A Bad Peace Will Keep The Pot Boiling

By Amir Zia
Monday, August 19, 2013
The News   

Only an economically and militarily strong Pakistan can negotiate good peace with India. For a ‘bad peace’ will keep the pot boiling.Yes, in politics and international diplomacy, state interests are permanent and should not be compromised because of today’s constraints and weaknesses.


It has now become an ominous pattern. Pakistan and India – the two nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours – take baby steps stretching over months and years to bring some normality in their often frosty and tense relations, but then one single event pushes them back to almost the same point from where they started their peace efforts.
The pendulum of emotions moves from one extreme to another with the blink of an eye. On a good day, it is the peaceniks, who dominate the narrative on both sides of the border. The deep cultural and historical bonds between Pakistanis and Indians are articulated and explored. Dreamers talk about prospects of building and expanding trade and economic ties and creating common markets. Greater people-to-people contact and effortless travelling between the two countries seem within grasp. The mere talk about dividends of peace and cooperation allure and fascinate many minds.
During these brief flashes of tranquility, even the two governments talk the right talk. At least for the public consumption, the need for peace, building trust and resolving protracted disputes take the center stage. The first and the second channel diplomatic efforts – all seem to move in the correct direction.
But then the hawks strike back. One isolated event triggers a chain reaction, trouncing doves and their peace narrative. Sometimes it is tensions and skirmishes between soldiers of the two sides at the disputed Kashmir frontier that comes as a blow for the peace efforts, as we have witnessed recently. At other times it could be the murder of an Indian prisoner in a Pakistani jail and a similar tit-for-tat killing of a Pakistani inmate in India that sets the ball of tensions rolling with a fresh impetus. Terror assaults in India – such as that in Mumbai in 2008 and the one on the Indian parliament in 2001 – are the worst-case scenarios that often push the armed forces of these two nuclear-armed nations into an eyeball-to-eyeball standoff.
During such tensions, one always finds Pakistan in the dock. According to New Delhi, the onus of any unwarranted action by an individual, or group of non-state actors is always on Islamabad. Ironically, this Indian position ignores the fact that Islamabad has proved hopelessly powerless in curbing terrorism even within Pakistan. How can it prevent similar actions carried out by the non-state actors in India?
When it comes to the limited flare-ups at the divided Kashmir frontier, it is again the Pakistani side which is held responsible by India. This Pakistan bashing – by the Indian government, its opposition especially the hard-line extremist Hindu groups, and the jingoist media – has also become an oppressive cycle which moves not just with regular intervals but in an identical manner. The aggressive posturing and threatening tone of Indian television gladiators, spitting out fire and venom against Pakistan often border on cheap, distasteful and melodramatic farces. However, they helps explain the mood of the moment in India, which fails to distinguish between government policy and isolated incidents.
The mood in Pakistan on the other hand is overwhelmingly conciliatory. The three successive governments in Pakistan – from the former military ruler Pervez Musharraf to the current one led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif – all made improving ties with India a cornerstone of their foreign policy.
Under Musharraf, there had been a sea-change in Pakistan’s policy toward India as authorities worked to bridle militant groups and curb their crossborder infiltration into the Indian-held Kashmir. Musharraf also showed flexibility on Pakistan’s position on Kashmir and pushed for out-of-the-box solutions. The former Pakistan Peoples’ Party government continued with the policy of reconciliation and attempted to build economic and trade ties with India – one of its few saving graces of the entire five-year term.
Prime Minister Sharif is known for his firm position on having good and friendly relations with India. Being a businessman and industrialist, Sharif is aware of the economic and trade benefits once the two countries start cooperating with one another. And this desire for peace is not just confined to the ruling party. All the major opposition parties in Pakistan support this peace push.
The radical anti-India voices indeed are there in Pakistan, but they do not stand a chance of winning elections. This is in stark contrast to India, where many are betting that the hard-line leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Narendra Modi, is all set to become prime minister in the next elections. In a nutshell, Pakistan appears more prepared and willing for peace with India than New Delhi. It is not just Pakistan’s civilian leadership, but also the military which wants to ease tensions and improve ties.
But Pakistan’s peace overtures are unlikely to get a similar response from its big neighbour, where the hurly-burly of the coming 2014 elections is all set to start in the coming weeks and months. In the run-up to the Indian elections, none of the political parties – be it in the ruling Congress or the main opposition the BJP – would like to be seen getting soft on Pakistan or giving it any real or perceived concessions. In India’s ‘Hindu cow belt’, a strong anti-Pakistan position has many buyers.
However, efforts to find solution to the longstanding mega dispute on Kashmir or relatively small issues of Siachen Glacier and Sir Creek appear doomed also in the mid to long run as Indian leadership do not feel any compulsion to engage with Pakistan in a meaningful manner.
There could be posturing for peace form India, but without any substance and meaning. The reason for New Delhi’s reluctance for any result-oriented engagement with Islamabad lies in the fact that many Indians believe that Pakistan is on a slippery slope with its battered economy, a fast eroding writ of the state, and all its internal contradictions ranging from the challenge of Islamic extremism and terrorism to that of low-intensity conflict in Balochistan.
If the things continue to move as they are, in the mid- to long-term, India appears better positioned to maintain the status-quo on the disputed territory and dictate terms for peace with its growing economic, political and military clout in the world. In the near future, Indians will like to keep any diplomatic engagement with Pakistan confined to the narrow agenda of terrorism and keep the other pressing political issues on the backburner.
This would be done more to maintain pressure on Islamabad rather than bring any qualitative improvement in relations by resolving protracted political disputes.
Therefore, Prime Minister Sharif should avoid showing any undignified haste in his peace bid with India as the time for his ‘great idea’ has not come yet. Any pleadings for the resumption of ‘composite dialogue’ won’t set the ball rolling. The best option for Pakistan is to show restraint in the wake of India’s diplomatic and military provocations as it has been doing now and focus more on putting its house in order in which combating terrorism and reviving economy should be on top of the list. Only an economically and militarily strong Pakistan can negotiate good peace with India. For a ‘bad peace’ will keep the pot boiling.
Yes, in politics and international diplomacy, state interests are permanent and should not be compromised because of today’s constraints and weaknesses.

August Joys

Amir Zia
The News
Monday, August 12, 2013 

There are countless such similar small and big heart-warming real-life tales that explain the meaning and spirit of Pakistan. The country’s ingredients have it all. Let’s revive that spirit and make ourselves worthy of Pakistan, which is our past, present and the future.

The month of August often makes the weather in Karachi lovely. The long spell of oppressive summer heat and humidity usually takes a break somewhere in early or mid-July. Come August and we usually have the proverbial dark clouds hovering in the Karachi skies.
Sometimes, it rains, inundating roads and entire neighbourhoods – as just happened in the recent bout of downpour. But usually, it is just cloudy weather coupled with Karachi’s trademark strong sea breeze, which always makes its evenings so lovely and delightful.
Unlike Europe, where people celebrate sunshine and its magic, in our part of the world all merriment and joy comes with clouds, breeze and rain. They invite and entice many youngsters – and the young at heart – to come out of their homes and enjoy. Street cricket blooms. Families and groups of friends head towards the seafront. Many youngsters remove the silencers of their motorbikes and in droves test their luck as they race around the traffic-choked roads, showing off their skills of one-wheeling, hand-free driving and carrying out other dangerous antics.
The less adventurous souls head to open-air eateries, roadside tea dhaabas or just sit and relax wherever they find an open space. It could be a few of the grassy traffic roundabouts, parks and playgrounds left in the city or just at the corner of some street. This is our typical resilient, courageous Karachi, where the pulse of life keeps beating despite all the killings, crime, chaos, disorder and lawlessness.
During my school days, when Karachi was a much gentler and milder city, getting ‘rented’ bicycles in this kind of weather used to be a huge treat for many of us who couldn’t afford the luxury of owning one. Come clouds or rain, wind or rainwater puddles, we paddled for the sake of paddling from one neighbourhood to another and sometimes to the Clifton Beach. It was pure, simple joy.
At our beloved University of Karachi, the cloudy weather invited some bohemians like me to skip classes and sometimes even semester exams. A small group of boys and girls occasionally slipped to the wilderness of the nearby Safari Park. For some of our companions, it used to be a fairly long walk from the varsity’s Arts Lobby to our favourite hilltop in Safari Park – but the effort was worth it.
There would always first be a debate on whether to take a rickety university bus, called ‘point’, or walk to our destination. Often those addicted to ‘walking’ managed to charm and dictate the majority. The escape from the university was necessary as our ‘friends’ in the stick- and gun-wielding moral brigade of the Islami Jamiat-e-Talaba never liked the way we appreciated the weather. And for peace-lovers like us, avoiding conflict was a preferred choice in our own ‘enlightened self-interest.’
All we needed to celebrate were a few cigarettes in our pockets that we shared to intensify the pleasure of discussion. Plain-living and high-thinking used to be the motto. A cup of tea and the aroma of freshly-lit tobacco was all we needed to be happy.
The month of August also brings Independence Day celebrations. This is the time to hoist the national flag. From an owner of a donkey cart to a plush car, most Pakistanis carry their hearts on their sleeves during this month, proudly waving the crescent-and-star flag on their vehicles and on the rooftops of their huts, houses and office buildings. It is the time when, for a brief period, there appears a rare sense of comradeship, unity and bond among many of the dwellers of this city regardless of their ethnicity, sect, beliefs or political affiliation.
During Independence Day celebrations they become one. The same way they unite while celebrating a cricket match victory – especially against India. (Once hockey used to ignite such passion and fervour.) The same sense of togetherness and oneness that we observe when Pakistan rises to the challenge of some natural calamity – be it an earthquake or floods. These are the occasions that revive and rekindle ones belief in Pakistan and Pakistanis.
And then the ultimate question hits you: why do these same people – who display such charity, benevolence and heroism when the chips are down – stand so fractured, divided and at loggerheads with one another? The failure, perhaps, is of our leadership – political, military and religious – and, of course, the so-called opinion-makers. Whenever you press the right chords of Pakistanis, they respond with passion and a sense of purpose.
But let’s keep the hard and harsh realities of today’s Pakistan aside for a while. This is not escapism, but perhaps not every moment is a moment of self-flagellation. One challenges and defies adverse circumstances by talking of hope and focusing on strengths and positives. And the month of August gives us this opportunity – moments to reflect, ponder, and celebrate.
Like me, there are many simple, ordinary Pakistanis who associate August and Independence Day celebrations with fine cloudy weather and a sense of festivity. It’s the time to sing the national anthem and other patriotic songs with passion as we used to once in our schools and mohallas. (Today, I hear some so-called elite schools in Karachi – on the other side of the bridge – have altogether banned the national anthem. But perhaps this is a matter one should discuss at some other time).
As a child and then as a teenager in Karachi, August 14 meant the neighbourhood people – young and old – coming together to decorate their street or compound of flats with strings of colourful paper and national flags and buntings. There used to be sports events in the morning and those more organised even held music programmes in the evening. And all this was made possible through small donations collected by knocking at every neighbourhood door. But that was a politically apolitical activity carried without the patronage of any party, committee or group. It was the community at work – every paisa accounted for. It was different from the modern-day donation collection by the political and religious mafias, which Karachiites call bhatta.
The generation that participated in and saw the Pakistan Movement as young men and women were still around and in command in the 1970s and 1980s. One could still hear the firsthand accounts of the brutalities and trauma of Partition. You would hear long discussions on how the British manipulated the boundaries in favour of India through the Radcliffe Award and Quaid-e-Azam Mohammed Ali Jinnah got his moth-eaten Pakistan. How overnight ‘the Muslim-majority Gurdaspur’ where Pakistani flags fluttered on August 14, 1947 was given to India and it found a passage to the Himalayan region of Kashmir.
They used to narrate endless accounts of how youngsters from Aligarh University and its affiliate institutions fanned out in the Muslim-majority provinces of British India to mobilise Muslims to vote for Pakistan in the 1946 elections. The stories of heroes of the freedom movement – from Maulana Hasrat Mohani to Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah and Sir Mohammed Iqbal to Sir Syed Ahmed Khan – brought sparkle and pride in the eyes of many, who revered them with their hearts and souls. First-hand accounts, legends and even myths about those incorruptible dreamers and fighters who made Pakistan a reality were still in vogue.
My father, who travelled on board a ship from Bombay to Karachi as a teenager in 1947 along with his younger sister found helping hands from fellow Punjabi travellers, who put up a shelter on the open deck using blankets to save them from the scorching sun. On arrival at Karachi’s City Station, a roadside Sindhi hotelier refused to accept money for the food he served from these new immigrants.
There are countless such similar small and big heart-warming real-life tales that explain the meaning and spirit of Pakistan. The country’s ingredients have it all. Let’s revive that spirit and make ourselves worthy of Pakistan, which is our past, present and the future. A Happy Independence Day in advance.

The Imploding State

By Amir Zia
The News
Monday, August 5, 2013

It would be too simplistic and naïve to brush away the dark episode of D I Khan jailbreak by blaming only the police and accusing its personnel of incompetence and cowardice. The top civilian and military leaders cannot absolve themselves from the responsibility of this mega failure.   

The brazen July 29 jailbreak in D I Khan is another ominous indication of the failing writ of the state in the world’s lone nuclear-armed Muslim nation. It is one more sign that the security institutions of this Islamic republic have started to implode – not with a bang, but a whimper in the face of a determined and resolute adversary.
The painless escape of nearly 250 prisoners – many of them hardcore terrorists – is one of the countless alarm bells that have been continuously ringing in the form of deadly suicide bombings, terror attacks and the reign of lawlessness and mayhem across Pakistan for the past several years. But is anyone on those high and mighty positions paying heed to these warning signs? Is the civil and military leadership grasping the gravity of the situation? Do they have any plan, road map or strategy to end this perpetual state of anarchy?
The state of near-paralysis the government and the security establishment seem to be in about confronting the challenge of extremism and terrorism hardly give one any hope. The rot has set in deep. The Pakistani state appears to be staggering as militants strike one blow after another. It is not just the inaction of civilian and military leaders that is baffling. Perhaps more bizarre is their confused state of mind and lack of clarity on how to deal with the Al-Qaeda-inspired local militants. Unfortunately, the Pakistani leadership seems to be unable to decide whether these militants are enemies of the state or mere estranged friends.
However, the militants are clear-headed about their objectives. They kill and execute security officials and civilians alike without any remorse or apology. The 2012 Bannu jailbreak is still fresh in our minds. The attacks on military headquarters and various other sensitive installations, including airbases, underline the grim reality that our armed forces remain unsafe even in their own backyard. This should give sleepless nights to the army’s hierarchy, but they appear to give the impression that they are still masters of the situation. Ironically, they are not.
The nuclear-armed giant remains unable to act, react or even think clearly. The state is bleeding from a thousand small wounds. The process of implosion of the state has been gaining pace. The signs are visible, but the response of the civilian and military leaders to this existentialist threat to Pakistan is weak, meek and directionless. It is not an alarmist view. The reality is staring us at our face.
The D I Khan jailbreak only manifests what lies in store for the country in the near- to mid-term. The facts of this latest episode are chilling and expose the fragility of the state. The Taliban militants came in the dozens on motorbikes, vans and trucks. Nobody checked or stopped them all through their journey from their hideouts to the D I Khan prison, which all innocent minds thought remained heavily fortified 24/7.
The militants did not blow up the colonial-era main gate of the jail. It was opened for them from the inside. Most of the force deployed to guard the prison melted away as the militants took over. Many police officers and constables took shelter in sewers or locked themselves in this room or that. In a nutshell, it was a total surrender, but not the first one in our chequered past.
However, it would be too simplistic and naïve to brush away this dark episode by blaming only the police and accusing its personnel of incompetence and cowardice. The top civilian and military leaders cannot absolve themselves from the responsibility of this mega failure. It is a chain reaction that started from the top. The security institutions cannot simply pass on the buck to the jail authorities by leaking stories to the media that, despite intelligence reports of an imminent attack, they failed to act.
The fundamental question that needs to be answered is why the police guards and the men of the Frontier Reserve Force acted the way they did. Were some of them in league with the militants? Were they demoralised or lacked direction and sense of purpose? If yes, why? The answer is painfully simple. When the civilian and military leaders themselves appear confused and unable to set their priorities right, how can one expect the ordinary policeman or soldier to act decisively and with a sense of purpose? Okay, we know that Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has declared the war against terror as ‘our war’ – not once but several times. But what’s beyond that? Mere words can be no substitute for action.
Sadly, the initiative in this protracted conflict now lies with the militants and not with the government or the security forces. It is the militants who select targets and rules of engagement rather than the mighty military establishment. The operation in North Waziristan and in other safe havens of militancy and their massive support and finance structure across the country continues to remain a distant dream. The tentacles of the Al-Qaeda-inspired local militant groups are spread wide and deep.
We have just seen an attack on the ISI centre in Sukkur, which demonstrated the wide network of these terror groups. The army leadership seems to be waiting for a cue from civilian leaders, who are unclear whether to talk or fight with militants. They seem to deflect the real issue of extremism and terrorism by raising non-issues. Their short-sightedness and political differences have made even holding the government-sponsored all-parties conference on this vital issue a difficult task.

Most Pakistani leaders – be they in power or in opposition – blame the US drone attacks for terrorism and suicide attacks in the country rather than realising that it is the presence of local and Al-Qaeda-linked foreign militants on our soil that invite these predator flying machines. Indeed, they are playing to the small but organised and vocal pro-Taliban and Al-Qaeda segment of the society that has been holding the popular narrative in Pakistan hostage with their half-truths and narrow world view.
But this policy of appeasing militants, their cheerleaders and apologist is self-defeating. The body count of more than 50,000 Pakistanis, including nearly 4,000 security personnel, killed by terrorists since 2002 shows the massive price Pakistan has been paying through tears and blood.
From Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Army Chief Kayani and from Taliban apologists such as Imran Khan, Fazlur Rehman and Munawar Hasan to the former ruling party, the PPP – all stand guilty and responsible for Pakistan’s current predicaments.
Whatever direction the US end-game in Afghanistan takes, Pakistan would still need to clean its stables and bring its house in order. Before any action, clarity of intention is vital – something that remains wanting in our echelons of power. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif needs to be on the same page with the military on confronting this challenge. He has the majority in parliament and also has many allies who would support this effort. He should not become hostage to Taliban apologists. APC or no APC, it is the time for him to take the lead and own this conflict to save the country.
The civil and military leadership should realise that after two successful jailbreaks and daring attacks on military installations, the militants can pick bigger and more sensitive targets. Already, there are international concerns about the safety of our nuclear arsenal. These concerns gain currency when jailbreaks like D I Khan occur or militants manage to strike the GHQ.
Given the current confusion in the minds of our top civilian leaders, who are caught in a ‘talks’ phobia,’ it would be difficult for foot soldiers to fight with 100 percent conviction. They need to see the enemy in black and white. Any grey areas will only hurt the war efforts. Are the civilian and military leaders up to the challenge or is this process of implosion of the state and its institutions irreversible?
This failing state can still be saved, but for this to happen, the leadership must set its priorities right and act with determination and courage. The objective conditions are indeed alarming. It will take no less than a miracle or larger-than-life leaders to save this ship from sinking. Let’s hope and pray for the best. What else can we do?