Amir Zia
The News
Monday, December 08, 2014
For the beleaguered PML-N government, the worst phase of Imran Khan’s challenge of sit-ins and protests is apparently over – at least for now. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif looks relaxed and so are his close aides. They have concrete reasons to claim that they managed to ride out the storm that seemed to threaten the government and the system in mid-August and all through the month of September and the early days of October.
Allama Tahirul Qadri and his PAT have packed up their Islamabad sit-ins and now wait for some signal to fight another day. The elusive umpire did not raise the finger, leaving these political adventurists high and dry. All the traditional political and religious parties joined hands to save the country’s wobbling and dysfunctional democratic order. They acted with maturity and none of them tried to exploit the PML-N government’s moment of vulnerability.
The PML-N’s relations with the military establishment also seem to have found some uneasy equilibrium on the key geo-strategic and security issues. Barring the thorny issue of the trial of former president Pervez Musharraf on treason charges for imposing the November 2007 emergency, the civilian government has managed to survive by conceding space and allowing the military establishment to call the shots – whether it is on the war against terrorism or relations with neighbours and foreign powers. On the Musharraf issue, however, Sharif and the hawks in his cabinet remain adamant that the show must go on.
Imran Khan – despite the enthusiastic and swelling crowds at his rallies – appears increasingly politically isolated. Notwithstanding the PTI chairman’s frequent verbal tirades against the government and his threats to bring the major cities and then the country to a standstill – on which he and his team are having second thoughts, and appear unclear as to what they really want to do – for all practical purposes, the PTI has scaled down its set of demands. Imran Khan has given up his demand of Sharif’s resignation and wants negotiations with the government to pave the way for a judicial commission to probe the allegations of rigging in the 2013 general elections.
All these are good tidings for the PML-N. It means that Sharif has managed to get hold of valuable time in which he can attempt to reach a settlement with the PTI, quicken the pace of reforms – especially electoral changes which are needed and have been demanded by all the major political stakeholders – improve governance and address those pressing socio-economic issues that are fanning public discontent and anger.
But will that really happen? Will Sharif avail this window to do what needs to be done, showing vision, flexibility, political acumen and sagacity? Ironically, the signals from the Sharif camp are not too encouraging.
Background interviews with some key cabinet members give the impression that the ruling party is in no hurry for a deal with the PTI and wants to carry out reforms at its own snail’s pace as has been done for the past 17 months. The general idea appears to be to let Imran Khan and his rallies lose steam in their due course rather than to concede to any of the PTI’s demands – reasonable or unreasonable – in a hurry. The perception of handing over even a whiff of victory to Imran Khan or a face-saving exit does not appear a prudent strategy to the PML-N hawks.
One of the key federal ministers in the Sharif cabinet told the scribe in a lighter tone that ‘dharnas’ (sit-ins) suit the government as they have sidetracked many of those pressing issues on which the major opposition parties, including the PPP, won’t like to spare the government. “Now every political and economic ill in the country can be attributed to Imran Khan and his sit-ins. It is a perfect excuse to distract the people from the real issues – from the lingering energy crisis to the economic challenges which of course will take time to get resolved.”
The argument may make sense in the near-term but in the longer-term it reflects poor political choices. The prolonged uncertainty, turmoil and tensions are a bad omen not just for the government – underlining its inability to resolve these contradictions – but also for the democratic order which has many detractors who want to overhaul and reset the system.
In a strange twist of events, Pakistan’s political divide is no longer based on the PPP versus the rest, but Imran Khan versus the rest. The traditional political forces can ignore the power of a determined ‘one’ only at their own cost. However, one important link that seems to be missing in this divide or is at least not playing its cards openly is the establishment, which is allowing political players to slog it out among themselves.
As the matter stands now, there appear to be little chances of a negotiated-settlement between the PML-N and the PTI as each side thinks that it will lose more in the public eye in case of any give-and-take. Imran Khan, who wants to settle for nothing less than a fresh poll as a result of any judicial commission probe or his politics of sit-ins, rallies and protests, perhaps sees it as a make-or-break decision for his political career.
Imran Khan’s demand that the government accept his terms of reference for the judicial commission in which he wants ISI and MI officials to help complete the probe from four to six weeks is seen by many legal minds as impossible to accept. The reason: the Supreme Court cannot be dictated how to conduct an inquiry or whom to call for assistance. Even the four- to six-week timeframe proposed by Imran Khan for the completion of the inquiry is too short. According to legal experts, a massive exercise of this nature – to find out whether there was widespread rigging in the elections – needs a longer period.
Given these pitfalls, the question is whether the PML-N and PTI will hold talks sincerely or sit across the table only for public consumption. The indications are that like the past, any fresh round of talks will lack seriousness from both the sides. But for the PML-N, perhaps a bigger challenge compared to Imran Khan is managing its relations with the military establishment, which so far has been constant in its support for the democratic setup. However, a lack of trust on both sides haunts this relationship. If one scratches the surface a little and talks to politicians – be they from the PML-N or any other major parliamentary party – one finds them blaming the ‘hidden hands’ or at least a section of the military establishment for the current political mess. In doing this, they fail to critically evaluate their poor governance and ignore the concerns of major stakeholders on the need to take them on board on important policy decisions. In a nutshell, it is the ‘us versus they’ mentality which also remains the root cause of imaginary or real problems between these two major state institutions.
The civilian leadership will serve the cause of democracy better if it concentrates on providing clean, transparent and efficient governance, taking democracy to the grassroots level by holding the local bodies elections and building national and institutional consensus on vital policy issues.
On these three fronts, the scorecard of the civilian leaders is dismal. They have to improve their game if they are serious about strengthening democracy, which goes beyond the mere exercise of holding elections. The people of Pakistan deserve the fruits of democracy rather than just its tag.
Will Prime Minister Sharif transform himself into the leader the country wants him to be or will he remain hostage to the fears and enmities of the past? This is a make or break decision for him. Sharif’s frame of mind will keep him afloat or force him to commit the same old mistakes - which he must avoid in his own enlightened self-interest.
The News
Monday, December 08, 2014
Pakistan’s political divide is no longer based on the PPP versus the rest, but Imran Khan versus the rest. The traditional political forces can ignore the power of a determined ‘one’ only at their own cost. However, one important link that seems to be missing in this divide or is at least not playing its cards openly is the establishment, which is allowing political players to slog it out among themselves.
For the beleaguered PML-N government, the worst phase of Imran Khan’s challenge of sit-ins and protests is apparently over – at least for now. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif looks relaxed and so are his close aides. They have concrete reasons to claim that they managed to ride out the storm that seemed to threaten the government and the system in mid-August and all through the month of September and the early days of October.
Allama Tahirul Qadri and his PAT have packed up their Islamabad sit-ins and now wait for some signal to fight another day. The elusive umpire did not raise the finger, leaving these political adventurists high and dry. All the traditional political and religious parties joined hands to save the country’s wobbling and dysfunctional democratic order. They acted with maturity and none of them tried to exploit the PML-N government’s moment of vulnerability.
The PML-N’s relations with the military establishment also seem to have found some uneasy equilibrium on the key geo-strategic and security issues. Barring the thorny issue of the trial of former president Pervez Musharraf on treason charges for imposing the November 2007 emergency, the civilian government has managed to survive by conceding space and allowing the military establishment to call the shots – whether it is on the war against terrorism or relations with neighbours and foreign powers. On the Musharraf issue, however, Sharif and the hawks in his cabinet remain adamant that the show must go on.
Imran Khan – despite the enthusiastic and swelling crowds at his rallies – appears increasingly politically isolated. Notwithstanding the PTI chairman’s frequent verbal tirades against the government and his threats to bring the major cities and then the country to a standstill – on which he and his team are having second thoughts, and appear unclear as to what they really want to do – for all practical purposes, the PTI has scaled down its set of demands. Imran Khan has given up his demand of Sharif’s resignation and wants negotiations with the government to pave the way for a judicial commission to probe the allegations of rigging in the 2013 general elections.
All these are good tidings for the PML-N. It means that Sharif has managed to get hold of valuable time in which he can attempt to reach a settlement with the PTI, quicken the pace of reforms – especially electoral changes which are needed and have been demanded by all the major political stakeholders – improve governance and address those pressing socio-economic issues that are fanning public discontent and anger.
But will that really happen? Will Sharif avail this window to do what needs to be done, showing vision, flexibility, political acumen and sagacity? Ironically, the signals from the Sharif camp are not too encouraging.
Background interviews with some key cabinet members give the impression that the ruling party is in no hurry for a deal with the PTI and wants to carry out reforms at its own snail’s pace as has been done for the past 17 months. The general idea appears to be to let Imran Khan and his rallies lose steam in their due course rather than to concede to any of the PTI’s demands – reasonable or unreasonable – in a hurry. The perception of handing over even a whiff of victory to Imran Khan or a face-saving exit does not appear a prudent strategy to the PML-N hawks.
One of the key federal ministers in the Sharif cabinet told the scribe in a lighter tone that ‘dharnas’ (sit-ins) suit the government as they have sidetracked many of those pressing issues on which the major opposition parties, including the PPP, won’t like to spare the government. “Now every political and economic ill in the country can be attributed to Imran Khan and his sit-ins. It is a perfect excuse to distract the people from the real issues – from the lingering energy crisis to the economic challenges which of course will take time to get resolved.”
The argument may make sense in the near-term but in the longer-term it reflects poor political choices. The prolonged uncertainty, turmoil and tensions are a bad omen not just for the government – underlining its inability to resolve these contradictions – but also for the democratic order which has many detractors who want to overhaul and reset the system.
In a strange twist of events, Pakistan’s political divide is no longer based on the PPP versus the rest, but Imran Khan versus the rest. The traditional political forces can ignore the power of a determined ‘one’ only at their own cost. However, one important link that seems to be missing in this divide or is at least not playing its cards openly is the establishment, which is allowing political players to slog it out among themselves.
As the matter stands now, there appear to be little chances of a negotiated-settlement between the PML-N and the PTI as each side thinks that it will lose more in the public eye in case of any give-and-take. Imran Khan, who wants to settle for nothing less than a fresh poll as a result of any judicial commission probe or his politics of sit-ins, rallies and protests, perhaps sees it as a make-or-break decision for his political career.
Imran Khan’s demand that the government accept his terms of reference for the judicial commission in which he wants ISI and MI officials to help complete the probe from four to six weeks is seen by many legal minds as impossible to accept. The reason: the Supreme Court cannot be dictated how to conduct an inquiry or whom to call for assistance. Even the four- to six-week timeframe proposed by Imran Khan for the completion of the inquiry is too short. According to legal experts, a massive exercise of this nature – to find out whether there was widespread rigging in the elections – needs a longer period.
Given these pitfalls, the question is whether the PML-N and PTI will hold talks sincerely or sit across the table only for public consumption. The indications are that like the past, any fresh round of talks will lack seriousness from both the sides. But for the PML-N, perhaps a bigger challenge compared to Imran Khan is managing its relations with the military establishment, which so far has been constant in its support for the democratic setup. However, a lack of trust on both sides haunts this relationship. If one scratches the surface a little and talks to politicians – be they from the PML-N or any other major parliamentary party – one finds them blaming the ‘hidden hands’ or at least a section of the military establishment for the current political mess. In doing this, they fail to critically evaluate their poor governance and ignore the concerns of major stakeholders on the need to take them on board on important policy decisions. In a nutshell, it is the ‘us versus they’ mentality which also remains the root cause of imaginary or real problems between these two major state institutions.
The civilian leadership will serve the cause of democracy better if it concentrates on providing clean, transparent and efficient governance, taking democracy to the grassroots level by holding the local bodies elections and building national and institutional consensus on vital policy issues.
On these three fronts, the scorecard of the civilian leaders is dismal. They have to improve their game if they are serious about strengthening democracy, which goes beyond the mere exercise of holding elections. The people of Pakistan deserve the fruits of democracy rather than just its tag.
Will Prime Minister Sharif transform himself into the leader the country wants him to be or will he remain hostage to the fears and enmities of the past? This is a make or break decision for him. Sharif’s frame of mind will keep him afloat or force him to commit the same old mistakes - which he must avoid in his own enlightened self-interest.
No comments:
Post a Comment