By Amir Zia
Monday, Sept 15, 2014
The News
Pakistan certainly needs a revolution – one that is pro-people and pro-poor. In that sense Pakistan’s turmoil is far from over. The sit-in may drag on or fizzle out for the time being; the real point is that Pakistan yearns for a change.
So Pakistan’s most powerful and organised institution – the army – has finally spoken in unambiguous terms yet again that it believes in the supremacy of the constitution and continuation of the democratic process.
The rare press briefing by Director General Inter-Services Public Relations Maj General Asim Saleem Bajwa in which he categorically stated that the armed forces have nothing to do with the lingering political crisis, should help calm nerves in the pro-government camp. It should also put an end to the swirling speculations, rumours and conspiracy theories about the alleged ghost ‘script-writer’ masterminding these month-long protests in the federal capital in an attempt to force Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif quit power.
The message from the army came out loud and clear: this is a political problem and it should be resolved politically. This stance is in line with the army’s policy, which it has been following since the country’s return to democracy in 2008 that the democratic process must go on despite its flaws, contradictions and allegations of widespread corruption and misrule.
The on-and-off straining of ties between the civil and the military leadership on key strategic security and political issues is an irritant, but if the past is any guide then the army has the capacity to nudge politicians to take into account its concerns through patient negotiations, restrained nudging and at times by issuing subtle or candid messages rather than any direct intervention.
This formula has so far worked. It was tried successfully during the previous PPP-led government when it wanted to put the Inter-Services Intelligence under the interior ministry’s control in 2008. Again when Nawaz Sharif and his allies planned to lead a ‘long march’ into Islamabad in 2009 to get the sacked Supreme Court judges including Iftikhar Chaudhry restored. And yet again during the Memogate scandal in 2011-12 which resulted in the resignation of Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, Hussain Haqqani.
Under the current government, the army managed to coax the civilian leaders to at least take ownership of Operation Zarb-e-Azb against the Al-Qaeda linked foreign and local militants after peace talks led to nowhere in the wake of the mounting terrorist attacks across the country.
The ‘selective’ trial of former military ruler Pervez Musharraf proved to be another issue that continues to cast its dark shadows on the civil-military relations. The pace of normalisation of relations with India also remains a concern for the army given its Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hard-line stance against Pakistan.
New Delhi’s recent decision to call-off the secretary-level talks with Pakistan on the flimsy excuse that the Pakistani high commissioner met a Hurriyat leader – an otherwise routine practice – helped to drive the point home that India is uninterested in holding even talks for the sake of talks, let alone starting the stalled composite dialogue process between the two countries.
Against this context, the DG ISPR’s press briefing gave words to the actions of the army that the current political turmoil is not of its making, though on the prime minister’s request Army Chief General Raheel Sharif acted as a facilitator to help bring temperatures down. Prime Minister Sharif squandered this chance by his ill-chosen words on the floor of parliament when he said the army’s role as a facilitator was sought by the protesting leaders – Imran Khan and Allama Tahirul Qadri.
Nevertheless, it remains the responsibility of the main political players on how best they manage to resolve the crisis. The onus to end this political impasse lies primarily with the government and its parliamentary allies and the elements determined to force Sharif to resign.
Our politicians and the media made a mess of the situation by unwarrantedly dragging the army into the political fray by repeated symbolic assertions about the alleged ‘scriptwriter’ or the ‘umpire’ and fanning all sorts of rumours. It, indeed, appears to be an effort – by design or default – to malign the army, which compounded the political uncertainty.
The key question, however, remains whether the definite message from the armed forces will help put an end to this political crisis. Will it bring the much-needed political stability and ward off pressure from the besieged Sharif government? Will it force Tahirul Qadri and Imran Khan to abandon their campaign aimed to dislodge the government through agitation?
The pressure to resolve the crisis and reach face-saving deal is not just on the PAT and the PTI, but also on the government. As the sit-ins drag on this pressure will intensify on both sides, though a lot more on Qadri and Imran who failed to put on a grand street show in Islamabad. The floods also divided the focus, if not shifted it altogether, from their protests.
The deadlock could result in desperate moves by the two sides. It means that the element of uncertainty will continue to haunt the political scene. If the protesting leaders maintain their current rigid position without injecting fresh vigour and muscle to their campaign or trying new tactics, it is bound to fizzle out. This will be a blow to their politics in the short- to midterm. A sensible course for Imran and Qadri would be to take a temporary breather in the wake of the flood calamity, reorganise, go back to the masses, try to find new political allies and get back to fight another day.
Sharif and his parliamentary allies should facilitate the protesters to take this course, which will also provide the government some space to improve performance and correct its course. Government stalwarts must resist the temptation of acting like the opposition. Therefore, provocative statements and point-scoring won’t help. A restrained posture both in words and actions is likely to help the government more in offsetting this challenge rather than escalating tensions.
But the failure of the protesting leaders to bring a million supporters to Islamabad or get a favourable verdict from the elusive umpire does not denote that the government is out of troubled waters.
The unique and first of its kind protest movements in Pakistan’s history by Imran and Qadri helped expose many issues, underlining the fragility of the current system and the dysfunctional state of our civilian institutions. Their criticism – from the flawed election process to the insensitive and anti-people approach of the rulers – touches many hearts.
The pressure will be on Sharif to improve his game. The first 16 months of his government has been marked with slow decision-making, getting bogged down by issues which could easily be averted including the Musharraf trial, and ruling like a ‘monarch’ through his hand-picked kitchen cabinet. Even many PML-N lawmakers feel alienated the way the two Sharif brothers run their affairs at the centre and the Punjab province.
The prime minister should also get out of his fixation of grand projects like motorways and new railway tracks and try to first fix the broken system, ensuring rule of law and bringing peace and stability in the country by defeating the forces of extremism and terrorism against which the army alone is in the forefront.
Pakistan’s democracy of the elite and of the privileged few needs to democratise. It needs to be more sensitive toward the plight of the people. It must concentrate on providing better and clean governance rather than seen as the fountainhead of corruption and all that is rotten in this Islamic republic. Dynastic politics must give way to real democracy in which the middle and lower classes can also have representation in the highest corridors of power.
Pakistan certainly needs a revolution – one that is pro-people and pro-poor. In that sense Pakistan’s turmoil is far from over. The sit-in may drag on or fizzle out for the time being; the real point is that Pakistan yearns for a change. The current lot of parliamentarians can read the writing on the wall and be its catalyst or there will be forces that will challenge the system. The present state of affairs cannot go on endlessly. The army, too, will have to adjust and readjust its position in line with the aspirations of the masses. There should be no doubt about this.
Monday, Sept 15, 2014
The News
Pakistan certainly needs a revolution – one that is pro-people and pro-poor. In that sense Pakistan’s turmoil is far from over. The sit-in may drag on or fizzle out for the time being; the real point is that Pakistan yearns for a change.
So Pakistan’s most powerful and organised institution – the army – has finally spoken in unambiguous terms yet again that it believes in the supremacy of the constitution and continuation of the democratic process.
The rare press briefing by Director General Inter-Services Public Relations Maj General Asim Saleem Bajwa in which he categorically stated that the armed forces have nothing to do with the lingering political crisis, should help calm nerves in the pro-government camp. It should also put an end to the swirling speculations, rumours and conspiracy theories about the alleged ghost ‘script-writer’ masterminding these month-long protests in the federal capital in an attempt to force Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif quit power.
The message from the army came out loud and clear: this is a political problem and it should be resolved politically. This stance is in line with the army’s policy, which it has been following since the country’s return to democracy in 2008 that the democratic process must go on despite its flaws, contradictions and allegations of widespread corruption and misrule.
The on-and-off straining of ties between the civil and the military leadership on key strategic security and political issues is an irritant, but if the past is any guide then the army has the capacity to nudge politicians to take into account its concerns through patient negotiations, restrained nudging and at times by issuing subtle or candid messages rather than any direct intervention.
This formula has so far worked. It was tried successfully during the previous PPP-led government when it wanted to put the Inter-Services Intelligence under the interior ministry’s control in 2008. Again when Nawaz Sharif and his allies planned to lead a ‘long march’ into Islamabad in 2009 to get the sacked Supreme Court judges including Iftikhar Chaudhry restored. And yet again during the Memogate scandal in 2011-12 which resulted in the resignation of Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, Hussain Haqqani.
Under the current government, the army managed to coax the civilian leaders to at least take ownership of Operation Zarb-e-Azb against the Al-Qaeda linked foreign and local militants after peace talks led to nowhere in the wake of the mounting terrorist attacks across the country.
The ‘selective’ trial of former military ruler Pervez Musharraf proved to be another issue that continues to cast its dark shadows on the civil-military relations. The pace of normalisation of relations with India also remains a concern for the army given its Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hard-line stance against Pakistan.
New Delhi’s recent decision to call-off the secretary-level talks with Pakistan on the flimsy excuse that the Pakistani high commissioner met a Hurriyat leader – an otherwise routine practice – helped to drive the point home that India is uninterested in holding even talks for the sake of talks, let alone starting the stalled composite dialogue process between the two countries.
Against this context, the DG ISPR’s press briefing gave words to the actions of the army that the current political turmoil is not of its making, though on the prime minister’s request Army Chief General Raheel Sharif acted as a facilitator to help bring temperatures down. Prime Minister Sharif squandered this chance by his ill-chosen words on the floor of parliament when he said the army’s role as a facilitator was sought by the protesting leaders – Imran Khan and Allama Tahirul Qadri.
Nevertheless, it remains the responsibility of the main political players on how best they manage to resolve the crisis. The onus to end this political impasse lies primarily with the government and its parliamentary allies and the elements determined to force Sharif to resign.
Our politicians and the media made a mess of the situation by unwarrantedly dragging the army into the political fray by repeated symbolic assertions about the alleged ‘scriptwriter’ or the ‘umpire’ and fanning all sorts of rumours. It, indeed, appears to be an effort – by design or default – to malign the army, which compounded the political uncertainty.
The key question, however, remains whether the definite message from the armed forces will help put an end to this political crisis. Will it bring the much-needed political stability and ward off pressure from the besieged Sharif government? Will it force Tahirul Qadri and Imran Khan to abandon their campaign aimed to dislodge the government through agitation?
The pressure to resolve the crisis and reach face-saving deal is not just on the PAT and the PTI, but also on the government. As the sit-ins drag on this pressure will intensify on both sides, though a lot more on Qadri and Imran who failed to put on a grand street show in Islamabad. The floods also divided the focus, if not shifted it altogether, from their protests.
The deadlock could result in desperate moves by the two sides. It means that the element of uncertainty will continue to haunt the political scene. If the protesting leaders maintain their current rigid position without injecting fresh vigour and muscle to their campaign or trying new tactics, it is bound to fizzle out. This will be a blow to their politics in the short- to midterm. A sensible course for Imran and Qadri would be to take a temporary breather in the wake of the flood calamity, reorganise, go back to the masses, try to find new political allies and get back to fight another day.
Sharif and his parliamentary allies should facilitate the protesters to take this course, which will also provide the government some space to improve performance and correct its course. Government stalwarts must resist the temptation of acting like the opposition. Therefore, provocative statements and point-scoring won’t help. A restrained posture both in words and actions is likely to help the government more in offsetting this challenge rather than escalating tensions.
But the failure of the protesting leaders to bring a million supporters to Islamabad or get a favourable verdict from the elusive umpire does not denote that the government is out of troubled waters.
The unique and first of its kind protest movements in Pakistan’s history by Imran and Qadri helped expose many issues, underlining the fragility of the current system and the dysfunctional state of our civilian institutions. Their criticism – from the flawed election process to the insensitive and anti-people approach of the rulers – touches many hearts.
The pressure will be on Sharif to improve his game. The first 16 months of his government has been marked with slow decision-making, getting bogged down by issues which could easily be averted including the Musharraf trial, and ruling like a ‘monarch’ through his hand-picked kitchen cabinet. Even many PML-N lawmakers feel alienated the way the two Sharif brothers run their affairs at the centre and the Punjab province.
The prime minister should also get out of his fixation of grand projects like motorways and new railway tracks and try to first fix the broken system, ensuring rule of law and bringing peace and stability in the country by defeating the forces of extremism and terrorism against which the army alone is in the forefront.
Pakistan’s democracy of the elite and of the privileged few needs to democratise. It needs to be more sensitive toward the plight of the people. It must concentrate on providing better and clean governance rather than seen as the fountainhead of corruption and all that is rotten in this Islamic republic. Dynastic politics must give way to real democracy in which the middle and lower classes can also have representation in the highest corridors of power.
Pakistan certainly needs a revolution – one that is pro-people and pro-poor. In that sense Pakistan’s turmoil is far from over. The sit-in may drag on or fizzle out for the time being; the real point is that Pakistan yearns for a change. The current lot of parliamentarians can read the writing on the wall and be its catalyst or there will be forces that will challenge the system. The present state of affairs cannot go on endlessly. The army, too, will have to adjust and readjust its position in line with the aspirations of the masses. There should be no doubt about this.
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