The Real Threat To Democracy

By Amir Zia

The News
January 22, 2013

"The nation waits for the general elections, even if they are likely to bring back the same old faces, scions of the tried and tested feudal, tribal and super-rich urban families to the assemblies under the banner of this or that political party." 

 

It is time to celebrate. The current democratic order, which appeared to be wobbling and on the brink in the wake of Dr Tahirul Qadri’s long march and four-day protest in Islamabad, has triumphed in beating what is being dubbed by many as a ‘nefarious conspiracy’ to derail the system.

The ruling coalition showed sagacity in the way it orchestrated the anticlimax of the nail-biting drama in the federal capital. The mainstream opposition parties, in a rare show of unity, unanimously sent a loud and clear message that no tampering with the democratic institutions will be allowed. Many civil society members – represented by human rights activists and liberals – lit candles and put their weight behind the current democratic order.

In a nutshell, all the democratic forces did their bit to ensure a happy ending to Islamabad’s D-Square sit-in which started with a vow to bring the system down. All Qadri got in the end were promises in line with the constitution that can hardly be described as a game-changer by the standards of “unreasonable” ones, who craved for nothing else but a change.

Conspiracy theories aside, which see Qadri as one of the newest wheelers and dealers in Pakistani politics and an alleged proxy of certain players on the political chessboard, the fact of the matter remains that the Canada-returned cleric’s first attempt to shake the system ended with a humble compromise and the status quo remain intact – at least for the time being.

This, indeed, is a huge achievement for democrats in the murky waters of Pakistani politics, which thrives on convoluted deals, questionable arrangements and treacherous plots.

But after Islamabad’s long march declaration – which includes promises of greater scrutiny of candidates for national and provincial assembly elections and dissolution of parliament before Match 16 – is the threat to the country’s fragile democratic system really over? Has the existing democratic order in any way become more pro-people, fair and transparent? Does it have the capacity to deal with the multiple internal challenges faced by the nation? But the paramount question is: who is the real enemy of democracy? Those who seek continuation of a dysfunctional democracy, which failed to deliver on all key fronts, or the power centres of the army and judiciary so often accused, in private and in public, of trying to disrupt the system?

If history is any guide, enemies of the people often get an excuse to derail democracy because of its inherent flaws and contradictions that hurt every segment of society and threaten the state itself.

Today, there is no dearth of critics who wish to clean the Augean stables before the general elections or even install a caretaker government for a longer term to take tough political and economic decisions in an attempt to put the house in order first.

But others say that timely elections will eventually help bring about the desired change and, therefore, the system must be preserved at any cost.

The nation waits for the general elections, even if they are likely to bring back the same old faces, scions of the tried and tested feudal, tribal and super-rich urban families to the assemblies under the banner of this or that political party. In essence, the power will stay in the hands of the privileged few, who enter parliament without paying their taxes and have a blemished record of limitless greed and corruption, together with the display of apathy toward the plight of the masses, who suffer economic hardships and brave the increasingly perilous law and order situation.

The inability of the ruling elite to deal with the key challenges is manifested in the present crisis of governance, economic mismanagement, rampant crime and terrorism and the crumbling writ of the state that now pose the greatest threat to both democracy and the country.

It is time to confront these realities for the sake of democracy, which we cherish despite the cost Pakistan has paid for its preservation during the last five years.

The main reason for Pakistan’s flawed democracy is our continued denial of the fact that democratic institutions require a modern state to sustain them. A state where mediaeval, feudal and archaic tribal systems still hold sway in large parts of its territory can hardly support a modern functioning democracy. Therefore, for any serious push toward sustainable and strong democracy, doing away with the feudal and tribal systems remains one of the fundamental prerequisites. Ironically, this is not even part of the main political narrative, and nor is it on the agendas of the major political parties.

At best, the current system can ensure the election of members of the same few hundred elite families, largely from the rural areas, to parliament. Many of these families, which also have a stake in industries and businesses, are connected to one another through marriages and family ties. In many cases, members of these extended families represent rival political parties pitched against one another in the same constituencies. As a result, whatever the outcome of the elections, power largely stays in a few hands. Rich urban industrialists have integrated themselves with the rural elite, by design or by default, and behave and act like them. The culture, traditions, values and mindset of the ruling class or classes dominate every sphere of society. And in Pakistan, it is the feudal and tribal mindset that dominates, even though it is incompatible with the 21st-century world.

The representation of the middle and lower middle classes by urban parties like the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the religious groups are no more than a sprinkling in the power structure. Even political families from military background have joined the elite club. These have stakes in the country economic structure both as landowners and industrialists.

This remains one of the main flaws of Pakistani democracy, which has overwhelmingly turned into the dominance of big and small political dynasties which are reluctant to agree to reforms because they want to maintain their hold on the political and economic power structures.

Most of the mainstream political parties, which have no concept of internal democracy, are run like political fiefdoms with all powers centred in the hands of dynastic political families.

To sustain democracy, which goes beyond the process of merely casting votes, it is necessary to bring about change and reforms, so that the political situation does not remain indefinitely in favour of the privileged few.

Lastly, dominance of pluralistic and secular values remains a must in the political fabric of the state for a functioning and successful democracy. There can be a secular state which is undemocratic, but, in the true sense, there can’t be a democratic state which is not secular and pluralistic in nature. There should be greater participation of the people in decision-making, and it is time to give them the right to be equal partners and beneficiaries of the system. Here, the conservative Islamic and rightwing parties and militant groups do not allow this to happen.

Until various stakeholders, including the man on the street, are prepared to address these fundamental issues, democracy will remain fragile and under threat in Pakistan. Unfortunately, there are hardly any forces on the political horizon that can act as the catalyst for this change.

 

Beginning Of The End

By Amir Zia
The News
January 15, 2013

While a handful of ‘politically correct’ liberals and those with stakes in the system argue for the continuation of the system and holding of elections, the country’s objective conditions require a different set of solution

Thousands of Shia protesters braved sub-zero temperature for nearly three days as they staged a sit-in in Quetta, refusing to bury 87 victims of the January 10 twin bombings at Alamdar Road that targeted members of the ethnic Hazara community. Their demand: the army should be called into the restive provincial capital of Balochistan where more than 1,100 of their community members have so far been killed in a spate of bombings and terror attacks during the last five years.
The unprecedented protest by the grief-stricken and vulnerable Hazaras has highlighted how this democratic setup has let them down by failing to provide one of the basic fundamental guarantees provided by the constitution – the security of life and property of a person.
The rows of coffins, waiting for burial, appeared as an epitaph for the Pakistan Peoples Party- (PPP) led government, struggling to complete the last days of its five-year term. A solemn faced Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf listened to the grievances of the leaders of the Hazara Shia community and, short of options, announced the imposition of governor’s rule past midnight. Thus ending not just the misrule of Aslam Raisani’s provincial government but also symbolically marking the unraveling of the existing democratic setup.
Balochistan, long considered Pakistan’s soft underbelly, witnessed steep erosion of the writ of the state under the command of the PPP-led government, which failed to check the growing tide of sectarian violence or take measures to curb the simmering insurgency by hard-line Baloch nationalists. Raisani’s government represented the rule of callous, corrupt and incompetent tribal chiefs, which brought only shame and embarrassment to democracy and its institutions.
The same night in Karachi, similar protests against the Hazara killings were staged outside Bilawal House – the presidential camp office – and two of the main traffic arteries of the city. At Bilawal House, Sindh Information Minister Sharjeel Inam Memon and Senior Education Minister Pir Mazhar-ul-Haq received kicks, blows and slaps from emotional protesters, who forced them to run for their lives in their entourage of expansive vehicles.
The angry crowd depicted the general mood of the vast majority of Pakistanis. Yes, if they could get hold of elected representatives, they would dispense quick ‘street justice’ to them. The tidings could have never been this ominous for these so-called champions of democracy.
Youngsters carrying sticks and firearms kept Karachi’s main MA Jinnah Road and Shahrah-e-Faisal blocked even past midnight. It was rule of the mob as police and paramilitary rangers took a back seat, as they always do in such cases. Terrified motorists and commuters were on their own as many neighbourhoods remained in a grip of uncertainty, amid rumours of violence and bomb explosions. The railway tracks also remained blocked by protesters, snapping Karachi’s rail-link from rest of the country.
Pakistan’s main commercial hub and industrial city has indeed transformed into a gunpowder keg ready to explode under the rule of the PPP-led coalition. With nearly 7,000 people dead in ethnic, political, religious and sectarian violence and incidents of terrorism and gang wars since early 2008 – the premium and revenge of democracy has indeed been high for this teeming city. The key issues relating to Sindh, instead of being resolved, have sharpened contradictions among various stakeholders – from the dispute over the local government system to the delimitation of constituencies. Today, Karachi and the rest of Sindh is all set to burst into a frenzy of hate and ethnic, political and sectarian rivalries. Karachi has seen demonstrations of mayhem and lawlessness many times, but now the stakes are higher, anger and frustration deeper and the state’s writ and government’s credibility negligible.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the state’s writ collapsed long ago. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other Al-Qaeda-inspired local and foreign militants have been on a killing spree, targeting political and religious rivals and security personnel. Top leaders to political workers, and even children like Malala Yousafzai, all remain permissible targets.
The civil and military leaders have been unsuccessful in coming up with a proactive strategy to counter the threat of religious extremism and terrorism. The inclusion of the internal threat to the country in Pakistan Army’s doctrine, while a welcome step, has come too late.
As another chapter of the Great Game in Afghanistan is about to close with the withdrawal of the US troops by 2014, this war-ravaged state appears all set to brace another round of instability and civil war. Pakistani territory will continue to serve as an extension of this conflict – our much touted idea of strategic depth now working in the reverse order. Today, Pakistan has come to offer strategic depth for many players in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, the civil-military leaders fail to inspire any confidence that they are ready for the challenge.
Punjab is bubbling with anger not just because of poor law and order, but also because of growing economic hardships on the back of the energy crisis. No wonder, Dr Tahirul Qadri has managed to mobilise crowds as he marches towards Islamabad, vowing to bring a revolution that overthrows the current ruling elite largely perceived as corrupt and incapable to lead the country. As the federal capital remains under siege, people are listening to what the Canada-returned doctor has to say. He is articulating the grievances of the people, who are desperate for a change – no matter how it comes.
The traditional political players, hoping that the same democratic dispensation will get a fresh lease of life after the elections, stand threatened as many sections of the population are no longer prepared to accept the rules of the game set by these players.
This parliament has failed the country, its people and democracy. People, if they are not manipulated again, are in no mood to allow the return of the same feudal, tribal chiefs, fat-cat industrialists and a handful of ruling families to assemblies in the name of democracy, which stands so open to exploitation and remains corrupt to the core. The rulers have surrendered the country to criminals, forces of extremism and anarchy. They have failed to provide security and ensure the rule of law. The state of Pakistan is all set to implode if measures are not taken to stop and clean this rot.
While a handful of ‘politically correct’ liberals and those with stakes in the system argue for the continuation of the system and holding of elections, the country’s objective conditions require a different set of solution.
But how it will be done and who will bell the cat? These are indeed the two most pressing questions in the murky waters of Pakistani politics where everything is so clear yet so unclear and ambiguous. The longer this situation prevails and the current setup sticks to power, the graver the crisis will become. It is not just the unraveling of the government, but the state itself now stands threatened. There is a need to stabilise the traumatised patient.
The mainstream political parties, unfortunately, do not seem to have the vision, the ability and the capacity to deal with the present crisis. The days of a normal transition, sadly, seem out of reach.
Under these circumstances, everyone – from the man on the street to armchair strategists, analysts and political commentators – is speculating about the future, which is why very few appear ready to place their bet on the possibility of free and fair elections. It seems to be the beginning of the end for the present order. What will emerge from its rubbles still remains shrouded in mystery. But the suspense could end within days. The reverse countdown seems to have started.

The Mood Of The Moment

By Amir Zia
The News
January 8, 2013

The majority of Pakistanis will welcome any change that will take the country out of the clutches of this feudal and tribal democracy, which is corrupt, incompetent and anti-people to its core

Pakistan’s mainstream political leadership appears edgy these days. All of a sudden many politicians seem to have had a revelation that a conspiracy is being hatched to derail the country’s ever-troubled democratic system.
Stalwarts belonging to the ruling coalition as well as the key opposition parties are apprehensive about the future of democracy, despite the fact that the elected government appears set to achieve the rare milestone of completing a five-year term in office. Still, nerves are shaky on both sides of the political divide.
From Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf to the main opposition leader Mian Nawaz Sharif – everyone is trying to send out a single message to the concerned quarters that, despite differences and the exorbitant premium the country paid for keeping this democratic dispensation, political parties won’t allow the system to get derailed ahead of the general elections due sometime later this year.
Is it the oddball called Dr Tahirul Qadri who now apparently threatens the country’s traditional political order, causing nervousness among aspirants for the prime minister’s slot? This maverick Barelvi cleric-cum-politician has effectively highlighted and underlined flaws of the current democratic order, its corruption, its inability to govern, failure to establish rule of the law, curb violence and protect even the life of the common man.
Dr Qadri has been hitting the right chords and articulating many of the pressing life and death issues that confront the masses. No wonder the traditional political forces, with stakes in the system, see his plans of staging a ‘long march’ to Islamabad on January 14 and threat to muster millions of people there an attempt to sabotage the coming elections and stop them from making another bid to assume power.
Whether Qadri’s planned rally will prove a real game-changer or just a bubble and a footnote in history remains in the realm of speculations as the countdown to his January 14 show begins. But the uncertainty about democracy’s future continues to haunt the national narrative and rumours about postponement of elections and installation of a new unelected setup for a longer duration refuse to die.
Many try to read something for the future from the shifting stands and high wire aerobics of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), which wants to change the system by joining Qadri’s bandwagon but, at the same time, is unwavering in its support to the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP)-led coalition in which it remains a snug partner.
While most other major political parties remain on the front foot, criticising Qadri and his plans, the country’s powerful institutions have been quick to distance themselves from plans to transform Islamabad into a La-Pakistan Tahrir Square.
The unusual statement of the army spokesperson categorically denied that Qadri, in any way, enjoys the mighty institution’s support. The superior judiciary also gave reassuring statements that the days of undemocratic changes are now over. Even our good friends, the Americans, said that Washington wants free and fair elections in Pakistan and does not support any individual or party. However, these statements failed to calm nerves and put rumours at rest about a looming change in the country’s political landscape.
As the government drags its feet in announcing election dates, scepticism remains the order of the day in this land of the pure. However, Qadri – the ultimate villain or saviour – is seen more as an instrument for change rather than a serious long-term political player and a contender for power by the forces entrenched in the system.
The supposed role carved out for Qadri and his Tehreek-e-Minhajul Quran (TMQ) remains more of a spoiler that could pave way for the ‘other’ forces to eventually intervene and open a new chapter by pulling down the curtain on the current one.
While the very thought of derailment of democracy sends shivers down the spines of the pious and the politically correct, there remain serious and legitimate concerns about the ability and capacity of state institutions to hold free, fair and transparent elections in the current state of lawlessness, chaos and disorder.
First, the terrorist threat has intensified in the last few years, making it impossible for liberal and secular political forces to openly conduct election campaigns in many parts of the country. Their leaders and candidates remain easy targets for the Al-Qaeda-inspired local terrorist groups, though Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf and other major religious parties are not on the hit-list of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) that has systematically been eliminating its rivals.
Then there are simmering ethnic tensions in urban Sindh and parts of Balochistan that are all set to make the coming elections bloodier than they have been ever before.
The thorny task of the delimitation of constituencies in urban Sindh and preparing error-free voters’ list also remain unsettled issues and are all set to create more complications in the coming days.
The near collapse of the administration and governance in the country also raises serious doubts about the ability of the election commission and other state institutions to hold a free and fair electoral exercise, even according to third world or Pakistani standards.
The very prospect of the return of the same set of corrupt and incompetent ruling elite – dominated by feudal lords, tribal chiefs and super rich industrialists and businesspeople to the national and provincial assemblies – offers a nightmarish scenario for the country, which faces existential internal threats from extremists and terrorist forces as well as grave economic challenges.
For many Pakistanis, ‘democracy for the sake of democracy’ does not seem to be an appealing idea. A flawed and dysfunctional democratic order that fails to address and resolve internal contradictions or offer any tangible solutions to the current set of challenges hardly inspires confidence.
The rot that grips today’s Pakistan is the manifestation of the sad performance of the current parliament and the elected government. It is also true that any extra-constitutional and engineered changes, as witnessed many times in the past and so passionately desired by some in all earnestness, too have equally gone astray, contributing to the mess in which the country finds itself now.
If you ask a common, hardworking and honest urban or rural Pakistani (yes they are still a sizeable number), you will be told that above all else they crave for peace, stability and rule of law in the country.
Once any ruler – elected or unelected – fulfils these three prerequisites for economic development, progress and prosperity, the people will be able to do the rest. The people want a radical change in the manner in which the country is being ruled and governed right now. The current state of affairs is unacceptable to them. It won’t work anymore now. That is the bottom line.
The majority of Pakistanis will welcome any change that will take the country out of the clutches of this feudal and tribal democracy, which is corrupt, incompetent and anti-people to its core. The current ruling elite, or the so-called elected representatives, have been tried and tested time and again and always been found wanting. Their magic has waned. They simply can’t deliver.
In that sense, Dr Qadri and others like him, who demand sweeping reforms, are likely to touch the hearts of many. They might not reap the benefits of their actions, but if they manage to upset the applecart and unleash a popular wave demanding strict accountability and rule of the law, it would be an innings well played.
The rest one should leave to the dynamics of popular politics, which will take its own evolutionary course and is never ideal.

Talking With The Enemy

By Amir Zia
The News
January 1, 2013

Whatever the Taliban supporters and sympathisers may say, the terms of engagement offered by the TTP should be non-negotiable for the government

In more than a decade-long conflict between the Pakistani state and the Al-Qaeda and its inspired local militants, the initiative undoubtedly has fallen into the hands of the extremists. They are now operating from a relative position of strength against the backdrop of directionless and inconsistent government efforts to stem the surging tide of violence and terrorism. The militants are carrying out suicide attacks at will, killing innocent people with impunity and assassinating political rivals and security personnel with cold precision.

The recent offer of talks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which came at the heels of the assassination of Awami National Party (ANP) leader Bashir Ahmed Bilour, is a clear manifestation that the banned terror group has not extended an olive branch to the government, but rather declared its agenda that has no room for a democratic, pluralistic and modern Pakistan. Whatever the Taliban supporters and sympathisers may say, the terms of engagement offered by the TTP should be non-negotiable for the government.

According to TTP’s recent statement, the Taliban want Pakistan to scrap democracy, rewrite the constitution in line with their perceived controversial and oppressive interpretation of Islam, sever ties with the international community and, in a nutshell, act contrary to the UN mandate regarding the war in Afghanistan.

The execution of the 21 kidnapped Levies personnel after the talks offer should remove any doubts about the intentions of the TTP, which has successfully expanded its terror network even to the main urban centres and emerged as one of the biggest internal threats for the country.

The Pakistan Army and security personnel are the prime targets of the TTP and its like-minded groups, as are the ANP and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) for they are all seen as pro-American or collaborators in the US-led war in Afghanistan. The right wing parties, which either act as cheerleaders for the Taliban or maintain a meaningful silence on their atrocities, are not on the hit-list. But they too have been warned to distance themselves from the army.

Some analysts and right wing leaders, who graciously want to forget and forgive all the crimes and carnage committed by militants over the years, see these talks as an opportunity for peace, but nothing can be further away from the reality. While the TTP is on a frontal offensive, the response of the government and state institutions is practically defensive in nature, focusing more on the security of sensitive installations and protection of top government officials and politicians.

The civil and military leadership – from President Asif Ali Zardari to the Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani – despite their routine bombastic statements on tackling the challenge of extremism and terrorism, have failed to provide a proactive joint strategy which could effectively counter the insurgents and establish peace and security in the country. It is basically a fire-fighting approach that could be exhausting and self-defeating even for the mightiest of security establishments.

It is the militants who enjoy the flexibility of selecting the target, date, time and nature of their assaults. The security personnel are on the defensive and expected to perform the Herculean task of staying alert 24/7 to prevent these attacks, which could be anytime and any place in the vast expanse called Pakistan. It is like standing under the full glare of a spotlight and waiting for an unexpected bullet from the dark.

What’s missing is the proactive approach that rests on lean, efficient and precise operations backed by organised intelligence gathering that targets terror cells, disrupts their operations and put militants on the back foot. Along with the absence of proactive counter terror operations, there are hardly any efforts to shrink the space of the narrative of extremists and militants, which should be a cornerstone in the overall efforts to combat terrorism. But unfortunately, the government, the political parties, the civil society and the media are found wanting on this front. Simply speaking, a civil-military partnership and a joint strategy to confront terrorism are non-existent.

It is no wonder then that forces like the TTP and their allies and sympathisers have managed to create a lot of fog and confusion around the real issue of terrorism, which has consumed more than 40,000 lives in Pakistan since 2002 when Islamabad decided to support the US-led war on terrorism in line with UN resolutions.

The basic question that often gets ignored in the crescendo of dissenting voices is: should Pakistan allow its territory to be used for fanning terrorism in the region and around the world by foreign and local non-state actors? If the answer is yes – which is how extremist forces would like it – then the country should prepare to brace itself for being declared a pariah state by the international community and for tougher times ahead.

If the answer is no, then the state should decisively act to establish its writ on its territory.

The arguments put forward by some of the right wing parties that terrorism is the outcome of the presence of the US-led Nato forces in Afghanistan or of Islamabad’s support to international efforts against terrorism is simplistic. Such arguments ignore the fact, by design or default, that Pakistani territory is being used by militants for their operations both here and abroad. The international community is justified in demanding that Pakistan must act against such forces. The militants have a global agenda that stands contrary to the Pakistani state’s interest and the very fabric of its society.

But mainstream political parties and the military establishment seem to have failed to grasp this fact. Their lack of consensus and focus, an unsystematic approach and the duplicity in their actions and stated positions regarding the war on terrorism have exposed Pakistan to unprecedented internal dangers and transformed the country into one of the most dangerous places in the world.

The New Year has dawned with bigger and graver uncertainties about the country’s future and its stability. The state’s capacity to launch any effective effort to defeat the terror network and establish the rule of law and peace appears dim in the coming months as political forces are gearing up for elections due sometime in the first half of 2013. This means that the paralysis or the defensive approach to counter terrorism are likely to continue until the hurly-burly of elections is over. Even after the elections, which are likely to result in more carnage given the current law-and-order situation, the new elected government will take at least a couple of months to settle down before it can concentrate on tackling this existential threat to the country along with dealing with the other pressing problems.

But does Pakistan have the luxury of time at its disposal? Can we afford this continued tragedy of delay? Haven’t we wasted enough time and precious lives in this directionless war on terrorism? And do any of the political parties aspiring to form the new government in 2013 give us any confidence that they have the capacity, ability and political will to take on this challenge?

The words and actions of the ruling and the main opposition parties hardly offer any ray of hope as the country sinks deeper into its self-inflicted crisis and appears all set to implode – not at the hands of any outside forces, but by the enemy from within. But are we prepared to recognise this enemy? 2013 again offers us this final choice with a pressing warning that there is not much time at our disposal.