Smoke Without Fire

By Amir Zia
Bol News Weekly
Dec. 19, 2021
 
Instability and chaos remain in the DNA of Pakistan’s flawed parliamentary form of democracy and corruption remains the price we pay for enjoying it. 

If one believes the dominant narrative in Pakistani media, then Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government is already on the ropes, and struggling to reach the finishing line of its five-year term. The toxic smog of allegations, speculations, leaked audios and videos and conspiracy theories is so strong and overwhelming that Pakistan’s political outlook has started to appear more and more uncertain, bleak and perilous.
If one set of prominent conspiracy theorists claim that they can sense serious moves aimed at forcing an in-house change in the Parliament, the other set sees Punjab as the soft-underbelly of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) government from where the current set-up would start to sink first. At both the center and Punjab, the PTI government enjoys a razor thin majority with the support of its coalition partners who, according to some commentators, can ditch the Prime Minister anytime now, because he no longer stands on the same page with the mighty military establishment.
This line of argument is being pushed and repeated so aggressively on both the mainstream and social media against the backdrop of the country’s ever-growing and exacerbating economic woes that the PTI Government, perhaps even for many of its supporters, appears to be standing on a weak wicket now.
Prime Minister Imran Khan should at least give credit to his political rivals, especially the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leaders for their deft handling of the media.
On one hand, the opposition and its allies in the media have managed to create an atmosphere of continued political uncertainty and, on the other, they successfully painted some of the most corrupt politicians as mere victims of the accountability drive, which unfortunately failed to take off because of the country’s poor and flawed investigation, prosecution and judicial system.
But the PTI government’s much publicized accountability campaign and its challenges merit a separate article, which we can keep for some other day. Let’s just focus on the question whether the PTI government would be able to complete its five-year term under Imran Khan’s watch, given all the country’s economic challenges and many of the wrong turns it took since assuming power in August 2018.
Imran Khan’s detractors base their argument of his government’s weakness and vulnerability on the over-blown assumption that it is no longer on the same page with the military leadership as it used to be.
Prime Minister’s recent tiff over the appointment of the ISI chief is being cited as the main reason for his falling out with the establishment, which they allege was instrumental in the PTI’s ascent to power. Then, there are several other issues on which Imran Khan does not appear to see eye-to-eye with the military leadership, including his handling of relations with the United States. The critics also claim that the Prime Minister has also ignored some of the recommendations made by the military leadership, including the one given on the handling affairs in Punjab and bringing a pair of experienced hands as the Chief Minister of the province.
But the media and opposition gurus appear to be blowing these differences out of proportion and in an exaggerated manner as they have not reached the point of no return where any side would want to push for a final showdown. Background interviews with a couple of PTI leaders and security officials reveal that the controversy over the appointment of the ISI is now over and there is business as usual between the military and civil leadership. And this point-of-view holds weight as, given the grave internal and external challenges faced by the country, there is hardly any room for adventurism and brinkmanship.
Therefore, stability and continuation of the system remain the top priority of all the key players and decision-makers as their plate is already full of challenges – from threats on the eastern and western frontiers to that of fighting the twin ghost of extremism and terrorism, and handling the law and order situation of Balochistan. On the external front, managing the tricky ties with the United States and the Western bloc as well as balancing relations with China and other friendly countries — they all require the civil and military leadership to maintain a united front.
Although there is a sustained campaign by the opposition politicians, especially the PML-N, to malign the Pakistan Army by holding it responsible for their failure and the ignominious ouster of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from power on corruption charges, the leaking of Panama Papers was an international scandal the credit of which cannot be given to the establishment.
Now by leveling allegations against the Army, Nawaz Sharif and his followers are attempting to create a space for themselves. Similarly, the PML-N faction led by Shehbaz Sharif is trying to woo the establishment and present itself as an alternative to Imran Khan. The PPP is also maneuvering hard to emerge as a dark horse. This means all the major opposition forces want to strike a deal with the establishment.
But in recent years, the military leadership has maintained in all its interactions with the media that unlike the 1990s, it is no longer in the game of making or breaking governments. Since 2008, the establishment has extended support to whichever party that came to power – be it the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) or the PML-N and now the PTI. As a result, all the political parties, which came to power following the 2002 general elections, successfully completed their terms.
In an attempt to stay out of controversies, the Army has decided to stay away from the electoral activities and did not involve itself in any of election duties in the by-polls and even excused itself from transporting ballot boxes in military helicopters during the last Gilgit-Baltistan general elections.
While the Army is trying to play with a straight bat, the mature leaders of the key opposition parties, despite their aggressive posturing, are also in no mood to upset the apple-cart when the PTI government is in the fourth year of its term. They know that it is not the time to strike and force a change as it would set a wrong precedent and make Imran Khan a political martyr and improve his chances in the 2023 elections.
The inaction on part of the opposition also results from the fact that there are huge fissures and a lingering distrust within its own ranks. This division is not just confined to one party against the other, for example the PPP and the PML-N, but also within the parties themselves. The PML-N remains the prime example of this tussle in which the politics and interests of Nawaz Sharif and his daughter stand in conflict with that of Shehbaz Sharif and his son.
Therefore, Prime Minister Imran Khan does not face any serious political or apparent legal and institutional threat, which can end his term prematurely as happened with his predecessors. His troubles stem from the country’s economic challenges, a number of wrong appointments he had made and inability to fulfill many of his electoral promises.
The mutual challenge for the civil and military leadership is how to maintain a semblance of stability in the country, which is vital given its enormous challenges. But creating such optics is extremely difficult because of the sensational media, which loves bad news, and an opposition in which many politicians are fighting for their survival or to protect their political and financial interests. Through media manipulations and aggressive posturing, these forces would keep the entire Pakistan on its toes through frenzied activities and dishing out one conspiracy theory after another.
Yes, there will be a lot of smoke, but without any real fire. Rumours, speculations and conspiracy theories will keep Pakistan’s political scene engulfed with a toxic layer of smog even after winters. For instability and chaos remain in the DNA of Pakistan’s flawed parliamentary form of democracy and corruption remains the price we pay for enjoying it.
-- The writer is Editor-in-Chief, Bol Media Group
 

PPP’s Wrong Choices

By Amir Zia
Bol News Website
December 3, 2021

Since the restoration of “pure, undiluted democracy” in the country in 2008, the PPP has one by one seized all the key civic functions and powers, which once were the domain of the city governments.

Whatever little powers were left with the local governments in Sindh have been snatched away with one stroke by the Pakistan Peoples’ Party’s (PPP) provincial government. Following the passage of the Local Government (Amendment) Bill 2021 in the Sindh Assembly on November 26, all the health and education institutions run by the municipal bodies will be taken over by the provincial government.
Now, according to former Mayor of Karachi Mustafa Kamal, the Karachi Metropolitan Corporation (KMC) has been left only with the responsibility of cleaning public toilets. Unfortunately, the number of this basic amenity is too small in the megapolis to keep the Local Government officials occupied.
Yes, since the restoration of “pure, undiluted democracy” in the country in 2008, the PPP has one by one seized all the key civic functions and powers, which once were the domain of the city governments.
The Sindh Government transformed the Karachi Building Control Authority (KBCA) into the Sindh Building Control Authority (SBCA) and grabbed its control. It set up the Sindh High Density Development Board to manage and allow the construction of high-rise buildings in expensive and densely populated parts of Karachi.
These two moves, while empowering the Sindh Government, also ensured that the representatives of the urban areas had no say in town planning or approval of the new buildings. No wonder, since the creation of the provincial government-run SBCA and the High Density Board, there are growing complaints of massive corruption in the construction sector as new high-rises are being allowed without ensuring sufficient water and natural gas supplies, a proper sewerage system or even the allocation of parking spaces. This urban disaster continues to unfold with the latest announcement by the Chief Minister’s Law Adviser Murtaza Wahab that the Sindh Government has prepared an ordinance to stop the anti-encroachment operation and plans to set up a commission to regularize illegally constructed buildings. Doesn’t it smell of official-sanctioned corruption?
Similarly, the Karachi Water & Sewerage Board (KWSB) – once the domain of the city government – is now under the provincial government, which also rules the lucrative Malir and Lyari Development Authorities.
The latest move of taking over the education and health functions by the Sindh government has now effectively made the local governments more or less redundant.
No wonder Sindh’s urban-based political parties are up in arms against the Sindh Local Government (Amendment) Bill 2021. From the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) and from the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) to the Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) – all have raised their respective banners of protest. Yet, they all seem to lack options which can force the PPP to concede at least some powers to the local governments.
The bitter fact is that if all the elected representatives from the urban areas unite and try to empower the local governments through their vote in the Sindh Assembly, they won’t be able to do it because they lack numbers. Therefore, decisions about the urban areas will continue to be taken by the representatives hailing from the rural areas in line with the golden democratic principles in which there is no room for inclusivity.
Staging trouble-making agitation and calling general strikes is also not an option for any of the opposition parties in Sindh because of their objective constraints. The MQM is now just a shadow of its past and appears to have lost its independent decision-making. One sees a lot of posturing from the MQM leaders, but then they fail to walk the talk. The PTI – the biggest party to emerge from Karachi in 2018 elections – also won’t like to shake the apple cart of Sindh, or especially stoke any trouble in Karachi because it is in the driving seat at the center. In its remaining term in power, the PTI would like to have whatever little semblance of stability it can have in the country’s financial and commercial hub. Therefore, it too won’t go beyond issuing angry statements.
The Jamaat-e-Islami, despite its strong organizational structure and efforts to expand its base in Karachi, does not have the popular penetration to pose any real challenge to the Sindh Government. The same is the case of tough-talking Mustafa Kamal’s PSP.
Option three – challenging the amendment in the court – as exercised by the PSP by filing a petition in the Sindh High Court against the passage of the latest bill also gives one little hope. A similar petition filed by MQM’s former mayor, Waseem Akhter, has been pending in the Supreme Court of Pakistan since 2017. The petitioner has asked for financial and administrative powers to the local governments in line with the Article 140-A of the Constitution and sought constitutional protection for this third tier of representation as given to the federal government. But honourable judges appear reluctant to decide the legislative matter in the court.
The urban-based political parties will have to think of some out-of-box strategy to empower local governments, but for this they must find some allies and partners in the rural areas – not just politicians, but civil society members and intellectuals as well.
As a matter of fact, devolution of power to the grassroots level is a progressive, modern and a pro-people cause. The PPP is swimming against the tide by concentrating powers at the provincial level, revealing its undemocratic mindset and anti-people bias.
However, the urban parties because of their own myopic and opportunist politics fail to capitalize on the weaknesses and unprincipled stance of the PPP in this particular case.
The biggest mistake which parties like the MQM commit on a regular basis is that they always present the case of the empowerment of the local bodies on ethnic lines or by highlighting the rural-urban divide. This line of argument or the demand for a separate province goes in favour of the PPP and, without saying, strengthens its own ethnic or rural Sindh card, although ordinary citizens in the smaller cities, towns and villages of the province have suffered equally, or perhaps much more at the hands of the poor governance and rampant corruption of the PPP leadership.
The urban-based parties should refrain from committing this mistake and instead try to unite the people on the grounds of their problems. The messaging should start from Karachi and Hyderabad where people belonging to one community or ethnicity face the same issues and problems as that of the other.
A multi-ethnic city like Karachi, and a multi-ethnic province like Sindh cannot afford to ignite the self-consuming flames of ethnic politics. The results would be disastrous.
All those forces which want empowered local bodies have to explain to the masses that they are asking these powers not just for Karachi or Hyderabad but for the entire province and the country.
Giant cities like Karachi and even smaller cities cannot grow and progress until their mayors and civic bodies are given both financial and administrative powers. The PPP, which emerges as an absolute villain in this case, should rethink its myopic stance. If the party is serious in reviving its fortunes and placing its young leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari at the Prime Minister House in some near or distant future, it cannot do so by ignoring the aspirations and demands of Sindh’s urban centres.
Empowering the third tier of government and devolving powers is the only way forward. The sooner the PPP and the other mainstream parties realize this, the better.

The writer is Editor-in-Chief, Bol Media Group
 
 

India’s Fake News Factory

By Amir Zia
Monthly Hilal Magazine
November 2021

If on the one hand, India’s Fake News Factory is targeting Pakistan, on the other it is gunning for the religious minorities, especially Muslims, living within the boundaries of this Hindu-majority state, as well as the people of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.

Fake news being produced and disseminated on a mass-scale is now a global challenge, but the infamy of running such a racket at the state level, and that too in the most-crude, blatant and into your face style goes to the much-touted world’s largest democracy – India.
One would have thought that after the exposure of ‘India’s Fake News Factory’ by the EU DisinfoLab in December 2020, there would at least be a brief halt in the production of bogus content by the extremist Hindu state or some change in tactics. However, the operation of India’s “Fake News Factory” continues uninterrupted and unhindered, fanning hate, inciting violence and terrorism, and attempting to advance Indian interests by hook or by crook as the global power centers look the other way.
The EU DisinfoLab exposé – dubbed as Indian Chronicles – had uncovered an enormous fake news operation being run by India from Brussels and Geneva that produced and circulated content mainly targeting Pakistan. It focused on international institutions to advance Indian objectives through a web of resurrected dead media, dead think-tanks and NGOs that spread false content against Pakistan, according to the EU DisinfoLab.
Now, almost one year down the road, if on the one hand, India’s Fake News Factory is targeting Pakistan, on the other it is gunning for the religious minorities, especially Muslims, living within the boundaries of this Hindu-majority state, as well as the people of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir. Indeed, the agenda of the extremist Hindu rulers is divisive, violent and hegemonic both within India, its occupied territories and the region.
Pakistani authorities have significant evidence of as to how Twitter and Facebook accounts operating from India created trends, which fomented sectarian, religious and ethnic hate with the sole aim to destabilize Pakistan. Fake news and other content was created and uploaded on shady websites specifically meant for Pakistan.

Before the Afghan Taliban took over Kabul in August this year, Indians also used Afghanistan to wage Twitter and Facebook assaults on Pakistan. A handful of Pakistan’s liberals settled in Western countries and some fringe elements within the country echoed those trends originating from India and Afghanistan either by design or default.
For example, in October 2021, Indian-managed or sponsored accounts created a #SanctionPakistan trend on Twitter in which Pakistan was held responsible for the victory of the Afghan Taliban, with fabricated stories made against Pakistan Armed Forces and spy agencies. Even India’s mainstream media joined this chorus as its anchorpersons and bands of analysts and commentators echoed a similar line in angry and frenzied voices.
In September, barely a month after the Afghan Taliban’s march into Kabul, one of India’s far-right and warmonger anchorpersons working for the pro-government news channel, Republic TV, claimed that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was operating from the fifth floor of Serena Hotel in Kabul. His concocted story claimed that the ISI officers were helping Taliban in capturing the Panjshir Valley. But, much to the dismay and embarrassment of the anchorperson, Kabul’s Serena Hotel turned out to only have two floors.
The same channel, along with a UK-based Afghan channel, Hasti TV, came out with a bizarre story that Pakistan Air Force (PAF) pounded Panjshir Valley to help Taliban seize it. Soon afterwards, other mainstream Indian channels, including Zee TV and Time Now, also started showing footage of the alleged airstrike which was in fact obtained from a video game.
India Today, considered a serious media outlet, aired a clip of an American F-15 calling it the "first visuals of a fighter jet, allegedly belonging to Pakistan, hovering over Panjshir Valley in Afghanistan." The same channel also showed a photograph claiming that it was a Pakistani F-16, which was shot down. But a U.S. website, military.com, busted this claim by sharing factual information that the photo was actually from an accident of a U.S. F-16 that crash-landed during a training flight near the Arizona-California border on April 24, 2018.
The abrupt cancellation of New Zealand’s cricket team’s recent Pakistan tour was also because of fake information being disseminated from India. 
One can quote example after example of such fake stories churned out by mainstream and new media outlets operating from India and their fronts and shells in various parts of the world. The production and sharing of fake content aimed at Pakistan is a sustained and organised effort rather than an occasional exercise.
Pakistani officials have already raised a red flag over the way social media accounts from India tried to spark sectarian tension and violence ahead and during the Islamic months of Muharram and Ramadan. These conspiracies were foiled by the Pakistani authorities before they could fully unroll and inflict harm to the country.
Similarly, it is not just the sectarian and religious card which the Indians try to use in an attempt to destabilize Pakistan, but they also remain focused on triggering provincial and ethnic discord through fake news and content. On this front, Pakistan’s biggest city and financial hub, Karachi as well as the erstwhile tribal areas in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan province remain the key targets.
Indeed, disinformation has emerged as the latest form of state-sponsored violence from India. 
Social media giants like Facebook and Twitter, mainly ignore the avalanche of fake news generated from India because of their business interests. A recent research report based on the classified documents called the Facebook Papers, obtained by several U.S. publications, shows that this social media platform remains unable to control fake news, hate speech and inflammatory content, including celebration of violence coming out of India – its biggest market. 
The most worrying aspect is that both Twitter and Facebook managements know that their algorithms encourage users to watch violent videos, hate speeches and conspiracy theories aimed at inciting violence both within India and abroad. And all this is being done because of monetary considerations. 
The international community, especially the Western capitals, must connect the dots to find how fake news/content breeds terrorism and violence both within India and the region, particularly Pakistan. In many ways, the Fake News Factory of India and its operations remain as lethal, if not more, as that of terror financing.
The Hindutva ideology of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) remains the main force behind India's fake content operations, which are being carried out with two objectives. The first is to establish Indian hegemony in the region, for which Pakistan is the main target. The second objective is to promote Hinduism within India by squeezing the space for religious minorities, particularly Indian Muslims.
Here again, propaganda is the first weapon of choice of the chauvinistic arm-chair Hindu warriors belonging to BJP or its allied extremists, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), that target Muslims and incite the masses against them by disseminating half-truths or outright lies. These Indian state-sponsored extremists use technologies to generate fake content and manage to ensure centralized control in order to spread disinformation. This disinformation emitting from the social media platforms and shadowy news websites is then legitimized by India’s mainstream media and the BJP and RSS leaders. 
Love jihad is one such theme – propagated both by the mainstream Indian press and social media – in which Muslim men are being accused of marrying Hindu women in a bid to expand their population. This propaganda has resulted in the victimization and even killings of countless Muslim men. 
Then, slaughtering of cows by Muslims is another storyline which sells like hotcakes among many Hindus. This has resulted in public lynching and murder of dozens of Muslims and manhandling and beatings of countless others.
The crackdown against Muslims, particularly in Bengal, in the name of curbing illegal immigration is yet another example in which India’s mainstream and social media has been operating as a vanguard to advance the extremist Hindutva agenda. Poverty-stricken Muslim families are being harassed, rounded-up, forced to leave their shanty homes, beaten and even killed in the name of operations against illegal immigrants.
The Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir is another heart-wrenching story where India’s Fake News Factory is working 24/7 not just to cover up the crimes of Indian security forces against Kashmiri Muslims, but also to cheer them on for all the atrocities and human rights abuses. As the extremist Modi-led government is trying to orchestrate demographic changes in this Muslim-majority state, the hostile Indian media are distorting facts and working overtime to paint the victims as troublemakers and terrorists.
While most of the world capitals have turned a blind eye towards these monstrous acts by India, some international non-governmental organisations working on media and human rights have been trying to expose the world’s biggest Fake News Factory and its human rights abuses. However, they have yet to give context that this whole state-sponsored and promoted fake news operation is responsible for fanning violence and terrorism within and outside India as well as threatening the regional peace and stability.
This is also intensifying polarization within India and sharpening as well as widening its fissures which remain detrimental even for this Hindu-majority state itself.
Pakistani authorities and state institutions, as well as its private media outlets, must work in tandem to expose India’s Fake News Factory at the international level and continue its efforts on a war footing to counter the propaganda and false content generated from its eastern border. 
In the 21^st Century, fighting the enemy on the media front also falls in the ambit of national security. Yes, before the fighter aircraft, warships, tanks, missiles and soldiers move, the words would go to the battlefield first and may decide the outcome of a conflict even before the first shot gets fired.

The writer is an eminent journalist who regularly contributes for print and electronic media. E-mail: amir.zia@gmail.com, Twitter: @AmirZia1

 

The Baqir Blunder

By Amir Zia
Tuesday, October 26, 2021
Bol News

The massive devaluation under Dr. Baqir is just one example of where he led the government on the wrong path. By pushing interest rates to the highs of 13.25% soon after he assumed charge at the SBP, Dr. Baqir ensured that Pakistan’s debt became unmanageable.

Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government has made several questionable appointments, but the most controversial of them all remains that of Dr. Reza Baqir as the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). In London, his recent remarks about the benefits of currency devaluation for Pakistanis living abroad created an uproar, but they are a minor faux pas considering the way he practically damaged Pakistan’s economy and dragged the Central Bank into unnecessary controversies.

What Dr. Baqir describes as a “benefit” for overseas Pakistanis because of a more than 10 percent slide in the value of the local currency against the dollar in recent weeks has added at least 1,890 billion rupees to Pakistan’s public debt in one go. If the interest rate component of around 76 billion rupees is also included in this amount, then it means that Pakistan’s debt has shot up by 1,966 billion rupees – and that too without fresh borrowing.

These calculations have been made by Pakistan’s veteran economist, Dr. Ashfaque H. Khan, who had served as the Finance Ministry Advisor and held the important position of Director-General Debt Office for years.

In dollar terms, this means a staggering increase of around $11.1 billion in the overall foreign debt. Dr. Ashfaque H. Khan’s calculations show that if one adds to this the past impact of devaluations and high-interest rate of 13.25 percent under Dr. Baqir’s stewardship of the Central Bank, then it means that Pakistan’s economy has been burdened by more than $50 billion.

No wonder, Pakistan debt payments have soared by more than 80%  during the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf’s (PTI) government as Islamabad struggles to get the stalled tranches of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) loan of a mere $6.0 billion under its Extended Fund Facility.

Many economists and leading businessmen say that the recent rapid and unnecessary devaluation of the rupee remains beyond comprehension given Pakistan’s liquid foreign exchange reserves of more than $24 billion, record-high remittances of $29 billion, and expected record exports of $30 billion. Just on the basis of a two-month current account deficit, this kind of devaluation remains unjust as it inflicts huge losses to the national economy.

The massive devaluation under Dr. Baqir is just one example of where he led the government on the wrong path. By pushing interest rates to the highs of 13.25% soon after he assumed charge at the SBP, Dr. Baqir ensured that Pakistan’s debt became unmanageable. By bringing in hot money during the initial period of his term at high interest rates, and then now under the Roshan Digital Account, Dr. Baqir has compounded Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities. The situation has deteriorated to a level that in the next fiscal year, after making the debt and interest payments, Pakistan will be forced to make allocations for the development and defence budget on borrowed money, which is a national security risk.

No wonder that for the first time in history, the SBP and its Governor find themselves in the middle of controversies and face severe criticism from various stakeholders, including top economists and businessmen.

The ongoing cycle of devaluation of the rupee – one of the prior-conditions of the IMF for the resumption of talks – has shaken the confidence of businesses, investors and common Pakistanis, who are already suffering the brunt of high global commodity prices.

Pakistan’s economic gains in exports, increased business activity, especially in the construction, IT and textile sectors now stand overshadowed because of the unstable currency rates, which the SBP should have managed rather than orchestrating the free-fall of the rupee.

Economists and business people see a method to the Governor SBP’s madness which appears aimed at wrecking Pakistan economy and preventing its take-off by creating uncertainty on the economic front which feeds political uncertainty and chaos. That’s the reason that not just in the circle of economists, but even many politicians describe Dr. Baqir as an “economic hit-man,” working at the behest of Western players, who want to see a pliant and economically dependent Pakistan.

The long-term objective of these forces appears clear; weaken Pakistan’s economy to an extent that it is forced to compromise on its core national security interests – from the defence budget to the nuclear programme, and the unjust status of the occupied Kashmir to accepting Indian hegemony in the region. Indeed, Dr. Baqir and many others like him in Pakistan’s corridors of power are instruments to serve this purpose. Their actions speak louder than their words.

Many veteran economists had raised red flags at the time of Dr. Baqir’s appointment in May 2019. Their first concern was that Dr. Baqir, being a mid-level official of the IMF — serving as the head of its mission in Egypt — remains too junior to hold the coveted position of the SBP Governor. In the past, Pakistani economists working for the IMF, the World Bank and other multilateral financial institutions were brought in and appointed at key positions, including Dr. Ishrat Hussain and Dr. Shamshad Akhtar, but they all had served at senior positions. An IMF’s country-head – Dr. Baqir’s last position at the Fund in Egypt — is merely equivalent to the deputy-secretary level in Pakistan – a grade 19 position.

This number one concern that Dr. Baqir — being too junior for this post — would fail to do justice as the top-man at Pakistan’s most important regulator of the financial and banking sector has been proved 100 % right. The other point of unease was that his primary loyalties would be with the mother institution from where he was imported. Being a relatively young person, he would like to go back to the IMF’s fold after completing his stint at the SBP. This meant that he would be IMF’s man at the Central Bank, pushing its agenda rather than that of the country.

However, both these objections were ignored as mere conspiracy theories at the time of his appointment. His IMF credentials were sold to the PTI’s inexperienced government, ignoring that Egypt, where Dr. Baqir served last, paid a heavy price because of the prescription thrust by the Fund to fix its economy in terms of whopping inflation, currency devaluation and overall slowdown of its economy.

Strangely, the same set of prescriptions was handed down to Pakistan as many senior economists pleaded unsuccessfully that Pakistan should not turn to the IMF for the 22^nd programme as they all only added to the miseries of the common man without fixing the country’s economy.

The IMF has the same set of conditions for every country whether in Asia, Africa or Latin America that call for high interest rates, currency devaluation, an increase in energy tariffs, and slowing down economic activity. The same conditions were also imposed on Pakistan yet again. The one difference was that in the past, Pakistan’s economic teams had the ability to resist the IMF conditions and get them diluted to get slightly favourable terms. But this time around with a committed IMF representative, Dr. Baqir, on the Pakistani side of the table, the Fund got a walkover.

Pakistani decision-makers, indeed, made a mega-mistake by appointing an imported man whose loyalties with the country remain in question. The sooner this mistake is corrected, the better. And for the future, the lesson is that the government should refrain from giving sensitive responsibilities to individuals, who would pack their suitcases and go back to where they came from once they complete assignments in Pakistan as per the wishes of their masters.

The writer is Editor-in-Chief, Bol Media Group

 

Captain’s no-ball

By Amir Zia
Bol News Oped
October 18, 2021  

If the past is any guide, the appointment of the DG ISI had always been a standard and straightforward affair. The Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) would send his recommendation to the Prime Minister, which got accepted without any ifs and buts. And why not? 

Prime Minister Imran Khan has delivered a ‘no-ball’ at the most crucial stage of his political innings and is likely to pay the price for this mega-slip. His mind boggling, needless and self-harming tiff with the mighty military establishment over the appointment of Director-General (DG) of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has thrown a spanner in an otherwise routine affair within the Pakistan Army. Since October 6 to-date, half of the high-level transfers and postings announced by the military high command remain on hold – a situation which had never occurred in the past. This unprecedented and bizarre controversy has also infused a new element of uncertainty in an already fragile and dysfunctional political system.

What the Prime Minister’s aides describe as a mere “technical glitch” in a bid to downplay the deadlock over the appointment of the new DG ISI has already resulted in a huge trust-deficit between civil and military leaders and blown away the perception – painstakingly build in recent years — of them being on the same-page.

Indeed, the Prime Minister’s rash and obstinate attitude has made Pakistan a laughing stock before the world – among friends and foes alike — and dragged the country’s most sensitive institution into the full public glare for all the wrong reasons. Even many of Imran Khan’s trusted aides realise that their Captain stands on the wrong side of the fence on this issue because of his fixation with an individual and insistence on changing rules of the game — defying both principle and logic. As the impasse drags on, the once harmonious relations between the two power-centres of the country have turned sore despite some hectic efforts by their common go-betweens to control the damage. Insiders on both sides of the fence acknowledge that chances of the Prime Minister being able to thrust his choice on the Army is starkly remote, and he is unlikely to get even a face-saving exit from this self-created controversy.

If the past is any guide, the appointment of the DG ISI had always been a standard and straightforward affair. The Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) would send his recommendation to the Prime Minister, which got accepted without any ifs and buts. And why not? Who would know better than the COAS himself where to place a three-star general? Earlier, during Imran Khan’s own term as Prime Minister, the last two DG ISI – Lt. General Asim Munir and Lt. General Faiz Hameed – were appointed in a similar fashion. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) made the announcement in the same manner as it announced the appointment of Lt. General Nadeem Anjum as the new DG ISI on October 6.

During the previous government of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), both Lt. General Rizwan Akhtar and Lt. General Naveed Mukhtar were also appointed as DG ISI the same way. The then Prime Minister did not ask for three names to select one out of them and none was called for an interview. The COAS’s decision was respected, even though technically DG ISI reports to the Prime Minister. Reporting to the civilian authority, however, doesn’t mean that the selection of the country’s spymaster has become the domain of the Prime Minister, who doesn’t have the required expertise and knowledge to take such a decision.

One should thank the Almighty that political interference had never been allowed in the Armed Forces, although some of our politicos always dreamt of treating them as they treated the Sindh or the Punjab Police in which almost every appointment gets made on the recommendation of this or that heavy or light weight lawmaker or minister.  

The storyline that some ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) cabinet members and Imran Khan’s loyalists initially tried to peddle that the Prime Minister does not want a change in the ISI’s command for the next few months because of the precarious situation in Afghanistan, does not hold any ground. Why? Because as an institution, the ISI always ensured continuity of policies and guarded the core national interests despite the routine changes in its leadership. This underlines the fact that institutions always remain bigger than any individual and it ought to be like that.

As DG ISI, Lt. General Faiz Hameed played an eventful innings. Many of his valuable services and initiatives for the country’s security and advancing the national goals as the top spymaster will never be known and one can only guess at a few of them. But that has been the proud tradition of this institution and its successive leaders. They all work in shadows.

General Faiz has now a new challenge, an assignment before him as Commander of the IX Corps responsible for Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’s security. The new DG ISI would draw strength from the institution just like his predecessors and business as usual will continue in Abpara, Islamabad where the spy agency is headquartered. The country’s most disciplined organisation of the Armed Forces will remain unruffled by the captain’s ‘no-ball.’

But following this so-called notification fiasco, Pakistan’s civil and military leadership must now make concerted efforts to ensure that the country’s premier spy-agency and its leadership must be kept out of all such controversies, and away from the public radar as much as possible. Pushing the ISI and its top official in the limelight should always be a big no under all circumstances. The strength and effectiveness of spy work lies in anonymity. Even its top boss – the public face of the agency – must be kept away from the media glare.

At the same time, it is a moment of reckoning for Prime Minister Imran Khan and his aides. They need to ponder over the fallout of this self-created, unnecessary controversy. What did they gain out of it and what did they lose? The advisable course would be to focus on the damage control – which should start immediately. Taking a step back by the Prime Minister would be a small beginning in this direction. The sooner the suspense ends over DG ISI’s appointment, and the matter gets resolved, the better it is for the government, the system, and the country.

The takeaway lesson: No one should try to dictate to institutions on personal whims and wishes. This weakens the system and results in confrontation among institutions which Pakistan can ill-afford at this critical juncture.

Prime Minister Imran Khan’s besieged government already has many fronts to worry about, including the country’s lingering economic woes, the derailed accountability process, strained relations with the United States, and confrontation with India over the occupied Kashmir, a volatile Afghanistan on the west… the list can go on and on. Therefore, this is not the time, Mr. Prime Minister, to lock horns with the institution that has remained supportive to your house of cards all through. Rather, the civil and military leadership should work in tandem to pull the country out of the crisis. Therefore, remaining on the same page is vital.

The skipper should refrain from throwing any more “no-balls” as his quota of bad political deliveries has already been exhausted. He should rather work to restore trust among institutions and deliver on at least some of his election promises in the remaining two years of his term rather than picking up avoidable battles.

The writer is Editor-in-Chief, Bol Media Group