Smoke Without Fire

By Amir Zia
Bol News Weekly
Dec. 19, 2021
 
Instability and chaos remain in the DNA of Pakistan’s flawed parliamentary form of democracy and corruption remains the price we pay for enjoying it. 

If one believes the dominant narrative in Pakistani media, then Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government is already on the ropes, and struggling to reach the finishing line of its five-year term. The toxic smog of allegations, speculations, leaked audios and videos and conspiracy theories is so strong and overwhelming that Pakistan’s political outlook has started to appear more and more uncertain, bleak and perilous.
If one set of prominent conspiracy theorists claim that they can sense serious moves aimed at forcing an in-house change in the Parliament, the other set sees Punjab as the soft-underbelly of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) government from where the current set-up would start to sink first. At both the center and Punjab, the PTI government enjoys a razor thin majority with the support of its coalition partners who, according to some commentators, can ditch the Prime Minister anytime now, because he no longer stands on the same page with the mighty military establishment.
This line of argument is being pushed and repeated so aggressively on both the mainstream and social media against the backdrop of the country’s ever-growing and exacerbating economic woes that the PTI Government, perhaps even for many of its supporters, appears to be standing on a weak wicket now.
Prime Minister Imran Khan should at least give credit to his political rivals, especially the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leaders for their deft handling of the media.
On one hand, the opposition and its allies in the media have managed to create an atmosphere of continued political uncertainty and, on the other, they successfully painted some of the most corrupt politicians as mere victims of the accountability drive, which unfortunately failed to take off because of the country’s poor and flawed investigation, prosecution and judicial system.
But the PTI government’s much publicized accountability campaign and its challenges merit a separate article, which we can keep for some other day. Let’s just focus on the question whether the PTI government would be able to complete its five-year term under Imran Khan’s watch, given all the country’s economic challenges and many of the wrong turns it took since assuming power in August 2018.
Imran Khan’s detractors base their argument of his government’s weakness and vulnerability on the over-blown assumption that it is no longer on the same page with the military leadership as it used to be.
Prime Minister’s recent tiff over the appointment of the ISI chief is being cited as the main reason for his falling out with the establishment, which they allege was instrumental in the PTI’s ascent to power. Then, there are several other issues on which Imran Khan does not appear to see eye-to-eye with the military leadership, including his handling of relations with the United States. The critics also claim that the Prime Minister has also ignored some of the recommendations made by the military leadership, including the one given on the handling affairs in Punjab and bringing a pair of experienced hands as the Chief Minister of the province.
But the media and opposition gurus appear to be blowing these differences out of proportion and in an exaggerated manner as they have not reached the point of no return where any side would want to push for a final showdown. Background interviews with a couple of PTI leaders and security officials reveal that the controversy over the appointment of the ISI is now over and there is business as usual between the military and civil leadership. And this point-of-view holds weight as, given the grave internal and external challenges faced by the country, there is hardly any room for adventurism and brinkmanship.
Therefore, stability and continuation of the system remain the top priority of all the key players and decision-makers as their plate is already full of challenges – from threats on the eastern and western frontiers to that of fighting the twin ghost of extremism and terrorism, and handling the law and order situation of Balochistan. On the external front, managing the tricky ties with the United States and the Western bloc as well as balancing relations with China and other friendly countries — they all require the civil and military leadership to maintain a united front.
Although there is a sustained campaign by the opposition politicians, especially the PML-N, to malign the Pakistan Army by holding it responsible for their failure and the ignominious ouster of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from power on corruption charges, the leaking of Panama Papers was an international scandal the credit of which cannot be given to the establishment.
Now by leveling allegations against the Army, Nawaz Sharif and his followers are attempting to create a space for themselves. Similarly, the PML-N faction led by Shehbaz Sharif is trying to woo the establishment and present itself as an alternative to Imran Khan. The PPP is also maneuvering hard to emerge as a dark horse. This means all the major opposition forces want to strike a deal with the establishment.
But in recent years, the military leadership has maintained in all its interactions with the media that unlike the 1990s, it is no longer in the game of making or breaking governments. Since 2008, the establishment has extended support to whichever party that came to power – be it the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) or the PML-N and now the PTI. As a result, all the political parties, which came to power following the 2002 general elections, successfully completed their terms.
In an attempt to stay out of controversies, the Army has decided to stay away from the electoral activities and did not involve itself in any of election duties in the by-polls and even excused itself from transporting ballot boxes in military helicopters during the last Gilgit-Baltistan general elections.
While the Army is trying to play with a straight bat, the mature leaders of the key opposition parties, despite their aggressive posturing, are also in no mood to upset the apple-cart when the PTI government is in the fourth year of its term. They know that it is not the time to strike and force a change as it would set a wrong precedent and make Imran Khan a political martyr and improve his chances in the 2023 elections.
The inaction on part of the opposition also results from the fact that there are huge fissures and a lingering distrust within its own ranks. This division is not just confined to one party against the other, for example the PPP and the PML-N, but also within the parties themselves. The PML-N remains the prime example of this tussle in which the politics and interests of Nawaz Sharif and his daughter stand in conflict with that of Shehbaz Sharif and his son.
Therefore, Prime Minister Imran Khan does not face any serious political or apparent legal and institutional threat, which can end his term prematurely as happened with his predecessors. His troubles stem from the country’s economic challenges, a number of wrong appointments he had made and inability to fulfill many of his electoral promises.
The mutual challenge for the civil and military leadership is how to maintain a semblance of stability in the country, which is vital given its enormous challenges. But creating such optics is extremely difficult because of the sensational media, which loves bad news, and an opposition in which many politicians are fighting for their survival or to protect their political and financial interests. Through media manipulations and aggressive posturing, these forces would keep the entire Pakistan on its toes through frenzied activities and dishing out one conspiracy theory after another.
Yes, there will be a lot of smoke, but without any real fire. Rumours, speculations and conspiracy theories will keep Pakistan’s political scene engulfed with a toxic layer of smog even after winters. For instability and chaos remain in the DNA of Pakistan’s flawed parliamentary form of democracy and corruption remains the price we pay for enjoying it.
-- The writer is Editor-in-Chief, Bol Media Group