in all its interactions with the media that unlike the 1990s, it is no longer in the game of making or breaking governments. Since 2008, the establishment has extended support to whichever party that came to power – be it the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) or the PML-N and now the PTI. As a result, all the political parties, which came to power following the 2002 general elections, successfully completed their terms.
In an attempt to stay out of controversies, the Army has decided to stay away from the electoral activities and did not involve itself in any of election duties in the by-polls and even excused itself from transporting ballot boxes in military helicopters during the last Gilgit-Baltistan general elections.
While the Army is trying to play with a straight bat, the mature leaders of the key opposition parties, despite their aggressive posturing, are also in no mood to upset the apple-cart when the PTI government is in the fourth year of its term. They know that it is not the time to strike and force a change as it would set a wrong precedent and make Imran Khan a political martyr and improve his chances in the 2023 elections.
The inaction on part of the opposition also results from the fact that there are huge fissures and a lingering distrust within its own ranks. This division is not just confined to one party against the other, for example the PPP and the PML-N, but also within the parties themselves. The PML-N remains the prime example of this tussle in which the politics and interests of Nawaz Sharif and his daughter stand in conflict with that of Shehbaz Sharif and his son.
Therefore, Prime Minister Imran Khan does not face any serious political or apparent legal and institutional threat, which can end his term prematurely as happened with his predecessors. His troubles stem from the country’s economic challenges, a number of wrong appointments he had made and inability to fulfill many of his electoral promises.
The mutual challenge for the civil and military leadership is how to maintain a semblance of stability in the country, which is vital given its enormous challenges. But creating such optics is extremely difficult because of the sensational media, which loves bad news, and an opposition in which many politicians are fighting for their survival or to protect their political and financial interests. Through media manipulations and aggressive posturing, these forces would keep the entire Pakistan on its toes through frenzied activities and dishing out one conspiracy theory after another.
Yes, there will be a lot of smoke, but without any real fire. Rumours, speculations and conspiracy theories will keep Pakistan’s political scene engulfed with a toxic layer of smog even after winters. For instability and chaos remain in the DNA of Pakistan’s flawed parliamentary form of democracy and corruption remains the price we pay for enjoying it.
-- The writer is Editor-in-Chief, Bol Media Group
 

PPP’s Wrong Choices

By Amir Zia
Bol News Website
December 3, 2021

Since the restoration of “pure, undiluted democracy” in the country in 2008, the PPP has one by one seized all the key civic functions and powers, which once were the domain of the city governments.

Whatever little powers were left with the local governments in Sindh have been snatched away with one stroke by the Pakistan Peoples’ Party’s (PPP) provincial government. Following the passage of the Local Government (Amendment) Bill 2021 in the Sindh Assembly on November 26, all the health and education institutions run by the municipal bodies will be taken over by the provincial government.
Now, according to former Mayor of Karachi Mustafa Kamal, the Karachi Metropolitan Corporation (KMC) has been left only with the responsibility of cleaning public toilets. Unfortunately, the number of this basic amenity is too small in the megapolis to keep the Local Government officials occupied.
Yes, since the restoration of “pure, undiluted democracy” in the country in 2008, the PPP has one by one seized all the key civic functions and powers, which once were the domain of the city governments.
The Sindh Government transformed the Karachi Building Control Authority (KBCA) into the Sindh Building Control Authority (SBCA) and grabbed its control. It set up the Sindh High Density Development Board to manage and allow the construction of high-rise buildings in expensive and densely populated parts of Karachi.
These two moves, while empowering the Sindh Government, also ensured that the representatives of the urban areas had no say in town planning or approval of the new buildings. No wonder, since the creation of the provincial government-run SBCA and the High Density Board, there are growing complaints of massive corruption in the construction sector as new high-rises are being allowed without ensuring sufficient water and natural gas supplies, a proper sewerage system or even the allocation of parking spaces. This urban disaster continues to unfold with the latest announcement by the Chief Minister’s Law Adviser Murtaza Wahab that the Sindh Government has prepared an ordinance to stop the anti-encroachment operation and plans to set up a commission to regularize illegally constructed buildings. Doesn’t it smell of official-sanctioned corruption?
Similarly, the Karachi Water & Sewerage Board (KWSB) – once the domain of the city government – is now under the provincial government, which also rules the lucrative Malir and Lyari Development Authorities.
The latest move of taking over the education and health functions by the Sindh government has now effectively made the local governments more or less redundant.
No wonder Sindh’s urban-based political parties are up in arms against the Sindh Local Government (Amendment) Bill 2021. From the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) and from the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) to the Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) – all have raised their respective banners of protest. Yet, they all seem to lack options which can force the PPP to concede at least some powers to the local governments.
The bitter fact is that if all the elected representatives from the urban areas unite and try to empower the local governments through their vote in the Sindh Assembly, they won’t be able to do it because they lack numbers. Therefore, decisions about the urban areas will continue to be taken by the representatives hailing from the rural areas in line with the golden democratic principles in which there is no room for inclusivity.
Staging trouble-making agitation and calling general strikes is also not an option for any of the opposition parties in Sindh because of their objective constraints. The MQM is now just a shadow of its past and appears to have lost its independent decision-making. One sees a lot of posturing from the MQM leaders, but then they fail to walk the talk. The PTI – the biggest party to emerge from Karachi in 2018 elections – also won’t like to shake the apple cart of Sindh, or especially stoke any trouble in Karachi because it is in the driving seat at the center. In its remaining term in power, the PTI would like to have whatever little semblance of stability it can have in the country’s financial and commercial hub. Therefore, it too won’t go beyond issuing angry statements.
The Jamaat-e-Islami, despite its strong organizational structure and efforts to expand its base in Karachi, does not have the popular penetration to pose any real challenge to the Sindh Government. The same is the case of tough-talking Mustafa Kamal’s PSP.
Option three – challenging the amendment in the court – as exercised by the PSP by filing a petition in the Sindh High Court against the passage of the latest bill also gives one little hope. A similar petition filed by MQM’s former mayor, Waseem Akhter, has been pending in the Supreme Court of Pakistan since 2017. The petitioner has asked for financial and administrative powers to the local governments in line with the Article 140-A of the Constitution and sought constitutional protection for this third tier of representation as given to the federal government. But honourable judges appear reluctant to decide the legislative matter in the court.
The urban-based political parties will have to think of some out-of-box strategy to empower local governments, but for this they must find some allies and partners in the rural areas – not just politicians, but civil society members and intellectuals as well.
As a matter of fact, devolution of power to the grassroots level is a progressive, modern and a pro-people cause. The PPP is swimming against the tide by concentrating powers at the provincial level, revealing its undemocratic mindset and anti-people bias.
However, the urban parties because of their own myopic and opportunist politics fail to capitalize on the weaknesses and unprincipled stance of the PPP in this particular case.
The biggest mistake which parties like the MQM commit on a regular basis is that they always present the case of the empowerment of the local bodies on ethnic lines or by highlighting the rural-urban divide. This line of argument or the demand for a separate province goes in favour of the PPP and, without saying, strengthens its own ethnic or rural Sindh card, although ordinary citizens in the smaller cities, towns and villages of the province have suffered equally, or perhaps much more at the hands of the poor governance and rampant corruption of the PPP leadership.
The urban-based parties should refrain from committing this mistake and instead try to unite the people on the grounds of their problems. The messaging should start from Karachi and Hyderabad where people belonging to one community or ethnicity face the same issues and problems as that of the other.
A multi-ethnic city like Karachi, and a multi-ethnic province like Sindh cannot afford to ignite the self-consuming flames of ethnic politics. The results would be disastrous.
All those forces which want empowered local bodies have to explain to the masses that they are asking these powers not just for Karachi or Hyderabad but for the entire province and the country.
Giant cities like Karachi and even smaller cities cannot grow and progress until their mayors and civic bodies are given both financial and administrative powers. The PPP, which emerges as an absolute villain in this case, should rethink its myopic stance. If the party is serious in reviving its fortunes and placing its young leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari at the Prime Minister House in some near or distant future, it cannot do so by ignoring the aspirations and demands of Sindh’s urban centres.
Empowering the third tier of government and devolving powers is the only way forward. The sooner the PPP and the other mainstream parties realize this, the better.

The writer is Editor-in-Chief, Bol Media Group